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UIW

Incarnate Word 28 at New Mexico State 41

NMSU
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUIW aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUIW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:11 · David Balcomb punt for 40 yds , OJ Clark returns for 7 yds to the InWrd 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense+8.1Pregame prior+14.5Score differential+2.6Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:31: Keyondrick Philio run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Mohr KICK) NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — UIW win probability +8.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UIW has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:00: Dylan Brown 30 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:24: Jon Copeland pass complete to Ameer King for 11 yds for a TD (Carson Mohr KICK) — UIW win probability +7.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UIW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:53: Jason Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:41: Dylan Brown kickoff for 65 yds , Ce'Cori Tolds return for 100 yds for a TD (Carson Mohr KICK) — UIW win probability +5.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UIW made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:07UIW 4th & 7 at UIW 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:04NMSU 4th & 1 at UIW 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:56UIW 4th & 7 at UIW 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:05NMSU 4th & 1 at UIW 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:38UIW 4th & 10 at UIW 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:42UIW 4th & 15 at UIW 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:42UIW 4th & 9 at UIW 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:11NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:35NMSU 4th & 1 at UIW 45, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−3.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:11UIW 4th & 8 at UIW 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:21NMSU 4th & 13 at UIW 31, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 4:00NMSU 4th & 5 at UIW 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−4.9
    average punt
  14. Q2 4:00UIW 4th & 10 at UIW 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:34NMSU 4th & 14 at UIW 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−5.7
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:17UIW 4th & 7 at UIW 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 15:00UIW 4th & 7 at UIW 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 13:52NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  19. Q3 4:46NMSU 4th & 3 at UIW 10, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%−0.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−5.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:32NMSU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.7%−2.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:52UIW 4th & 11 at UIW 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UIW made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:38NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:23NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:31UIW Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:24UIW Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:53NMSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:49NMSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:57UIW Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
72.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-2
72.6%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+6
72.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
72.6%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.2%
Jon Copeland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
72.2%
Kevin Brown run for 3 yds to the InWrd 33Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
72.3%
Jon Copeland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+7
72.3%
David Balcomb punt for 47 yds , OJ Clark returns for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal block (13 Yards) to the NMxSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3FUMBLE
11 plays · 86 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
72.1%
Christian Gibson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+20
72.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 20 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
72.3%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-1
72.3%
Josh Adkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+6
72.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 6 yds to the InWrd 49Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+20
72.2%
Christian Gibson run for 5 yds to the InWrd 44 for a 1ST down INCARNATEW Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the InWrd 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
72.5%
Josh Adkins run for 7 yds to the InWrd 22Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
72.5%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+4
72.4%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the InWrd 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
72.5%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the InWrd 15Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+13
72.5%
Jason Huntley run for 13 yds Jason Huntley fumbled, recovered by InWrdSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
71.1%
Kevin Brown run for 3 yds to the InWrd 23Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
71.1%
Jon Copeland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
71.3%
Jon Copeland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+8
71.5%
David Balcomb punt for 43 yds , OJ Clark returns for 8 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:2772% → 75%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
71.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 11 yds to the InWrd 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
71.7%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the InWrd 44Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
71.7%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the InWrd 42Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+4
71.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 4 yds to the InWrd 38Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+4
71.2%
Matt Romero run for 4 yds to the InWrd 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
74.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 34 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.7%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Ameer King for no gain Ameer King fumbled, recovered by InWrd Ameer KingSimilar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.7%
Jon Copeland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
74.0%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Kamden PerrySimilar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
David Balcomb punt for 40 yds , OJ Clark returns for no gain to the NMxSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:0074% → 75%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
74.0%
Jason Huntley run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down INCARNATEW Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the InWrd 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
74.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 13 yds Caleb Mills fumbled, forced by Malick Phillips, recovered by InWrd Dalvin FillmoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 8INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.8%
Jon Copeland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
73.9%
Copeland,Jon pass incomplete to Campbell,Jaelin, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Phipps, Jared) 9 yards to the UIW31, 1ST DOWN UIW, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
73.6%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Brady Rogers for 4 yds to the InWrd 35Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-5
73.4%
INCARNATEW Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the InWrd 30Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+6
73.8%
Jon Copeland pass intercepted Jared Phipps return for 6 yds to the InWrd 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:4375% → 79%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
74.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the InWrd 49Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+7
74.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 7 yds to the InWrd 42Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+42
