Try the model
BYU

BYU 42 at Utah State 14

USU
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Maverik Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:53 · Jake Oldroyd punt for 47 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for no gain to the UthSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Home team on offense−53.4Score differential−40.0Garbage-time factor−20.8Pregame prior+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:18: Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 26 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +5.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:53: Jaren Hall run for 16 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +10.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:34: Gerold Bright run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +12.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:47: Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds for a TD — BYU win probability +17.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:12: Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 1 yd for a TD — BYU win probability +13.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00USU 4th & 1 at USU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00BYU 4th & 4 at USU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:52USU 4th & 15 at USU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:31BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 43, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:47USU 4th & 7 at USU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:07USU 4th & 15 at USU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:55USU 4th & 12 at BYU 12, down 21
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:54USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:54USU 4th & 15 at BYU 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:53BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:22BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:18USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:53BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:33BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:34USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:47BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:12BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:31BYU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
57.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
57.6%
Deven Thompkins run for 9 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
57.6%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
57.6%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 51 yds, downed at the BYU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 4:3642% → 45%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
57.7%
Sione Finau run for 3 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+28
57.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Talon Shumway for 28 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
57.6%
Sione Finau run for 2 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
57.6%
Jaren Hall run for 1 yd to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-5
57.6%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+15
57.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 15 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.5%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
57.5%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+20
57.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 20 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.5%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
57.5%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+25
57.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Micah Simon for 25 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.1%
Aleva Hifo run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3FUMBLE
11 plays · 49 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.8%
Deven Thompkins run for no gain to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
55.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
55.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Taylor Compton for 6 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
56.3%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+15
56.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 15 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
56.5%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+7
56.5%
Jordan Love run for 7 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
56.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 6 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
56.7%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the BYU 26 Gerold Bright fumbled, forced by JJ Nwigwe, recovered by BYU Devin KaufusiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 71 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
54.0%
Sione Finau run for 7 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
53.7%
Sione Finau run for 2 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+12
53.8%
Jaren Hall run for 12 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
53.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 4 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
53.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+36
53.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dax Milne for 36 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
53.1%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the UthSt 14 Emmanuel Esukpa fumbled, forced by Shaq Bond, recovered by UthSt Justus Te'i , return for 11 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:1753% → 60%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
52.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 11 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
52.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 22 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
53.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+3
53.1%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+10
53.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 10 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
54.2%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
54.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 15 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
60.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 26 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:1843% → 43%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
57.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Talon Shumway for 12 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
56.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
55.6%
Jaren Hall run for 9 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-3
55.4%
Sione Finau run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
55.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Cameron HaneySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
56.6%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
58.1%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+9
58.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 9 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
58.3%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Kavika Fonua return for 16 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
48.1%
Jaren Hall run for 16 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+19
50.4%
Gerold Bright run for 19 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
50.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 11 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
51.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 3 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
51.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Troy Lefeged Jr.Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-8
51.2%
Jordan Love sacked by Atunaisa Mahe for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
49.4%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5250% → 51%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
49.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 12 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
48.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
48.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Gunner Romney, broken up by DJ WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+8
49.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 8 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
48.7%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11INT
8 plays · 64 yds · 1:4249% → 53%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
49.3%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+23
49.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 23 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
50.4%
Riley Burt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
51.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 1 yd to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+32
48.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 32 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
52.5%
Riley Burt run for 2 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+17
52.5%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Payton Wilgar return for 17 yds to the BYU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:3054% → 66%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
46.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 13 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
44.5%
Jaren Hall run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 2
50
+3
43.8%
Sione Finau run for 3 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
43.8%
Aleva Hifo run for 12 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
43.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 27 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
43.6%
Jaren Hall run for 1 yd to the UthSt 7Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.3%
