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UNM

New Mexico 10 at Liberty 17

LIB
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:52 · Tyson Dyer punt for 58 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 13 yds to the Liber 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior+13.0Home team on offense+2.1Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:23: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +8.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:47: Alex Probert 42 yd FG GOOD — LIB win probability +4.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:00: Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 31 — LIB win probability +4.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:43: Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +13.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:43: N/A on-side kick recovered by LIBERTY at the Liber 48 — LIB win probability +7.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:52LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:01LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:54LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:08UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:20UNM 4th & 13 at LIB 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:52UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:47LIB 4th & 1 at UNM 24, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%−1.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:47UNM 4th & 5 at LIB 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:57LIB 4th & 13 at UNM 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−5.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:32UNM 4th & 8 at LIB 10, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−6.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:36LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:00LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:23LIB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:43UNM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:0872% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
71.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 9 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
71.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 1 yd to the Liber 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
71.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Donte MartinSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+7
71.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 7 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-3
71.3%
Brandon Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
71.0%
Jay Griffin IV run for 2 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
71.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 7 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-5
71.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Teton Saltes) to the Liber 39Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+18
71.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 18 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
71.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+1
71.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the Liber 18Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
71.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted, touchback. Jimmy Faulks return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa, broken up by Donte MartinSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
70.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 10 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
70.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
70.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa, broken up by De'John RogersSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+6
70.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 6 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+2
70.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 45 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 2 yds to the NMex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
70.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
70.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
70.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+1
70.8%
Tyson Dyer punt for 58 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 1 yd to the Liber 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
70.2%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
70.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
70.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
69.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
69.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
69.4%
Bryson Carroll run for 5 yds to the LIBERTY 47 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMex 43Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+3
69.7%
Bryson Carroll run for 3 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+3
69.9%
Daevon Vigilant run for 3 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
70.1%
Tyson Dyer punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 4:1970% → 75%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
69.8%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+3
69.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 3 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-5
69.7%
LIBERTY Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Liber 17Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+7
69.5%
Stephen Calvert run for 7 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
69.9%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+10
70.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 10 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
70.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Shedro Louis for 3 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+51
70.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 51 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
71.2%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8FG
15 plays · 41 yds · 5:4026% → 28%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
73.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 6 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
73.4%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
73.3%
Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Ralfs Rusins and Austin Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
73.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
74.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
72.4%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Teton Saltes) to the Liber 48Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+2
73.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+15
72.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 15 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
71.8%
DAVIS, Ahmari rush left for 8 yards to the LIBERTY23, out-of-bounds (STEELE, I.), PENALTY NM holding (SYLVESTER, Jarr) 10 yards to the LIBERTY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+7
72.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 7 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
72.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 34
0
73.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+52
71.6%
Andrew Shelley 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9FUMBLE
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:0372% → 72%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
72.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 8 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
72.4%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
72.4%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+7
72.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 7 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
72.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 22 yds to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
72.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
72.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie HicksonSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
72.4%
Stephen Calvert run for 4 yds Stephen Calvert fumbled, forced by Erin Austin, recovered by NMex De'John RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
70.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 10 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
70.1%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
70.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Javon Mosley) to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+5
71.0%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 5 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
70.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Daevon Vigilant for no gain to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+13
71.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 58 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 13 yds to the Liber 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 2:1371% → 83%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
71.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 6 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+10
71.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 10 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
71.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 9 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+1
72.9%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+53
72.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 53 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
73.3%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 4Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
74.8%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the NMex 2Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 7 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
79.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
80.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
80.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to E Logan-Greene for 4 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-2
79.4%
Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
80.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
81.4%
Tyson Dyer punt for 54 yds, downed at the Liber 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14FG
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:1882% → 87%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
81.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+15
81.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 15 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
82.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 42 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
83.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
83.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
82.7%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
87.4%
Alex Probert 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Bryson Carroll run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
86.5%
Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 21Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+33
86.9%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 33 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
84.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+2
84.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
84.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
85.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:4489% → 92%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
89.3%
Joshua Mack run for 17 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+38
89.4%
Joshua Mack run for 38 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
90.2%
Joshua Mack run for 8 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+16
90.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 16 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
90.2%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 14Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
90.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
89.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+32
92.0%
Alex Probert 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:1310% → 10%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
89.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+18
91.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 18 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
90.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 14 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
89.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 5 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+38
89.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted Elijah Benton return for 23 yds to the Liber 20 LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Solomon Ajayi) to the Liber 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
94.2%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+16
94.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 16 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
94.5%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+4
94.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 4 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
94.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie Hickson, broken up by Alex HartSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
93.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 77 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
93.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
93.1%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 4 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
93.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 9 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+35
92.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 35 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
91.8%
Daevon Vigilant run for 3 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+10
91.8%
TUIOTI, Tevaka deep pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Marcu, QB hurry by GLAIZE, M., PENALTY LIBERTY holding (SCRUGGS, J.) 10 yards to the LIBERTY12, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
91.8%
Daevon Vigilant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 13Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+3
92.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
92.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus Williams NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+7
93.0%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 7 yds to the Liber 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:0296% → 98%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
96.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+5
96.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+6
96.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
96.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+3
96.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+5
96.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Patrick Peek) to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Jerome JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
96.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
97.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 5 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
97.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 45 yds, fair catch by De'John Rogers at the NMex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 2:122% → 15%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
97.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
97.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+6
97.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 6 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+14
97.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 14 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
97.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 14 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
97.3%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 14 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
96.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
96.8%
Bryson Carroll run for 7 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+11
98.2%
Bryson Carroll run for 11 yds to the Liber 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
84.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:43
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q2 0:23
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
+8.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:43
N/A on-side kick recovered by LIBERTY at the Liber 48
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com