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W&M

William & Mary 7 at East Carolina 19

ECU
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadW&M aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreW&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:37 · Jonn Young punt for 38 yds , Jordan Lowery returns for 8 yds to the WmMry 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+29.2Home team on offense+3.6Garbage-time factor+1.1Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:36: Tyler Crist run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Johnston KICK) — W&M win probability +7.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 4:36: Jake Verity 33 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +3.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:03: Jake Verity 22 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +3.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:03: Owen Wright run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47 — W&M win probability +3.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:16: Jake Verity 45 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8W&M made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:22W&M 4th & 1 at ECU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:29ECU 4th & 16 at ECU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:51W&M 4th & 6 at W&M 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54W&M 4th & 11 at W&M 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:37ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:10ECU 4th & 2 at W&M 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:10W&M 4th & 3 at ECU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:09ECU 4th & 3 at W&M 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:30W&M 4th & 10 at ECU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:20ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:16W&M 4th & 6 at W&M 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:36W&M 4th & 16 at W&M 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:03ECU 4th & 5 at W&M 5, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−9.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:42W&M 4th & 1 at ECU 41, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−4.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:16ECU 4th & 9 at W&M 28, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−3.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:16W&M 4th & 10 at W&M 25, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1W&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:22ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:36W&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3888% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
87.6%
Hussein Howe run for 7 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
87.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 17 yds to the WmMry 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
87.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Hussein Howe for 14 yds to the WmMry 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
87.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WmMry 36Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+4
87.6%
Hussein Howe run for 4 yds to the WmMry 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
87.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+12
87.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the WmMry 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
87.6%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the WmMry 20Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
87.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Anthony Watley for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 2DOWNS
13 plays · 48 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.1%
Hollis Mathis pass incomplete to Jordan Lowery, broken up by Ja'Quan McMillianSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.1%
Hollis Mathis run for 6 yds to the WmMry 31Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
87.1%
Hollis Mathis pass complete to Zach Burdick for 12 yds to the WmMry 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
87.0%
Owen Wright run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 3
50
+3
86.9%
Hollis Mathis run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
86.9%
Owen Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+13
87.0%
Hollis Mathis pass complete to Kane Everson for 13 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
86.9%
Hollis Mathis rush over left end for 2 yards to the ECU34, out-of-bounds (BIVENS, Bruce), PENALTY WM holding (Andrew Trainer) 10 yards to the ECU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 20
OPP 46
0
87.0%
Owen Wright run for no gain to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 20
OPP 46
0
87.0%
Hollis Mathis pass incomplete to Jordan LowerySimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 20
OPP 46
+19
87.1%
Hollis Mathis pass complete to Tyler Klaus for 19 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
87.0%
Owen Wright run for no gain to the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
86.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+12
86.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
86.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
86.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+8
86.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the WmMry 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
87.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 4 yards to the WmMry 49Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+5
86.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 5 yds to the WmMry 44Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-7
86.8%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Will Kiely for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
86.4%
Jonn Young punt for 45 yds, downed at the WmMry 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-4
86.1%
Hollis Mathis sacked by Chance Purvis for a loss of 4 yards to the WmMry 2Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 14
OWN 2
+1
86.1%
Owen Wright run for 1 yd to the WmMry 3Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 13
OWN 3
+7
86.3%
Hollis Mathis run for 7 yds to the WmMry 10Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 6
OWN 10
-5
86.4%
George Eberle punt for 40 yds , Tyler Snead returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0586% → 85%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
86.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jonathan Johnson for 6 yds to the WmMry 49Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
86.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier, broken up by Isaiah LasterSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-8
86.1%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Carl Fowler for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
85.1%
Jonn Young punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WmMry 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.4%
Owen Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the WmMry 24Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
85.4%
Hollis Mathis pass incomplete to Kane EversonSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
85.7%
Hollis Mathis run for no gain to the WmMry 24Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
85.9%
George Eberle punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
86.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+7
85.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
85.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Demetrius Mauney, broken up by Gavin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+8