Jaren Hall run for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 1:5235% → 49%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+34
35.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 34 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
37.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+15
36.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 15 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
38.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 3 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
39.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+9
35.4%
Jordan Love run for 9 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
36.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 10 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
36.7%
Gerold Bright run for 10 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
36.7%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.1%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
41.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1360% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
40.3%
Sione Finau run for 13 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
39.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Dax Milne for 13 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+30
38.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 30 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
41.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+7
41.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
41.4%
Baylor Romney run for 10 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
24.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.7%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
27.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Caleb ReppSimilar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
27.2%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:5377% → 92%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
23.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Talon Shumway for 21 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
21.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Dax Milne for 11 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
21.6%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
21.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 14 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
21.3%
Micah Simon pass complete to Baylor Romney for 13 yds to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, roughing passer (DJ Williams) to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
21.3%
Baylor Romney run for 3 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
11.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Riley Burt for 9 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
12.4%
Riley Burt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
12.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
11.8%
LOVE, Jordan pass complete to COMPTON, Taylor for 22 yards to the BYU48 (LEE, Austin), PENALTY USU ineligible downfield on pass (AVENDANO, H.) 5 yards to the USU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
11.7%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
11.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Riley BurtSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+1
11.6%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 49 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for 1 yd to the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 56 yds · 0:0094% → 95%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
5.8%
Sione Finau run for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
5.8%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+24
5.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 24 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
5.4%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+28
5.4%
Sione Finau run for 28 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
5.2%
Sione Finau run for 1 yd to the UthSt 18Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+1
5.2%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 1 yd to the UthSt 17Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
5.4%
Baylor Romney pass intercepted, touchback. Cam Lampkin return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:206% → 6%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
6.4%
Gerold Bright run for 10 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
6.5%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
6.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 8 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
6.7%
Jordan Love run for 2 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+52
6.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 52 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
7.8%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the BYU 7Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
6.2%
LOVE, Jordan pass complete to MARINER, Siaosi for 7 yards to the BYU0, clock 14:55, PENALTY USU ineligible downfield on pass (ALI'IFUA, D.) 5 yards to the BYU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
5.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan Nathan, broken up by Shamon WillisSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
5.7%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
5.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 11 yds to the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 5:0097% → 100%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
3.4%
Baylor Romney run for 3 yds to the BYU 4Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
3.4%
Baylor Romney run for 3 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
3.5%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Matt Bushman, broken up by Justus Te'iSimilar
Q4 14:31
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+5
3.6%
OLDROYD, Jake punt 42 yards to the BYU49, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USU roughing the kicker (THOMPKINS, D.) 5 yards to the BYU12, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
3.3%
Aleva Hifo run for 10 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
3.3%
Sione Finau run for 4 yds to the BYU 26 BYU Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 16
OWN 16
+4
3.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+77
3.4%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 77 yds to the UthSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
3.0%
BYU Penalty, false start (Chandon Herring) to the UthSt 8Similar
Q4 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
3.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 2 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
3.0%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 0:370% → 0%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+11
0.3%
Gerold Bright run for 11 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
0.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 2 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi Mariner, broken up by Shamon WillisSimilar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+15
0.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 15 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
0.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Heneli Avendano) to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
0.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Riley BurtSimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 15
OPP 43
0
0.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Taylor ComptonSimilar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
0.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 15
OPP 43
-2
0.3%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 29 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 12 Aleva Hifo fumbled, recovered by UthSt Riley BurtSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
0.3%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-6
0.3%
Jordan Love sacked by Austin Kafentzis for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 11 Jordan Love fumbled, recovered by BYU Isaiah Kaufusi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
0.2%
Sione Finau run for no gain to the BYU 11Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
0.3%
Sione Finau run for 5 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+6
0.3%
Sione Finau run for 6 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
0.2%
Sione Finau run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
0.2%
Masen Wake run for no gain to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+4
0.3%
Masen Wake run for 4 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 47 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for no gain to the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
0.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+19
0.1%
Enoch Nawahine run for 19 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
0.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Taylor Compton for 4 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-10
0.1%
LOVE, Jordan pass complete to MARINER, Siaosi for 10 yards to the BYU39, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USU holding (EDWARDS, Alfred) 10 yards to the USU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+13
0.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Enoch Nawahine for 13 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+10
0.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 10 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
0.1%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+73
0.1%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Beau Tanner return for 73 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:47
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds for a TD
-17.1
TD · Q3 7:12
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 1 yd for a TD
-13.4
TD · Q2 0:34
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com