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ME

Maine 44 at Liberty 59

LIB
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreME score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:39 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +5.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:15: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 28 yds for a TD, (Kenny Doak KICK) — ME win probability +4.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:33: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +4.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:12: Joe Fitzpatrick run for 21 yds for a TD, (Kenny Doak KICK) — ME win probability +6.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:53: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 7 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK) — ME win probability +7.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ME made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:10ME 4th & 6 at LIB 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56ME 4th & 6 at ME 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:52LIB 4th & 11 at ME 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−4.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52LIB 4th & 1 at ME 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−9.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00ME 4th & 12 at ME 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:30ME 4th & 6 at LIB 27, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:29ME 4th & 2 at LIB 29, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:51LIB 4th & 13 at LIB 12, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:04ME 4th & 14 at LIB 32, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:49LIB 4th & 16 at LIB 46, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ME made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:41LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:56LIB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:52LIB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:22LIB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:15ME Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:33LIB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:12ME Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:22LIB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:30LIB Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:08ME Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:53ME Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:53ME Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 11:04LIB Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:46ME Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1973% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
73.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 21 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
73.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds to the Maine 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
73.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 30 yds to the Maine 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
73.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 2FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 6:3127% → 28%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.2%
Earnest Edwards pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 11 yds to the Maine 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
73.1%
Joe Fagnano run for 5 yds to the Maine 41Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
73.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Andre Miller for 4 yds to the Maine 45Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
73.1%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 2 yds to the Maine 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
73.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Devin Young for 20 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
73.0%
MAINE Penalty, false start (Jaquan Blair) to the Liber 38Similar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+5
73.1%
Fitzpatrick, Jo rush over left guard for 5 yards to the LIBERTY33 (TILLMON, B.;LAND, T.), PENALTY LIBERTY offside defense (ELEFANTE, V.) 5 yards to the LIBERTY33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
73.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 16 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
73.0%
Earnest Edwards run for 8 yds to the Liber 9Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+1
73.0%
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the Liber 8Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
73.0%
Joe Fagnano run for 2 yds to the Liber 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
73.0%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for no gain to the Liber 6Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
73.0%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Earnest EdwardsSimilar
Q1 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
73.0%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Shawn Bowman, broken up by Javon ScruggsSimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
72.1%
Kenny Doak 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.2%
Young, Devin rush right for loss of 7 yards to the MAINE18 (AJAYI, S.), PENALTY LIBERTY personal foul (AJAYI, S.) 15 yards to the MAINE40, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
73.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 4 yds to the Maine 44Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
73.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Maine 45Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-1
73.8%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Austin Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 44Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
74.3%
Derek Deoul punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:4775% → 79%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
75.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for 17 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
75.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
50
0
75.7%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
50
+33
75.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 33 yds to the Maine 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
75.7%
Stephen Calvert run for a loss of 5 yards to the Maine 23 Stephen Calvert fumbled, recovered by Liber Thomas SargeantSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+5
75.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 5 yds to the Maine 18Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
75.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
78.6%
Alex Probert 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.7%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 2 yds to the Maine 27Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
77.6%
Joe Fagnano run for 3 yds to the Maine 5 Joe Fagnano fumbled, forced by Tre'Shaun Clark, recovered by Liber Javon Scruggs , return for 29 yds to the Maine 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1480% → 85%
Q1 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Shaquille St-LotSimilar
Q1 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
79.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Maine 1Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.4%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the Maine 1Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.9%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 8INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Andre MillerSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 24Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
85.4%
Joe Fagnano pass intercepted Isaac Steele return for no gain to the Liber 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2687% → 93%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
86.5%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
87.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs, broken up by Joshua HuffmanSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+17
86.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
50
+6
87.7%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Maine 44Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
87.6%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Maine 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
87.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 20 yds to the Maine 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
92.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Troy Henderson for 18 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:077% → 12%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 8 yds to the Maine 33Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
92.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Maine 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Emmanuel ReedSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
93.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
50
-1
92.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 49Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+8
93.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Devin Young for 8 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+15
92.6%
LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Bejour Wilson) to the Liber 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
87.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 28 yds for a TD, (Kenny Doak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:3391% → 96%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
91.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 10 yds to the Maine 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
91.3%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Maine 49Similar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+16
91.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 16 yds to the Maine 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
91.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 15 yds to the Maine 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
91.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 15 yds to the Maine 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
91.0%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 5Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 12TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:123% → 10%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
96.7%
Devin Young run for 10 yds to the Maine 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
96.7%
MAINE Penalty, false start (Chris Mulvey) to the Maine 40Similar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+4
96.9%
Joe Fagnano run for 4 yds to the Maine 44Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+6
96.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 5
