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BYU

BYU 23 at South Florida 27

USF
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:20 · Jake Oldroyd 39 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense−21.4Pregame prior−1.9Garbage-time factor−6.8Score differential−8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:29: Jaren Hall pass complete to Dax Milne for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +4.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:01: Mitchell Wilcox 39 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Coby Weiss Kick) — USF win probability +6.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:44: Jordan Cronkrite 1 Yd Run (Coby Weiss Kick) — BYU win probability +9.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 14:57: Jordan McCloud 2 Yd Run (Coby Weiss Kick) — BYU win probability +17.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:37: Jordan Cronkrite 3 Yd Run (Coby Weiss PAT failed) — BYU win probability +3.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:04BYU 4th & 14 at USF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04USF 4th & 5 at USF 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:09BYU 4th & 20 at BYU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:56BYU 4th & 14 at BYU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:10USF 4th & 3 at USF 24, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:29USF 4th & 8 at USF 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:07BYU 4th & 5 at USF 5, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:36BYU 4th & 4 at USF 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:50USF 4th & 22 at BYU 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−4.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:12BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 15, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−2.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:26BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 38, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.5%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:20BYU 4th & 7 at USF 22, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−9.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:37BYU 4th & 7 at USF 10, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−9.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:17USF 4th & 2 at USF 13, down 9
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:09BYU 4th & 18 at USF 20, up 9
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:29BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:01USF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:57BYU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 42 yds · 4:5660% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.6%
BYU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
39.6%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
39.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Talon Shumway for 10 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
39.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Micah Simon for 5 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
39.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 8 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
39.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
39.6%
KATOA, Lopini rush for 2 yards to the USF35 (REAVES, Greg;BOYLES, Dwayne), PENALTY USF offside defense (REAVES, Greg) 5 yards to the USF32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
39.6%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
39.6%
Jaren Hall run for 3 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
39.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Talon Shumway, broken up by KJ SailsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
39.6%
Aleva Hifo run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-5
39.6%
Jaren Hall sacked by Antonio Grier for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+51
41.1%
Jake Oldroyd 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Jordan CronkriteSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
41.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-5
41.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
40.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
40.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
41.2%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-3
41.2%
Jaren Hall sacked by Greg Reaves for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-10
41.6%
Jaren Hall sacked by Dwayne Boyles for a loss of 10 yards to the BYU 10Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+16
41.8%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 54 yds , KJ Sails returns for 16 yds to the BYU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
42.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the BYU 43 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by BYU Isaiah Kaufusi , return for 1 yd to the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
41.1%
Sione Finau run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+5
41.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, offside defense (Kelvin Pinkney) to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-5
41.0%
HALL, Jaren pass incomplete to LAULU-PUTUTAU,M, PENALTY BYU ineligible downfield on pass (CHRISTENSEN, B.) 5 yards to the BYU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
41.2%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-3
41.7%
Jaren Hall sacked by Rashawn Yates for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
42.2%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 44 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
41.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
41.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
41.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+11
40.8%
Trent Schneider punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 26 , Aleva Hifo returns for 11 yds to the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:2658% → 64%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
42.1%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
41.8%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+11
42.5%
Jaren Hall run for 11 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
41.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
41.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+11
41.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
41.1%
KATOA, Lopini rush for 3 yards to the USF43 (MIMS, Andrew), PENALTY USF 12 men on the field 5 yards to the USF41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+6
40.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 6 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
36.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dax Milne for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
36.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
36.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kevin Purlett for 2 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
35.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Jordan CronkriteSimilar
Q2 14:29
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+15
35.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 32 , Aleva Hifo returns for 15 yds to the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:5864% → 70%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
36.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for no gain to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
36.6%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 8 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
36.2%
Aleva Hifo run for 5 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
35.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Matt Bushman for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+10
35.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 10 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
35.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 16 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
35.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 9 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+11
33.6%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 11 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
33.6%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for no gain to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.5%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
30.1%
Jake Oldroyd 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:0632% → 39%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
31.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+2
31.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+5
31.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
31.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 8 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
32.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
32.3%
Trevon Sands run for 11 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
32.8%
Trevon Sands run for 10 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
39.2%
Mitchell Wilcox 39 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Coby Weiss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 5:2552% → 52%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.4%
Sione Finau run for no gain to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
48.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Matt Bushman for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
47.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Talon Shumway for 4 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
47.5%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
46.3%
Jaren Hall run for 10 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
45.7%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
