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BYU

BYU 3 at San Diego State 13

SDSU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+13.4SDSU 71.5%Matt Araiza 44 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 10 · Q3 5:23
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:23 · Matt Araiza 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense+10.8Pregame prior−4.0Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score differential+2.3Time remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:23: Matt Araiza 44 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:02: Carson Baker pass complete to Justin Dinka for 7 yds to the BYU 39 — SDSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. MISSED FG · Q4 10:09: Skyler Southam 26 yd FG MISSED — SDSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:09: Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23 — SDSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20BYU 4th & 2 at SDSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:08SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:39BYU 4th & 6 at SDSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:39SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:16SDSU 4th & 1 at BYU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−1.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:12BYU 4th & 6 at SDSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:11SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:36BYU 4th & 21 at SDSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:56SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:01BYU 4th & 23 at BYU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−3.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:23SDSU 4th & 4 at BYU 27, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−9.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:02SDSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−4.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:09BYU 4th & 4 at SDSU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.8
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−16.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:40SDSU 4th & 10 at BYU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−7.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:40BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 48, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:46SDSU 4th & 3 at BYU 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:37BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.1%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:12BYU 4th & 9 at SDSU 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:13SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
38.3%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
38.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Parker Houston for 8 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
38.3%
Carson Baker run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
38.3%
Juwan Washington run for 6 yds to the SDSt 39 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 14
OWN 29
+3
38.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Juwan Washington for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
38.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Juwan Washington for 3 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+4
38.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 4 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
38.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 46 yds, downed at the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:5360% → 60%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
39.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 16Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+20
39.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 20 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
39.6%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
39.7%
Aleva Hifo run for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
39.5%
WILSON, Zach pass incomplete to ROMNEY, Gunner, PENALTY SDSU offside 5 yards to the BYU46, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
39.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
39.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
39.3%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
39.6%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
40.6%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 13Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-1
40.5%
Carson Baker sacked by Trajan Pili for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 12Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+2
40.2%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+19
40.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 51 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for 19 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:3660% → 60%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
40.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 7 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+6
39.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
39.7%
Aleva Hifo pass complete to Matt Bushman for 22 yds to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
39.6%
Aleva Hifo run for 4 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
39.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for no gain to the SDSt 7Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
39.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
40.2%
Skyler Southam 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.1%
Carson Baker run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
40.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
40.3%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+47
39.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 47 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
40.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
40.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 4 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+20
40.7%
Zach Wilson pass intercepted Dwayne Johnson Jr. return for 20 yds to the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3443% → 42%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
42.8%
Juwan Washington run for 8 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+4
42.8%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
43.0%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
43.0%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 7 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
42.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for 2 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
42.2%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 54 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
41.0%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+12
41.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 12 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+35
40.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 35 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
39.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
39.5%
Zach Wilson run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+3
39.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+4
40.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.3%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
41.9%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jordan Byrd for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+10
40.6%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 10 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
42.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
41.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 8 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+34
41.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 34 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
39.4%
Zach Wilson run for 17 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
38.5%
Dax Milne run for 4 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-10
38.5%
WILSON, Zach pass complete to SIMON, Micah for 8 yards to the SDSU17, PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the SDSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 16
OPP 35
0
39.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Myles CheatumSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 16
OPP 35
0
40.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 16
OPP 35
-5
42.4%
BYU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 21
OPP 40
0
42.3%
Danny Jones punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
40.2%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 9Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
40.1%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
39.1%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
38.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0061% → 57%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
38.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
39.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 4
50
-5
39.0%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-14
40.0%
Zach Wilson sacked by Troy Cassidy for a loss of 14 yards to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 23
OWN 31
0
42.6%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 30 yds, downed at the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 2:1042% → 58%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
42.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 8 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-1
43.8%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
42.9%
Carson Baker run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
50
+8
43.9%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 8 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
44.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Chance Bell for 6 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
44.4%
Carson Baker run for 3 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+1
43.4%
Carson Baker pass complete to Chance Bell for 1 yd to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+7
41.8%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
43.4%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
58.2%
Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
54.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.3%
Aleva Hifo run for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
51.0%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
52.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 5 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
52.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 43
-3
50.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
51.6%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
52.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 6 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
52.5%
Danny Jones punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 6:1955% → 72%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
55.0%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-1
55.3%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+6
53.7%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
55.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 7 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+17
57.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 17 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
58.5%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+10
58.4%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 10 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
59.4%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
59.4%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+2
58.1%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
71.5%
Matt Araiza 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0034% → 38%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
63.9%
Aleva Hifo run for 1 yd to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
65.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
65.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+10
63.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 10 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
62.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 9 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-10
61.9%
Zach Wilson sacked by Tariq Thompson for a loss of 10 yards to the BYU 46 Zach Wilson fumbled, recovered by SDSt Tariq Thompson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0078% → 72%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
77.6%
Carson Baker pass complete to Justin Dinka for 7 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-10
77.5%
JASMIN, Chase rush for loss of 1 yard to the BYU40 (WARNER, Troy), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the BYU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
76.1%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-6
74.6%
Carson Baker sacked by Dayan Ghanwoloku for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
72.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 82 yds · 5:0327% → 24%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
72.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+11
72.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 11 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
72.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
72.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 11 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
71.4%
Zach Wilson run for 13 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
69.1%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner Romney, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
70.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 5 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+21
68.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 21 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
65.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner Romney, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
66.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 7 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
67.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
65.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 3 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
65.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+3
67.7%
Zach Wilson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 9 BYU Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
76.1%
Skyler Southam 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 4:2983% → 90%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+33
83.1%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 33 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
85.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+32
85.8%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 32 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
86.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
86.0%
Carson Baker run for 1 yd to the BYU 8Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
85.2%
Carson Baker run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
90.2%
Matt Araiza 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 13 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
89.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 10 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.1%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax Milne, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
89.0%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-PututauSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
89.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 10
OWN 48
+5
91.4%
Zach Wilson pass intercepted Tariq Thompson return for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:5791% → 93%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
91.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 13 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
91.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 8
50
+2
93.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+3
93.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
93.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 41 yds, downed at the BYU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23MISSED FG
18 plays · 87 yds · 3:254% → 4%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
96.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 6 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+10
95.9%
Zach Wilson run for 10 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
95.8%
WILSON, Zach pass incomplete to SHUMWAY, Talon, PENALTY BYU illegal touching 0 yards to the BYU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+21
96.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 21 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Talon Shumway, broken up by Trenton ThompsonSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
95.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+4
95.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+10
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 10 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
94.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 8 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
95.0%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+12
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 12 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
94.9%
Zach Wilson run for 13 yds to the SDSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.9%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner Romney, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
96.2%
Skyler Southam 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:02
Carson Baker pass complete to Justin Dinka for 7 yds to the BYU 39
+15.6
TD · Q2 0:13
Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
+14.8
FG · Q3 5:23
Matt Araiza 44 yd FG GOOD
+13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com