2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreBYU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:44 · Jake Oldroyd punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:01: Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 57 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — MASS win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:15: Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:27: Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 48 yds for a TD MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Josh Wallace) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Skyler Southam kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback Andrew Brito pass incomplete Andrew Brito pass complete to Zak Simon for 3 yds to the UMass 28 Andrew Brito pass incomplete to Bilal Ally George Georgopoulos punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 42 (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:10: Jackson McChesney run for 44 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:43: Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 11BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 15:00BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
- Q1 13:31MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 45, tiedClose callPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:01MASS 4th & 15 at MASS 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 14:15MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 12:27MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 9:08MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 14, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q2 5:43MASS 4th & 25 at MASS 9, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 49, down 49Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:16BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 26, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q3 11:45MASS 4th & 1 at BYU 9, down 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%71% to convertField goal0.3%−0.289% to makePunt-0.2%−0.6average punt
- Q3 7:13MASS 4th & 12 at BYU 12, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%86% to makePunt-0.1%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:13BYU 4th & 11 at MASS 48, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q3 2:55MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 38, down 39Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00MASS 4th & 1 at BYU 1, down 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%59% to convertField goal0.0%−0.294% to makePunt-0.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 11:44BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 9, up 46Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:27BYU 4th & 14 at BYU 17, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 9:01BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:15BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:27BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:08BYU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:10BYU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:43BYU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:47BYU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:16MASS Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%97% to makeGo for two0.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:11BYU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:27MASS Touchdown, down 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:56MASS Touchdown, down 33 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBYUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Isaiah RodgersSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-7
0.9%
Zach Wilson sacked by Xavier Steele for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
0.9%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 48 yds , Isaiah Rodgers returns for no gain to the UMass 38 Isaiah Rodgers fumbled, recovered by UMass Isaiah RodgersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD6 plays · 87 yds · 2:5099% → 99%
Q1 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+57
1.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 57 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
BYUDrive 5TD13 plays · 88 yds · 6:1498% → 98%
Q1 5:29
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+18
1.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 18 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
1.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 7 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
1.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 8 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+10
1.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 10 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
1.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 20 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:15
3RD & 9
OWN 14
-1
2.0%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Cam Roberson for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD1 play · 48 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
1.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 48 yds for a TD MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Josh Wallace) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Skyler Southam kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback Andrew Brito pass incomplete Andrew Brito pass complete to Zak Simon for 3 yds to the UMass 28 Andrew Brito pass incomplete to Bilal Ally George Georgopoulos punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 42 (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
BYUDrive 9TD6 plays · 58 yds · 2:3099% → 99%
MASSDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
BYUDrive 11TD2 plays · 59 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
MASSDrive 12INT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
BYUDrive 13TD2 plays · 22 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
MASSDrive 14PUNT6 plays · -15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 5:43
2ND & 12
OWN 22
-4
0.5%
Randall West pass complete to Josiah Johnson for a loss of 4 yards Josiah Johnson fumbled, forced by Dayan Ghanwoloku, recovered by UMass Zak SimonSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 25
OWN 9
0
0.5%
George Georgopoulos punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 41Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 15
OWN 19
-10
0.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Sadiq Palmer) to the UMass 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD7 plays · 59 yds · 2:5899% → 99%
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+16
0.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 16 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
0.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 6 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+18
0.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 18 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
0.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tevita Ika for 11 yds to the UMass 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17MISSED FG4 plays · 20 yds · 0:4799% → 100%
Q2 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+16
0.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 16 yds to the UMass 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
0.3%
George Georgopoulos punt for 37 yds , Gunner Romney returns for no gain to the BYU 12 Gunner Romney fumbled, recovered by UMass Cam RobersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19TD1 play · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
0.5%
Randall West pass complete to Zak Simon for 12 yds for a TD (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q3 13:16
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-4
0.5%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Jackson McChesney for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21FG11 plays · 41 yds · 4:320% → 0%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
0.4%
Randall West pass complete to Cam Roberson for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 46Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 7
50
+32
0.4%
Randall West pass complete to Kyle Horn for 32 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
0.4%
Randall West pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 5 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+2
0.4%
Randall West pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 2 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
0.4%
Randall West pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 2 yds to the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT10 plays · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:13
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+5
0.4%
CRITCHLOW, Joe pass incomplete to ROMNEY, Gunner, PENALTY UMASS offside defense (MATHURIN, C.) 5 yards to the BYU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
0.4%
Joe Critchlow sacked by Chinedu Ogbonna for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+23
0.4%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Isaac Rex for 23 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-3
0.4%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Jackson McChesney for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
0.2%
Randall West pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 5 yds to the UMass 22Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Randall West pass incomplete to Bilal Ally, broken up by Drew JensenSimilar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
0.2%
George Georgopoulos punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24TD2 plays · 74 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
MASSDrive 25DOWNS12 plays · 73 yds · 0:110% → 0%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+24
0.1%
Randall West pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 24 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
0.2%
Randall West pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 5 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+32
0.2%
Randall West pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 32 yds to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
0.2%
Randall West pass complete to Cam Roberson for 2 yds to the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
MASSDrive 27TD7 plays · 50 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+15
0.1%
WEST, Randall pass incomplete to PALMER, Sadiq, PENALTY BYU pass interference (UDO, George) 15 yards to the BYU23, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
0.1%
Randall West pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 20 yds to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.1%
Randall West pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
MASSDrive 29TD6 plays · 58 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
0.1%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive holding (Melvin Hill) to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 30Uncategorized8 plays · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:27
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 48 yds for a TD MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Josh Wallace) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Skyler Southam kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback Andrew Brito pass incomplete Andrew Brito pass complete to Zak Simon for 3 yds to the UMass 28 Andrew Brito pass incomplete to Bilal Ally George Georgopoulos punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 42 (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
-0.7
TD · Q2 7:10
Jackson McChesney run for 44 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
-0.7
TD · Q2 14:15
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
-0.4