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BYU

BYU 21 at Toledo 28

TOL
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:57 · Jake Oldroyd punt for 32 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 23 Devin Maddox fumbled, recovered by BYU Dayan Ghanwoloku
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−2.7Pregame prior−1.6Score differential−3.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:40: Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 75 yds for a TD, (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +10.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:57: Shakif Seymour 18 Yd pass from Mitchell Guadagni (Mitchell Guadagni Pass to Reggie Gilliam for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +22.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:08: Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 3 yds for a TD, (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +18.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:12: Bryant Koback run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +23.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:51: Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +27.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:10TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:38BYU 4th & 4 at TOL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:19BYU 4th & 17 at BYU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at BYU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:02TOL 4th & 4 at BYU 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:37BYU 4th & 19 at TOL 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−2.4
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:37TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:09TOL 4th & 6 at BYU 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:51BYU 4th & 10 at TOL 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−5.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:44TOL 4th & 6 at BYU 9, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−7.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:44BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:57TOL 4th & 3 at BYU 18, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−0.9
    79% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−11.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:57BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:05BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 47, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:42TOL 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:12BYU 4th & 6 at TOL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−2.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 4:09BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:40BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:57TOL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    47.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:08BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:12TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:51TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
44.8%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+15
44.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 15 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
44.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+7
44.8%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+5
44.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
44.8%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
44.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-7
44.8%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Tyler Allgeier and Zac Dawe for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
44.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
46.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for no gain to the BYU 5Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+16
46.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 16 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
45.9%
Jaren Hall run for no gain to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
46.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 9 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-5
45.8%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
46.1%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+15
46.2%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 51 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 15 yds to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
46.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 18 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
47.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 4 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
47.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+2
47.4%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-15
46.9%
GUADAGNI,M. pass complete to PHILLIPS,D. for 6 yards to the BYU34, out-of-bounds (MANDELL, D.), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McKINLEY-LEWIS) 15 yards to the TOLEDO45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
46.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 56 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
47.1%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 7 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+43
47.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 43 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
46.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 6 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
45.6%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
46.0%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
46.7%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5INT
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0048% → 49%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
47.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 17 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
49.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass intercepted Payton Wilgar return for 9 yds to the BYU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
45.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 7
50
-5
45.8%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-5
47.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 5 yds to the 50 yard line BYU Penalty, illegal block (Matt Bushman) to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 17
OWN 40
0
47.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for no gain to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
47.8%
Danny Jones punt for 33 yds, downed at the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:1549% → 51%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
48.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+22
48.7%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 12 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive holding (Dayan Ghanwoloku) to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
50.2%
Ronnie Jones run for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
50.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Mitchell Guadagni for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
50.0%
Ronnie Jones run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+6
49.2%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
50.6%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
50.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for no gain to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+6
49.8%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
51.4%
Evan Davis 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:2049% → 46%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
51.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 13 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
50.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 9 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+17
49.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 17 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
49.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 9 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
48.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 4 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
48.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner Romney, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
48.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+8
49.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 8 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
48.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau, broken up by Derrius MullinsSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
48.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-9
49.5%
Zach Wilson sacked by Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 19
OPP 22
+39
53.8%
Jake Oldroyd 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
53.3%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
53.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
52.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+45
51.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 54 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for 45 yds to the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:3250% → 58%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
49.8%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 7 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+1
49.5%
Zach Wilson run for 1 yd to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-5
50.5%
BYU Penalty, false start (Matt Bushman) to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+32
42.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
44.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
45.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
46.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
46.9%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
47.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Reggie Gilliam, broken up by Devin KaufusiSimilar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
46.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
44.0%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 1:1258% → 58%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
42.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 23 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
40.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
40.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 11 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
39.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
39.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 5 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+13
39.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 13 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva Hifo, broken up by Kahlil RobinsonSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
39.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau, broken up by Tycen AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
40.0%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
41.9%
Jake Oldroyd 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.9%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
47.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Devin Maddox for 13 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
47.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-8
47.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2058% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva Hifo, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
42.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+75
31.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 75 yds for a TD, (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 4:5631% → 34%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
30.6%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
30.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 9 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
30.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 4 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
31.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 13 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
32.5%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
33.1%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+8
33.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
34.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
34.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Reggie Gilliam, broken up by Sawyer PowellSimilar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+14
32.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 14 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
34.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
34.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
32.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
33.7%
Evan Davis 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.7%
Zach Wilson run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
30.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 6 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
30.4%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for no gain to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
31.3%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 42 yds, downed at the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:0131% → 55%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
31.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 19 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
33.3%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+11
34.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 11 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
35.0%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+12
34.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 12 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
36.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Shamon WillisSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-8
36.4%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Uriah Leiataua for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 18
OPP 33
+15
32.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 15 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+18
55.2%
Shakif Seymour 18 Yd pass from Mitchell Guadagni (Mitchell Guadagni Pass to Reggie Gilliam for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
49.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
48.8%
Aleva Hifo run for 2 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
48.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
46.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner Romney, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
49.6%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 32 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 23 Devin Maddox fumbled, recovered by BYU Dayan GhanwolokuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:2756% → 75%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
43.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Talon Shumway, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+20
44.2%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 17 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Tycen Anderson) to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 3 yds for a TD, (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:5033% → 60%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
33.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+23
35.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 23 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
37.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 28 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
39.1%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 4 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-14
39.1%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 1 yd to the BYU 7 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block (Danzel McKinley-Lewis) to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 20
OPP 22
+15
37.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 8 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, personal foul (Chaz Ah You) to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
36.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 6 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.3%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.5%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
49.8%
Zach Wilson run for 7 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-6
47.6%
Zach Wilson sacked by Saeed Holt for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+10
51.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 10 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
47.6%
Jaren Hall run for 6 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
46.2%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-1
46.4%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
48.6%
Danny Jones punt for 52 yds, downed at the Toled 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:0054% → 57%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
54.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 15 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
55.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+5
55.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
55.7%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+15
55.9%
GUADAGNI,M. pass incomplete to MADDOX,Devin (MANDELL, D.), PENALTY BYU pass interference (MANDELL, D.) 15 yards to the TOLEDO44, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
59.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
60.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-1
59.6%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 4
50
+25
56.6%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 41 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for 25 yds to the BYU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
48.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 27 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
44.2%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+6
45.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 6 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
45.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for no gain to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
48.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Talon Shumway, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24FUMBLE
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0057% → 64%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
56.8%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
60.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
58.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
60.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
59.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+18
57.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 18 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
63.7%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+12
63.8%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the BYU 20 Bryant Koback fumbled, forced by Chaz Ah You, recovered by BYU Chaz Ah YouSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
49.8%
Zach Wilson pass intercepted Kahlil Robinson return for 40 yds to the BYU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 27END OF GAME
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:4712% → 12%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
87.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 17 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.0%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
85.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 12 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
83.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Talon Shumway for 10 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
86.0%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Gunner Romney, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
86.4%
Jaren Hall run for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
87.7%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:51
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)
+27.2
TD · Q4 14:12
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)
+23.1
TD · Q3 3:57
Shakif Seymour 18 Yd pass from Mitchell Guadagni (Mitchell Guadagni Pass to Reggie Gilliam for Two-Point Conversion)
+22.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com