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BUF

Buffalo 17 at Liberty 35

LIB
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:54 · Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +6.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:12: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 33 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +7.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:09: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 36 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +11.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:24: Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +15.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:15: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 55 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +6.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:37BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:12BUF 4th & 6 at LIB 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:12LIB 4th & 20 at LIB 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:12BUF 4th & 2 at LIB 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−1.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:09BUF 4th & 28 at BUF 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−3.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:29BUF 4th & 10 at LIB 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−4.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:55BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:06LIB 4th & 25 at BUF 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:36BUF 4th & 19 at LIB 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:36LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 43, up 18
    Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:49BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 6 at LIB 38, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:19LIB 4th & 4 at BUF 42, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:43LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:12LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:09LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:24LIB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:15LIB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:09BUF Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1741% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
40.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 11 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
40.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chibueze Onwuka) to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
40.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 16 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
40.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 11 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
41.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Michael Bollinger for 19 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2MISSED FG
19 plays · 65 yds · 9:2559% → 52%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
41.5%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+10
41.6%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
41.5%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+3
41.6%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
41.5%
Matt Myers run for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
41.5%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+16
41.5%
Matt Myers run for 16 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
41.4%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 5 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+7
41.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
41.4%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Liber 41Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
41.4%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+8
41.4%
Kevin Marks run for 8 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
41.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+3
45.7%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
45.4%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+6
46.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Kevin Marks for 6 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
47.7%
Alex McNulty 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
48.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 21Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-2
48.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 19Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-9
48.2%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 10Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+6
47.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 36 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 6 yds to the Liber 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:2652% → 57%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
48.2%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
48.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to LeMaro Smith Jr. for 14 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
47.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-5
47.5%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 24Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+9
50.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
49.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Liber 13Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
42.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:3947% → 56%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
46.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
46.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+15
46.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 15 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
47.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 8 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+7
48.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
48.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+33
56.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 33 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 58 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
54.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+33
54.8%
Matt Myers pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 33 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
53.1%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Solomon Ajayi) to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
52.4%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
52.5%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-1
52.3%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
53.3%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Liber 29 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:4556% → 70%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
56.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Shedro Louis for 8 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
57.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+1
56.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
56.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
56.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Khaleb Coleman for 15 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
57.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+10
57.5%
CALVERT, S. sideline pass incomplete to HUNTLEY, J., PENALTY UB holding (PATTERSON, Jame) 10 yards to the UB35, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
58.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+36
69.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 36 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.5%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
67.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.3%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-11
67.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 39 BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Evin Ksiezarczyk) to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 21
OWN 24
-7
68.2%
Matt Myers sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 28
OWN 17
0
68.4%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 14 yds, downed at the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:3572% → 88%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+30
72.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 30 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 2:5516% → 14%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
84.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Dylan McDuffie) to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
84.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 6 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+13
84.0%
Kevin Marks run for 13 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
83.4%
Matt Myers pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+10
82.8%
Kevin Marks run for 10 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
83.1%
Kevin Marks run for 23 yds to the Liber 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.7%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Liber 28Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
82.0%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr.Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
82.9%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Carlton ToddSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
85.6%
Alex McNulty 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
90.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
86.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
86.5%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
86.9%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Jaret PattersonSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
86.9%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 33 yds, downed at the Liber 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 8 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
90.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
90.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 4
50
+5
89.9%
CALVERT, S. deep pass incomplete to GANDY-GOLDEN. A, PENALTY UB offside defense (MACK, Ledarius) 5 yards to the UB45, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
90.2%
HICKSON, F. rush up middle for no gain to the UB45 (RUSSELL, Devon), PENALTY LIBERTY holding (SARGEANT, T.) 10 yards to the LIBERTY45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
90.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+22
89.9%
Joshua Mack run for 22 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
90.2%
CALVERT, S. sideline pass complete to GANDY-GOLDEN. A for 5 yards to the UB28, out-of-bounds (TERRY, Tim), PENALTY LIBERTY illegal block (FOUTZ, Z.) 15 yards to the UB48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 25
OPP 48
0
90.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian King, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 25
OPP 48
+9
90.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 9 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 16
OPP 39
-9
89.7%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 25
OPP 48
0
88.9%
Aidan Alves punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 5:568% → 9%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+12
91.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
91.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 7 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
91.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
91.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
91.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+15
91.1%
MYERS, Matt deep pass incomplete to LEE, Daniel, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (CLARK, K.) 15 yards to the LIBERTY31, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.3%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Liber 31Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
90.5%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dylan McDuffie, broken up by Ceneca Espinoza Jr.Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+12
91.2%
Matt Myers run for 12 yds to the Liber 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
90.2%
MYERS, Matt middle pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Domini, PENALTY UB holding off-setting, PENALTY LIBERTY holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-9
90.2%
Matt Myers sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 19
OPP 28
+2
90.6%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 17
OPP 26
-2
91.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Kevin Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 19
OPP 28
+45
90.7%
Alex McNulty 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
92.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 8 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
92.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 7 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
92.8%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
92.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
92.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.6%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Emanuel DabneySimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
92.6%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dylan McDuffieSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
92.8%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 0:49
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
92.8%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 55 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 0:082% → 2%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
98.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Buff 8Similar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+3
97.9%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+27
98.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 27 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
98.3%
Matt Myers run for 10 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.3%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to LeMaro Smith Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
98.3%
MYERS, Matt middle pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Marlyn, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (WILSON, B.) 10 yards to the LIBERTY42, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
98.2%
Matt Myers sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+4
97.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 4 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+5
98.3%
Matt Myers run for 5 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
98.3%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dylan McDuffie, broken up by Elijah BentonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.3%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
99.3%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+7
99.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Chris Barrett for 7 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Chris Barrett for 3 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
99.3%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
99.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 2:221% → 4%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
99.5%
Kevin Marks run for 11 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.4%
MYERS, Matt middle pass incomplete to TODD, Carlton, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (MEGGINSON, C.) 6 yards to the UB28, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Carlton Todd BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+15
99.5%
Kevin Marks run for 15 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Micah GlaizeSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
99.4%
Matt Myers pass complete to Tito Overton for 16 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
99.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Elijah James) to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
99.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Daniel Lee for 16 yds to the Liber 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Liber 5Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Cole Burniston for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21END OF GAME
14 plays · 65 yds · 3:1598% → 99%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
97.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+20
98.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 20 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
98.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Shedro Louis for 7 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
98.4%
Peytton Pickett run for 6 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
98.4%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
98.8%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
98.8%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+1
98.8%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+9
98.8%
Joshua Mack run for 9 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
98.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:24
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
+15.1
TD · Q2 6:09
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 36 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q2 12:12
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 33 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com