79.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 42 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 10PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4123% → 15%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.5%
Kevin Brown run for 10 yds to the InWrd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
77.4%
Kevin Brown run for 1 yd to the InWrd 36Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
77.4%
Jon Copeland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-6
77.6%
Jon Copeland sacked by Roy Lopez for a loss of 6 yards to the InWrd 30Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+77
85.3%
David Balcomb punt for 47 yds , OJ Clark returns for 77 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
84.9%
Jon Copeland sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 7 yards to the InWrd 23Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+8
85.2%
Kevin Brown run for 8 yds to the InWrd 31Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
85.2%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Kamden Perry, broken up by Rodney McGraw IISimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 9
OWN 31
-3
85.2%
David Balcomb punt for 44 yds , OJ Clark returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 28 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, IB (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
86.6%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+1
86.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Javahn Fergurson for 1 yd to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 10
OWN 12
-6
86.3%
Adkins, Josh rush for 10 yards to the NMSU22 (Wright,TJ), PENALTY NMSU holding (Doxtater, Sage) 6 yards to the NMSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 16
OWN 6
+2
86.2%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 14
OWN 8
0
85.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 42 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 13TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:1713% → 22%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
50
+35
87.0%
Kevin Yeager pass complete to CJ Hardy for 35 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
86.4%
Keyondrick Philio run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+12
86.4%
Kevin Yeager pass complete to CJ Hardy for 12 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.2%
Keyondrick Philio run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Mohr KICK) NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
81.2%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST down INCARNATEW Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chance Main) to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
82.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete, broken up by Chance MainSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
81.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+9
81.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 9 yds to the InWrd 45Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
81.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
81.0%
Kevin Brown run for 2 yds to the InWrd 10Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
80.7%
Kevin Yeager pass incomplete to CJ HardySimilar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
80.9%
Kevin Yeager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 8
OWN 10
+7
81.1%
David Balcomb punt for 40 yds , OJ Clark returns for 7 yds to the InWrd 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:2182% → 87%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
82.2%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the InWrd 42Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+14
82.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 14 yds to the InWrd 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
82.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-1
82.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the InWrd 29Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-2
81.8%
Adkins, Josh pass incomplete to Fergurson, J. (Thomas,Chris), PENALTY NMSU illegal forward pass (Adkins, Josh) 2 yards to the UIW31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+14
80.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 14 yds to the InWrd 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
82.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
82.2%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the InWrd 12Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
81.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for no gain to the InWrd 12Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
86.8%
Dylan Brown 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.5%
Kevin Yeager pass complete to Kaleb Ducros for 6 yds to the InWrd 31Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
84.9%
Kevin Yeager pass complete to Jaelin Campbell for 9 yds to the InWrd 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
84.8%
Kevin Yeager pass incomplete to Kamden Perry, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
85.1%
Kevin Yeager pass incomplete to Kamden PerrySimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
85.3%
Kevin Yeager pass incomplete to Kamden Perry, broken up by Rodney McGraw IISimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
-2
85.8%
David Balcomb punt for 48 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 2:0888% → 89%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
87.5%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 16 Jason Huntley fumbled, forced by Kelechi Anyalebechi,Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+8
87.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+32
87.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 32 yds to the InWrd 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
88.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Javahn Fergurson for 3 yds to the InWrd 41Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+8
88.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 8 yds to the InWrd 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
88.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 19 yds to the InWrd 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
88.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
88.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Ian PetersonSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-4
87.8%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 4 yards to the InWrd 18Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+36
89.1%
Dylan Brown 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1714% → 13%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.2%
Ameer King run for 2 yds to the InWrd 22Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
86.6%
Kevin Yeager pass incomplete to Jaelin CampbellSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+1
86.7%
Ameer King run for 1 yd to the InWrd 23Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+6
87.3%
David Balcomb punt for 43 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 6 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20END OF HALF
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
89.3%
Christian Gibson run for 17 yds to the InWrd 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.1%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Colby Anthony for 3 yds to the InWrd 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
86.8%
Kevin Brown run for no gain to the InWrd 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
87.3%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Jaelin Campbell, broken up by Jared PhippsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.5%
David Balcomb punt for 49 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0088% → 86%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
87.5%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 1
OWN 32
-1
87.7%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+6
87.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 6 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
87.6%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
87.8%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-6
87.5%
Josh Adkins sacked by Kelechi Anyalebechi for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
86.4%
Payton Theisler punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+32
89.5%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Mark Sullivan for 32 yds to the InWrd 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
88.6%
Jon Copeland sacked by Javahn Fergurson and Matthew Young for a loss of 8 yards to the InWrd 35Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 18
