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NMSU

New Mexico State 7 at Georgia Southern 41

GASO
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:54 · Payton Theisler run for a loss of 13 yards to the NMxSt 47 Payton Theisler fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Devin Richardson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Home team on offense+2.6Pregame prior+22.6Score differential+0.5Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:48: Jason Huntley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:54: J.D. King run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +3.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:56: Wesley Kennedy III run for 47 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +6.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:19: J.D. King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +7.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:47: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 45 — GASO win probability +2.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:45NMSU 4th & 1 at GASO 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:49NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:59GASO 4th & 3 at NMSU 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:59NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:54NMSU 4th & 13 at GASO 42, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    19.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:56NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:23GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:51NMSU 4th & 3 at GASO 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:34NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:34NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 32, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:48GASO 4th & 2 at NMSU 3, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:42NMSU 4th & 1 at GASO 33, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00GASO 4th & 14 at NMSU 43, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:11NMSU 4th & 11 at GASO 18, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:15GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 29, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:25NMSU 4th & 2 at GASO 36, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:38NMSU 4th & 6 at GASO 17, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:48NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:49GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:54GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:56GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:19GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:42GASO Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.0%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
80.0%
J.D. King run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
80.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 36 Wesley Kennedy III fumbled, forced by Rashie Hodge Jr., recovered by NMxSt Rashie Hodge Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:5720% → 24%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
79.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 6 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
79.5%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+3
79.6%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
79.5%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
79.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 5 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+3
79.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 3 yds to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
79.6%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
79.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 3 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
79.5%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+7
79.6%
Christian Gibson run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
79.5%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 3Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.0%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5977% → 78%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-1
76.8%
J.D. King run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
78.1%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 71 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
77.9%
Josh Adkins sacked by Traver Vliem for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+2
78.2%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
78.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:5978% → 77%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
77.7%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+11
77.4%
Shai Werts run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+31
77.8%
J.D. King run for 31 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
78.3%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+2
78.0%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+9
77.9%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 9 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
76.7%
Tyler Bass 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 1:59
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+3
76.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 40 yds , Wesley Kennedy III returns for 3 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
75.7%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
75.8%
Josh Adkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
76.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:5977% → 81%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
76.9%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-3
76.6%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+46
75.8%
Shai Werts run for 46 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
77.2%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+4
77.2%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.5%
J.D. King run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+25
79.3%
Christian Gibson run for 25 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
79.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+9
78.8%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
78.6%
Christian Gibson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+16
78.2%
Jason Huntley run for 16 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
78.0%
Josh Adkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-4
78.1%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+2
79.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 13:54
4TH & 13
OPP 42
-13
79.6%
Payton Theisler run for a loss of 13 yards to the NMxSt 47 Payton Theisler fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Devin RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
85.6%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 47 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
83.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
84.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
84.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
84.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
85.2%
J.D. King run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
85.6%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.8%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Matt LaRocheSimilar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
85.6%
J.D. King run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+6
84.9%
Shai Werts run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
84.8%
Anthony Beck II punt for 42 yds , OJ Clark returns for no gain to the NMxSt 16 OJ Clark fumbled, recovered by GeoSo NaJee ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3586% → 94%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
86.0%
J.D. King run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
J.D. King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.9%
Christian Gibson run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
91.4%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.6%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
91.7%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
91.8%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Kindle Vildor return for no gain to the GeoSo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:1594% → 95%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
94.3%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
94.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
94.4%
J.D. King run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+10
94.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.4%
J.D. King run for no gain to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-7
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Matthew YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:157% → 7%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
92.6%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
93.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson, broken up by Randy Wade Jr.Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+6
93.4%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
93.3%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-1
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:266% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.0%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
94.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+67
96.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 43 yds , Wesley Kennedy III returns for 67 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.8%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
96.2%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
96.2%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
96.2%
Ethan Albertson punt for 55 yds, downed at the GeoSo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 85 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
99.1%
Shai Werts run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+11
99.0%
J.D. King run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
99.1%
Matt LaRoche run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+15
99.0%
J.D. King run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.1%
J.D. King run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+8
99.0%
Matt LaRoche run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
99.1%
J.D. King run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
99.1%
Matt LaRoche run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-1
99.1%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+4
99.1%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+1
98.9%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20INT TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
99.6%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+7
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted for a TD Rashad Byrd return for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:000% → 1%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Javahn Fergurson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
99.6%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.6%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.6%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+6
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 6 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
99.6%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-1
99.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
99.7%
J.D. King run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+7
99.7%
J.D. King run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
99.8%
Shai Werts run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
99.8%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Matt LaRoche run for no gain to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-6
99.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Matt LaRoche for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Anthony Beck II punt for 42 yds, downed at the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+13
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+4
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+56
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 56 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.8%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-3
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 11
OPP 18
-6
99.8%
Josh Adkins sacked by Dillon Springer for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Anthony Beck II punt for 26 yds, downed at the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Ethan Albertson punt for 26 yds, downed at the GeoSo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 9 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Matt LaRocheSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+10
100.0%
Gerald Green run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+6
100.0%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Gerald Green run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 36 Gerald Green fumbled, forced by Brennon Davis, recovered by NMxSt Rashie Hodge Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Chance CookSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+13
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 6
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:19
J.D. King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q2 9:56
Wesley Kennedy III run for 47 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
+6
TD · Q1 8:48
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com