85.3%
Jonn Young punt for 38 yds , Jordan Lowery returns for 8 yds to the WmMry 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 8TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 2:5415% → 23%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
85.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jordan Lowery for 23 yds to the WmMry 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
84.2%
Tyler Crist run for 9 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
83.9%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Zach BurdickSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
84.0%
Owen Wright run for 2 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
84.0%
Jaret Anderson run for 5 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+7
83.9%
Owen Wright run for 7 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
82.5%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, false start (Tyler Klaus) to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
82.9%
Albert Funderburke run for no gain to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
83.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Tyler Crist, broken up by Gerard StringerSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+15
84.1%
Kilton Anderson middle pass incomplete to Amonyae Watson (ROBINSON, Dvndr), QB hurry by PURVIS, Chance, PENALTY ECU roughing passer (PURVIS, Chance) 15 yards to the ECU20, 1ST DOWN WM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
76.9%
Tyler Crist run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Johnston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:2681% → 81%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.5%
Demetrius Mauney run for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
81.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
80.6%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
80.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for 5 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+36
81.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 36 yds to the WmMry 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
82.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for 8 yds to the WmMry 15Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
82.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for no gain to the WmMry 15Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
81.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for no gain to the WmMry 15Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+31
81.2%
Jake Verity 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
80.3%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Kane Everson for 18 yds to the WmMry 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
78.9%
Owen Wright run for 3 yds to the WmMry 46Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+13
78.8%
Owen Wright run for 13 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
78.4%
Albert Funderburke run for 5 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
78.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Zach BurdickSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+2
78.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Kane Everson for 2 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
79.5%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Carl FowlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1180% → 80%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
79.8%
Hussein Howe run for 4 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+6
80.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
81.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
81.1%
Hussein Howe run for 5 yds to the WmMry 49Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
80.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Hussein Howe, broken up by Arman JonesSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
79.6%
Jonn Young punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Lowery at the WmMry 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 12INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:3122% → 22%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
78.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Zach Burdick for 9 yds to the WmMry 23Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OWN 23
0
77.7%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Carl FowlerSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
78.6%
Owen Wright run for 3 yds to the WmMry 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
78.3%
Kilton Anderson pass intercepted Davondre Robinson return for 3 yds to the ECaro 29 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:1480% → 81%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
80.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 22 yds to the WmMry 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
81.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Hussein HoweSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+55
81.0%
Jake Verity 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:3022% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
78.1%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Zach Burdick for 9 yds to the WmMry 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+22
77.0%
Tyler Crist run for 22 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
76.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Kane Everson for 7 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-2
75.0%
Tyler Crist run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-5
76.3%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, false start (Colby Sorsdal) to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
76.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Kane Everson, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
78.2%
Will Michael punt for 40 yds, downed at the ECaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
79.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+21
78.9%
Trace Christian run for 21 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
79.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 15 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
80.1%
Trace Christian run for 4 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
80.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (C.J. Johnson) to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
79.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trace ChristianSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
78.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier, broken up by Isaiah LasterSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
78.2%
Jonn Young punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WmMry 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
77.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Zach Burdick for 1 yd to the WmMry 25Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
77.6%
Tyler Crist run for 3 yds to the WmMry 28Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
78.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Tyler Klaus, broken up by Davondre RobinsonSimilar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+1
79.0%
George Eberle punt for 41 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 1 yd to the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:1779% → 84%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
78.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
78.6%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
78.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trace ChristianSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+15
77.8%