45.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+12
45.8%
Jaren Hall run for 12 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
44.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+5
44.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
44.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+5
44.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 5 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
45.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
47.7%
Jake Oldroyd 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
51.9%
CRONKRITE, J rush for 9 yards to the USF34 (NWIGWE, JJ), PENALTY USF holding (HARRIS, D) 10 yards to the USF15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
51.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 8 yds to the SFla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
18 plays · 68 yds · 5:1653% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
53.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
54.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
54.2%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
55.2%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
55.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+7
53.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
56.0%
CRONKRITE, J rush for 7 yards to the BYU40 (ALLGEIER, Tyler), PENALTY BYU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the BYU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+4
56.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
56.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
56.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 9 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+13
56.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 13 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
56.7%
Trevon Sands run for 12 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-5
58.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Brad Cecil) to the BYU 6Similar
Q3 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
58.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Trevon Sands for 1 yd to the BYU 5Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
58.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.5%
Jordan Cronkrite 1 Yd Run (Coby Weiss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5443% → 49%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
56.6%
Sione Finau run for 5 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
55.3%
Sione Finau run for no gain to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+32
57.0%
Jaren Hall run for 32 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
51.5%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+29
51.5%
Jaren Hall 29 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:0066% → 61%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
66.1%
McCLOUD, Jordan pass incomplete to McDOOM, Eddie, PENALTY USF pass interference (McDOOM, Eddie) 15 yards to the USF49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 25
OWN 49
-1
64.1%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 26
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 26
OWN 48
+4
62.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jacob Mathis for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 22
OPP 48
0
60.8%
Trent Schneider punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
59.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 9 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-3
57.7%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 20Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 4
OWN 20
-5
60.6%
Jaren Hall sacked by Kirk Livingstone for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 15Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+6
62.0%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 42 yds , KJ Sails returns for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
67.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
67.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
66.8%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
67.6%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+14
66.9%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Chaz Ah You return for 14 yds to the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.5%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
60.6%
Jaren Hall run for 3 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+4
60.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Matt Bushman for 4 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
60.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the BYU 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla Vincent Davis , return for no gain to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:5771% → 53%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
70.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 9 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+1
70.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
70.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 11 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.6%
Jordan McCloud 2 Yd Run (Coby Weiss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:3778% → 80%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
21.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Talon Shumway for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
50
+5
19.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 5 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
19.0%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+6
19.5%
Jaren Hall run for 6 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
19.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 7 yds to the SFla 30 BYU Penalty, illegal block (Brady Christensen) to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 13
OPP 40
+15
19.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 15 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
18.2%
Jaren Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+4
18.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
18.8%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
20.1%
Jake Oldroyd 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:4320% → 21%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
20.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+6
20.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
21.0%
Trevon Sands run for 6 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+6
22.7%
Trevon Sands run for 6 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+41
22.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 41 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
26.2%
Trevon Sands run for 5 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
26.2%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for no gain to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+7
24.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.6%
Jordan Cronkrite 3 Yd Run (Coby Weiss PAT failed)Similar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-15
20.9%
McCLOUD, Jordan pass attempt to MATHIS, Jacob good, PENALTY USF pass interference (ST. FELIX, R) 15 yards to the BYU18, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 65 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
13.2%
Sione Finau run for 6 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
12.7%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 3 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
12.7%
Baylor Romney run for 2 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
12.3%
Baylor Romney run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+4
13.3%
Baylor Romney run for 4 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+26
12.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Matt Bushman for 26 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
11.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
10.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Matt Bushman for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+12
11.5%
Sione Finau run for 12 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
10.9%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
10.9%
Sione Finau run for 5 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-2
11.3%
Aleva Hifo run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 10Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+5
13.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 5 yds to the SFla 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:195% → 4%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
4.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+3
4.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+2
4.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
4.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
2.5%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 22 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
2.2%
Baylor Romney run for 8 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+17
1.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Talon Shumway for 17 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
1.8%
ROMNEY, Baylor pass incomplete to SIMON, Micah, PENALTY USF pass interference (SAILS, KJ) 15 yards to the USF12, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
1.7%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
1.7%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-8
1.9%
Baylor Romney sacked by Antonio Grier for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 18
OPP 20
0
2.3%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Matt Bushman, broken up by Devin StudstillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+97.7
TD · Q4 14:57
Jordan McCloud 2 Yd Run (Coby Weiss Kick)
-17.9
TD · Q3 9:44
Jordan Cronkrite 1 Yd Run (Coby Weiss Kick)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com