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NMSU

New Mexico State 28 at Liberty 49

LIB
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:58 · Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:37: Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +5.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:05: Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds for a TD LIBERTY Penalty, delay of game (Stephen Calvert) to the NMxSt 8 (Alex Probert PAT MISSED) — LIB win probability +6.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:27: Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 27 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:35: Joshua Mack run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — LIB win probability +7.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:25: Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +6.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:55NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:03LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:18LIB 4th & 6 at NMSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:18NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:17LIB 4th & 6 at NMSU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:08NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:26NMSU 4th & 1 at LIB 1, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:17LIB 4th & 15 at LIB 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00NMSU 4th & 12 at LIB 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:05NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 40, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:06LIB 4th & 2 at NMSU 2, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:44NMSU 4th & 3 at LIB 24, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:46NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:56LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:00NMSU 4th & 3 at LIB 3, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:55LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:44NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:37LIB Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:26NMSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:05LIB Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:27NMSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:35LIB Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:25LIB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:46LIB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:00NMSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
83.6%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
83.6%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-7
83.6%
Josh Adkins run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 30 Josh Adkins fumbled, recovered by Liber Tyren DupreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5783% → 84%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
83.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
83.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
83.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
83.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 5 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
83.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-3
83.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 41 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
83.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 25Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
83.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+5
83.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for 5 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
83.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:5917% → 20%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
83.2%
Jason Huntley run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
83.1%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
83.0%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
83.0%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
83.0%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+15
82.9%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the Liber 49 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Solomon Ajayi) to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
82.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 35 yds to the Liber 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.3%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 3:2081% → 81%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Jason Simmons Jr.Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
81.1%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (Joshua Mack) to the Liber 30Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+22
81.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 22 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
81.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
81.6%
Joshua Mack run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+7
81.6%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
81.8%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
81.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
81.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-5
81.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (Noah Frith) to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
81.0%
Alex Probert 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Jayod SandersSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Andre Bodison for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
81.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Elijah BentonSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
81.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 35 yds , Shedro Louis returns for no gain to the Liber 29 Shedro Louis fumbled, recovered by Liber Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 3:1180% → 82%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
80.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 5 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+22
80.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
81.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
81.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+4
81.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
81.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie HicksonSimilar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
81.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Demario Douglas for 12 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
81.4%
Joshua Mack run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+8
80.9%
Joshua Mack run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 14:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
81.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
82.4%
Alex Probert 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
81.5%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
81.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for no gain to the NMxSt 43 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
81.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Elijah BentonSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
82.4%
Payton Theisler punt for 52 yds, downed at the Liber 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 4:2382% → 89%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
82.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+6
82.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
82.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 31Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+32
82.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 32 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
83.2%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+17
83.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
83.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+3
83.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
83.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 5 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
89.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1113% → 20%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.0%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
86.9%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
86.9%
Josh Adkins run for 21 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
86.3%
Adkins, Josh deep pass incomplete to Nicholson, Tony, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (CLARK, K.) 15 yards to the LIBERTY34, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
85.7%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+25
85.6%
Jason Huntley run for 25 yds to the Liber 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.6%
Tony Nicholson run for no gain to the Liber 1 Tony Nicholson fumbled, forced by Tyren Dupree, recovered by NMxSt Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.6%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.1%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Andre Bodison for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
82.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Demario Douglas for 10 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
83.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (Tristan Schultz) to the Liber 41Similar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
82.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
82.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
81.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+4
80.6%
Aidan Alves punt for 38 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13MISSED FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:1019% → 19%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.2%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
80.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs III, broken up by Emanuel DabneySimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
81.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 7 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
80.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 12 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
79.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
80.0%
Jason Huntley run for 10 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
79.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 23 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
78.0%
Huntley, Jason rush left for loss of 2 yards to the LIBERTY22 (SCRUGGS, J.;ESPINOZA, C.), PENALTY NMSU holding (Clark, OJ) 10 yards to the LIBERTY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 20
OPP 30
0
78.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb Mills, broken up by Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 20
OPP 30
0
79.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 20
OPP 30
+8
80.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 8 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+51
80.9%
Dylan Brown 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Tyren Dupree return for 51 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:4781% → 89%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
81.2%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+11
80.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 11 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+4
81.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
82.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
82.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
82.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+24
82.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 24 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds for a TD LIBERTY Penalty, delay of game (Stephen Calvert) to the NMxSt 8 (Alex Probert PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.7%
Jason Huntley run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
86.2%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
86.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-2
86.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
87.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FG
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:1088% → 91%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+63
88.3%
Joshua Mack run for 63 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
89.2%
Joshua Mack run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
89.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
89.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to N/A for 2 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
89.2%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
88.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Jared PhippsSimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+21
91.4%
Alex Probert 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:3310% → 20%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+33
90.2%
Christian Gibson run for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
88.9%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the Liber 49Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+10
89.3%
Adkins, Josh sideline pass incomplete to Mills, Caleb, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (DABNEY, E.) 10 yards to the LIBERTY39, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
88.9%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+12
89.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 12 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
87.8%
Josh Adkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 27Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+27
80.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 27 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:4486% → 95%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
86.0%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+15
87.2%
CALVERT, S. deep pass incomplete to GANDY-GOLDEN,A., PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Buford Jr, Ray) 15 yards to the NMSU46, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
87.5%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+15
87.3%
CALVERT, S. deep pass incomplete to GANDY-GOLDEN,A., PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Buford Jr, Ray) 15 yards to the NMSU32, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
87.7%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
87.7%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+10
87.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 10 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
87.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to N/A for 8 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+6
87.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
87.7%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.7%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19INT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:278% → 7%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
91.6%
Christian Gibson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-11
91.9%
Huntley, Jason rush pitch right for no gain to the NMSU22 (ESPINOZA, C.;ALEXANDER, B.), PENALTY NMSU personal foul (Mills, Caleb) 11 yards to the NMSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 11
0
92.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb MillsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+3
92.6%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Mason Wolk return for 3 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 34 yds · 4:412% → 1%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Terrell Warner for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
98.4%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
98.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.4%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+16
98.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 16 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
98.4%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+4
98.1%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb Mills, broken up by Elijah BentonSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
98.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Tony Bello) to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+4
98.4%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+8
98.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 3
OPP 24
-17
98.8%
Josh Adkins sacked by Elijah Benton for a loss of 17 yards to the Liber 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:4599% → 100%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 8 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+7
99.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.2%
Stephen Calvert run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
99.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+34
99.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 31 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing passer (Matthew Young) to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.2%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
99.2%
LIBERTY Penalty, delay of game (Stephen Calvert) to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Bejour WilsonSimilar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.9%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-2
99.9%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 37Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Troy Henderson run for 4 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+7
99.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Shamad Lomax blocked by Shamad Lomax Christian Gibson return for 7 yds to the Liber 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:160% → 1%
Q4 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the Liber 4Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 6Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 3 yds to the Liber 3Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
99.7%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-1
99.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:27
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 27 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q3 0:35
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+7
TD · Q3 12:05
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds for a TD LIBERTY Penalty, delay of game (Stephen Calvert) to the NMxSt 8 (Alex Probert PAT MISSED)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com