OWN 35
-1
89.6%
Jon Copeland sacked by Matthew Young for a loss of 1 yard to the InWrd 34Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 19
OPP 0
-9
88.8%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Kamden Perry INCARNATEW Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-9 Yards) to the InWrd 10Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 43
OWN 10
+44
89.8%
David Balcomb punt for 44 yds, downed at the NEWMEXST 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:4493% → 96%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
92.8%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+13
92.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Andre Bodison for 13 yds to the InWrd 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
92.8%
Christian Gibson run for 12 yds to the InWrd 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
92.8%
Christian Gibson run for 9 yds to the InWrd 19Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
92.8%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the InWrd 19Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
92.7%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the InWrd 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
92.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the InWrd 14Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
92.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+4
92.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 4 yds to the InWrd 10Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
96.4%
Dylan Brown 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:224% → 12%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.3%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Brady Rogers for 8 yds to the InWrd 33Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
96.1%
Kevin Brown run for 2 yds to the InWrd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
96.1%
Jon Copeland sacked by Xander Yarberough for a loss of 8 yards to the InWrd 27Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+5
96.4%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Kevin Brown for 5 yds to the InWrd 32Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+19
96.4%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Colby Anthony for 19 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
96.1%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Jaelin Campbell for 13 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
96.1%
Ameer King run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+5
95.5%
Ameer King run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
95.5%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Mark Sullivan, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
95.7%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 13 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
95.5%
Jon Copeland pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
95.5%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Jaelin CampbellSimilar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
88.1%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Ameer King for 11 yds for a TD (Carson Mohr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:2393% → 99%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
93.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 3 yds to the InWrd 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+25
93.3%
Jason Huntley run for 25 yds to the InWrd 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
93.4%
Jason Huntley run for 18 yds to the InWrd 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
93.8%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
93.8%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
93.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 1
50
+49
93.0%
Christian Gibson run for 49 yds Christian Gibson fumbled, forced by Ian Peterson, recovered by InWrdSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
91.5%
Kevin Brown run for 2 yds to the InWrd 22Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
91.5%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Mark Sullivan for 7 yds to the InWrd 29Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+10
90.5%
Keyondrick Philio run for 10 yds to the InWrd 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
90.3%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Kamden Perry for a loss of 1 yard to the InWrd 38Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
90.8%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Kamden PerrySimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
91.4%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Mark SullivanSimilar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
91.7%
David Balcomb punt for 45 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:2994% → 99%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
94.4%
Jason Huntley run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.6%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
94.8%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+13
94.8%
Jason Huntley run for 13 yds to the InWrd 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
94.9%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the InWrd 36Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+13
94.8%
Jason Huntley run for 13 yds to the InWrd 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
94.9%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the InWrd 25Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+9
97.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Andre Bodison for 24 yds to the InWrd 1 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, IB (-15 Yards) to the InWrd 16Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+14
97.3%
Jason Huntley run for 14 yds to the InWrd 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 31TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:521% → 3%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Mark Sullivan for 9 yds to the InWrd 34Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-6
99.4%
Jon Copeland sacked by Donovan King and John Graves III for a loss of 6 yards to the InWrd 28Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Kamden PerrySimilar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
99.4%
INCARNATEW Penalty, false start (Brandon Floores) to the InWrd 23Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+15
99.5%
Copeland,Jon pass incomplete to Rogers,Brady (Perkins, Austin), PENALTY NMSU targeting (Perkins, Austin) 15 yards to the UIW38, 1ST DOWN UIW, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.5%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Ameer King for 3 yds to the InWrd 41Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+20
99.5%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Kamden Perry for 20 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Mark SullivanSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.4%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Brady Rogers for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+7
99.4%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Marquez Perez for 7 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
99.3%
Jon Copeland pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 21 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.3%
Keyondrick Philio run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Matthew Young) to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.3%
Jon Copeland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
Jon Copeland run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Mohr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 32INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
97.4%
Copeland,Jon pass incomplete to Perry,Kamden, QB hurry by Vigne, Myles, PENALTY NMSU holding (Phipps, Jared) 15 yards to the NMSU38, 1ST DOWN UIW, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.1%
Jon Copeland pass incomplete to Colby AnthonySimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
97.1%
Ameer King run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.6%
Jon Copeland pass intercepted, touchback. Jared Phipps return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
98.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:31
Keyondrick Philio run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Mohr KICK) NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
-8.2
TD · Q3 0:24
Jon Copeland pass complete to Ameer King for 11 yds for a TD (Carson Mohr KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q4 13:53
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com