50
-10
96.5%
Fagnano, Joe slant pass complete to Blair, Jaquan for 12 yards to the LIBERTY38, PENALTY MAINE holding (Jean-Charles, O) 10 yards to the MAINE40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+39
97.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 39 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
90.5%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 21 yds for a TD, (Kenny Doak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 1:4394% → 98%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Jordan SwannSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
93.7%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
94.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Shedro Louis for 15 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
94.8%
CALVERT, S. deep pass incomplete to SHAA, K. (St-Lot, Shaquil), PENALTY MAINE pass interference (St-Lot, Shaquil) 15 yards to the MAINE40, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
94.9%
Joshua Mack run for 20 yds to the Maine 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for no gain to the Maine 20Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
95.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Shedro Louis, broken up by Myles TaylorSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+13
95.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for 13 yds to the Maine 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
94.8%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Maine 2Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.4%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Devin Young run for no gain to the Maine 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.5%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
97.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 11 yds to the Maine 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
97.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Earnest Edwards for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+4
97.5%
Earnest Edwards run for 4 yds to the Maine 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-4
97.4%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 4 yards to the Maine 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
97.6%
Derek Deoul punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
99.0%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 20Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 14
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+30
99.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.1%
CALVERT, S. slant pass incomplete to FRITH, N. (Otero, Adrian), PENALTY MAINE substitution infraction 5 yards to the MAINE45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+18
99.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 18 yds to the Maine 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
99.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 20 yds to the Maine 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
99.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 44 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Liber 30Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
99.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Devin YoungSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+3
99.3%
Devin Young run for 3 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 6
OPP 27
0
98.9%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Shawn BowmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.5%
Brandon Robinson run for 7 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
99.5%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Liber 38Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.5%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the Liber 39Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+15
99.5%
Landon Brown pass intercepted Richard Carr return for 15 yds to the Liber 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 19TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
99.6%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Jayod Sanders for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for no gain to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+13
99.7%
Devin Young run for 13 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+5
99.5%
Joe Fagnano run for 5 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
99.6%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Kei'Trel Clark for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+29
99.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 29 yds for a TD, (Kenny Doak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 20TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:140% → 2%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 9 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+43
98.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Andre Miller for 43 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-3
98.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 9 yds to the Liber 24 LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Zac Foutz) to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 13
OWN 12
0
98.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
98.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaquan Blair at the Maine 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 22TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:292% → 9%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
98.3%
MAINE Penalty, UR (-15 Yards) to the Maine 30Similar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.3%
Earnest Edwards pass incomplete to Jaquan BlairSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+24
98.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Andre Miller for 24 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
98.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Andre Miller for 28 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
98.0%
Joe Fagnano run for 11 yds to the Liber 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
90.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 7 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:4295% → 99%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
95.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 22 yds to the Maine 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.1%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Maine 32Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
95.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 17 yds to the Maine 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
95.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
95.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
98.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 16 yds to the Maine 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
98.7%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Vincent Elefante and Ralfs Rusins for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 39Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+16
98.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 16 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
98.7%
Fagnano, Joe sideline pass incomplete to Young, Devin, PENALTY MAINE personal foul 15 yards to the MAINE40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 25
OWN 40
+8
98.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 8 yds to the Maine 48Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 17
OWN 48
0
98.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Earnest EdwardsSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 17
OWN 48
+24
98.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Devin Young for 24 yds to the LIBERTY 28 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
98.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Liber 25 MAINE Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Young) to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 17
OPP 35
0
98.6%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Jaquan Blair, broken up by Elijah BentonSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+6
98.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Devin Young for 6 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-3
98.7%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Jayod Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 14
OPP 32
0
98.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Jacob HennieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
99.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 20 yds to the Maine 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Maine 46Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-2
99.2%
Troy Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 48Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-5
99.2%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Max Roberts for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 46 Stephen Calvert fumbled, recovered by Liber Damian Bounds , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 16
OWN 46
+44
99.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaquan Blair at the LIBERTY 10 MAINE Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 26TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 2:551% → 3%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+27
99.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Devin Young for 27 yds to the Maine 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Jaquan BlairSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
99.4%
Fagnano, Joe sideline pass incomplete to Blair, Jaquan, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (ESPINOZA, C.) 10 yards to the MAINE47, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.4%
Joe Fagnano run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 46Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+9
99.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Andre Miller for 9 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
99.4%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 4 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
99.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Devin Young for 21 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
99.3%
Fagnano, Joe slant pass incomplete to Bowman, Shawn, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (ESPINOZA, C.) 10 yards to the LIBERTY10, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Devin YoungSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 3 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 7 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:53
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 7 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 2:12
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 21 yds for a TD, (Kenny Doak KICK)
-6.5
TD · Q2 14:52
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com