YOUNG, Jonn punt 60 yards to the WM4, Jordan Lowery return to the WM4 (RAMSEUR, Aaron), PENALTY WM roughing the kicker 15 yards to the WM49, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-9
80.7%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Gavin Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 42 Holton Ahlers fumbled, recovered by ECaro D'Ante Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+10
78.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the WmMry 49 WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, Defensive holding (Latrelle Smith) to the WmMry 48Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+43
80.6%
Tay Williams run for 43 yds to the WmMry 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-15
82.7%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to FARRIER, Deondr, dropped pass, PENALTY ECU pass interference (OMOTOSHO, Audie) 15 yards to the WM20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 0
OPP 20
-1
82.4%
Tay Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the WmMry 21Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 0
OPP 21
0
82.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 0
OPP 21
+5
80.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the WmMry 16Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
83.7%
Jake Verity 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.8%
Owen Wright run for no gain to the WmMry 35Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
82.2%
Kilton Anderson deep out pass incomplete to Jordan Lowery, PENALTY ECU holding (GORE, Colby) 10 yards to the WM45, 1ST DOWN WM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
80.5%
Owen Wright run for 2 yds to the WmMry 47Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
80.1%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Kane Everson for 2 yds to the WmMry 49Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+6
80.2%
Owen Wright run for 6 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
79.5%
Owen Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-5
80.4%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Aaron Ramseur for a loss of 5 yards to the WmMry 49Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
82.3%
Albert Funderburke run for no gain to the WmMry 49Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 16
OWN 49
+43
83.2%
George Eberle punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the EASTCRLINA 16 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jonathan Johnson) to the ECaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19FG
15 plays · 87 yds · 4:4184% → 90%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
84.4%
Trace Christian run for 5 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+2
84.7%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+6
83.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
84.8%
Trace Christian run for 9 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
85.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Gavin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+1
84.8%
Trace Christian run for 1 yd to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
85.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 26 yds to the WmMry 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
86.7%
Tyler Snead run for 10 yds to the WmMry 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
87.3%
AHLERS, Holton deep pass incomplete to PROEHL, Blake, PENALTY WM offside defense (Will Kiely) 5 yards to the WM28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+4
87.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the WmMry 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+15
87.3%
Trace Christian run for 15 yds to the WmMry 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
87.3%
Trace Christian run for 6 yds to the WmMry 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
87.3%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 2 yards to the WmMry 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
89.9%
Jake Verity 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:2111% → 11%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
89.3%
Kilton Anderson run for 11 yds to the WmMry 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.4%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jordan LowerySimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.9%
Kilton Anderson run for 1 yd to the WmMry 33Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+17
89.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Owen Wright for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
50
+3
86.6%
Owen Wright run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
86.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Owen Wright for 6 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
87.1%
Jaret Anderson run for no gain to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-2
88.6%
Owen Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:4890% → 96%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
90.0%
CHRISTIAN, Trce rush over left end for 4 yards to the ECU47 (Miles Hayes;Nate Atkins), PENALTY ECU holding (SMITH, D'Ante) 10 yards to the ECU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+15
88.9%
Tay Williams run for 15 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+9
90.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the WmMry 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
90.3%
Tay Williams run for 5 yds to the WmMry 38Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+9
90.3%
Tay Williams run for 9 yds to the WmMry 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
90.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the WmMry 26Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
90.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 3 yds to the WmMry 23Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-5
89.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Tay Williams) to the WmMry 28Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
89.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tay Williams for no gain to the WmMry 28Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
96.4%
Jake Verity 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Zach Burdick, broken up by Gerard StringerSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Zach BurdickSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Zach Burdick, broken up by Warren SabaSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
George Eberle punt for 38 yds, downed at the ECaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:1697% → 98%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
96.8%
Trace Christian run for 9 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+13
97.0%
Trace Christian run for 13 yds to the WmMry 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.0%
Trace Christian run for no gain to the WmMry 41Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+30
98.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 30 yds to the WmMry 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
98.0%
Trace Christian run for 3 yds to the WmMry 8Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
98.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the WmMry 2Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
98.0%
Trace Christian run for 1 yd to the WmMry 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
98.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WmMry 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:36
Tyler Crist run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Johnston KICK)
-7.1
FG · Q4 4:16
Jake Verity 45 yd FG GOOD
+6.5
FG · Q4 11:03
Jake Verity 22 yd FG GOOD
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com