Try the model
LIB

Liberty 24 at BYU 31

BYU
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.2BYU 80.5%Jake Oldroyd 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q2 10:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:54 · Jake Oldroyd 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+25.9Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:36: Micah Simon pass complete to Matt Bushman for 44 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +4.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:11: Baylor Romney pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 41 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +7.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:11: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 41 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +12.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:01: Baylor Romney pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 17 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +7.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:35: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +13.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 1:17LIB 4th & 8 at BYU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:54BYU 4th & 7 at LIB 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:46LIB 4th & 16 at LIB 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:36LIB 4th & 9 at BYU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:26BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:06LIB 4th & 12 at LIB 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:33BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:58LIB 4th & 3 at BYU 6, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.7%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:11BYU 4th & 2 at LIB 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−2.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:46LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:01LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:45BYU 4th & 18 at BYU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−1.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:35BYU 4th & 2 at LIB 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:32LIB 4th & 21 at LIB 39, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:04LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:56BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:36BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:11BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:11LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:01BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:35LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5614% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
85.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
85.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 8 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
85.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
85.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
85.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 8 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+8
85.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
85.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 12 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
85.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
83.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 19 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0884% → 84%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.7%
Aleva Hifo run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
83.7%
Baylor Romney run for 5 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.8%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
83.7%
Sione Finau run for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+10
83.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 10 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+47
83.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 47 yds to the Liber 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
84.0%
ROMNEY, Baylor pass incomplete to ROMNEY, Gunner, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference 5 yards to the LIBERTY2, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3MISSED FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 6:3317% → 20%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
83.4%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
83.2%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
83.3%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
83.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 15 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
83.0%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
83.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 4 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
83.0%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
83.0%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-3
83.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+17
83.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 17 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
82.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
82.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-5
83.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+7
83.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 7 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
80.4%
Alex Probert 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 5:2381% → 81%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
81.3%
Sione Finau run for 5 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+10
81.5%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 10 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
81.7%
Baylor Romney run for 3 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+7
81.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
81.7%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
81.5%
Baylor Romney run for 7 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+9
81.7%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 9 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
82.1%
ROMNEY, Baylor pass incomplete, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference 15 yards to the LIBERTY20, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
82.1%
Sione Finau run for 2 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
82.1%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+10
81.7%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 10 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
82.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the Liber 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
82.1%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
81.7%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
80.5%
Jake Oldroyd 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
80.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
80.8%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Keenan Pili for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 19Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-2
81.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 39 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:4781% → 85%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
80.6%
Sione Finau run for 16 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
85.1%
Micah Simon pass complete to Matt Bushman for 44 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 38 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
84.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
84.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
84.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
83.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
83.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
83.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 13 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
83.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+2
83.8%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+4
83.8%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
83.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian King, broken up by Dayan GhanwolokuSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
84.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Johnny Huntley, broken up by Austin LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5085% → 86%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
85.4%
ROMNEY, Baylor pass incomplete to KATOA, Lopini (BENTON, E.), PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the BYU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+8
84.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 8 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-2
84.9%
Baylor Romney sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+8
85.5%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 8 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
85.6%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 43 yds, downed at the Liber 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
85.8%
CALVERT, S. pass complete to FRITH, N. for 19 yards to the LIBERTY35, PENALTY LIBERTY ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the LIBERTY11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
85.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 15
OWN 11
0
86.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 15
OWN 11
+3
86.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for 3 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
86.6%
Aidan Alves punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4686% → 86%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
86.2%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-10
86.8%
ROMNEY, Baylor pass complete to KATOA, Lopini for 7 yards to the BYU45, out-of-bounds (AJAYI, S.), PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the BYU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+12
85.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Matt Bushman for 12 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+1
86.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
86.1%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
86.4%
Troy Henderson run for 17 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
86.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 15 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
85.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12FUMBLE
9 plays · 53 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
85.5%
KATOA, Lopini rush for 1 yard to the BYU26 (STEELE, I.), PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the BYU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
85.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 3 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
85.2%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+21
84.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Matt Bushman for 21 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
86.2%
Dax Milne run for 5 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+13
86.3%
Sione Finau run for 13 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
86.5%
Sione Finau run for 7 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+14
86.5%
Sione Finau run for 14 yds to the Liber 22 Sione Finau fumbled, forced by Elijah Benton, recovered by Liber Bejour WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:0415% → 20%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
85.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
84.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+17
85.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 17 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
84.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 9 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+17
83.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 17 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
82.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
82.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+7
83.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 7 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
82.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
82.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
83.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
79.9%
Alex Probert 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4784% → 91%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
84.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Talon Shumway for 10 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
85.6%
Aleva Hifo run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
85.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Matt Bushman for 9 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.9%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
85.7%
Sione Finau run for 4 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+4
85.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Sione Finau for 4 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+41
91.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 41 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:549% → 23%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
90.6%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 24Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+10
90.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 10 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
89.7%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 35Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
89.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 7 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+17
89.4%
Joshua Mack run for 17 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
77.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 41 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
86.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-1
86.3%
Baylor Romney pass intercepted Bejour Wilson return for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
80.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 10 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
80.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
80.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
81.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
82.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:4686% → 96%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
85.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 7 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+6
87.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 6 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
88.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-1
88.3%
Sione Finau run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
50
+8
87.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Talon Shumway for 8 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.4%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Sione FinauSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+18
88.2%
Baylor Romney run for 18 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
88.6%
Baylor Romney run for 7 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+17
95.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 17 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Joshua MackSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for 8 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
91.8%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 28Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
92.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 55 yds, downed at the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:5696% → 97%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
95.5%
Micah Simon run for 2 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
95.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-5
95.6%
ROMNEY, Baylor rush for 1 yard to the BYU27 (Team), PENALTY BYU false start 5 yards to the BYU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-10
95.4%
ROMNEY, Baylor pass complete to SIMON, Micah for 16 yards to the BYU37 (BENTON, E.), PENALTY BYU pass interference 10 yards to the BYU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 16
OWN 11
-2
97.5%
Baylor Romney run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 9 Baylor Romney fumbled, forced by Solomon Ajayi, recovered by BYU Baylor RomneySimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 18
OWN 9
0
97.2%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 37 yds, downed at the BYU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:138% → 21%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
92.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 10 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
92.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 23 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
79.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22DOWNS
15 plays · 41 yds · 5:0089% → 97%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
89.4%
Sione Finau run for 9 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+8
90.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 8 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
90.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-2
90.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Talon Shumway for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+11
93.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Talon Shumway for 11 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
94.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
95.5%
Dayan Ghanwoloku run for 1 yd to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+5
95.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 2
OPP 30
-4
97.1%
Jake Oldroyd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:559% → 7%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
90.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
50
0
88.5%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
50
0
89.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 10
50
-6
89.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 16
OWN 44
-5
92.3%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
93.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Isaiah KaufusiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
98.4%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:35
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q3 2:11
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 41 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 4:11
Baylor Romney pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 41 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com