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NMSU

New Mexico State 28 at Central Michigan 42

CMU
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:23 · Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior+16.0Home team on offense+4.9Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:17: Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:57: Jonathan Ward run for 75 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +7.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:50: Jason Huntley run for 37 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:00: Ryan Tice 43 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +7.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:21: Josh Adkins pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 34 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:47CMU 4th & 1 at NMSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:47NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:27CMU 4th & 3 at NMSU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:32CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:58NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:17NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:23CMU 4th & 1 at NMSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−1.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:18NMSU 4th & 9 at CMU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:50NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:27CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:54CMU 4th & 15 at NMSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−6.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:54NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:32CMU 4th & 13 at NMSU 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00CMU 4th & 8 at NMSU 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−4.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at CMU 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−2.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:21CMU 4th & 19 at CMU 44, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−2.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:12NMSU 4th & 19 at NMSU 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:51CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:09CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:37NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:23CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:17NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:57CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:50NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:48CMU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:21NMSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.9%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
72.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
72.9%
Josh Adkins run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for no gain to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
72.9%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+6
72.9%
Josh Adkins run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
72.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 27 yds , Alonzo McCoy returns for no gain to the CMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:5672% → 74%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
72.4%
Quinten Dormady run for 3 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+13
72.4%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 13 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
72.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
72.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+9
72.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+1
72.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
72.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+44
74.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 44 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
73.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 5 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
73.3%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+1
73.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 1 yd to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+8
73.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 32 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 8 yds to the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:1574% → 77%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
74.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+57
77.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 57 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.1%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
76.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 27 yds Naveon Mitchell fumbled, forced by Kyron McKinnie-Harper, recovered by CMich Michael Oliver NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
77.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
77.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
77.3%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+2
77.0%
Quinten Dormady run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:1924% → 27%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
76.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 17 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
76.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 8 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
75.8%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
75.8%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
76.0%
Jason Huntley run for 10 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
75.8%
Christian Gibson run for 10 yds to the CMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
75.8%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
75.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 1 yd to the CMich 4Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-4
74.2%
Quinten Dormady run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 35 Quinten Dormady fumbled, recovered by CMich Quinten DormadySimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
73.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kobe LewisSimilar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+25
73.4%
Brady Buell punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 7 , OJ Clark returns for 25 yds to the CENTMICH 40 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (32 Yards) to the NMxSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 3:2826% → 24%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
74.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tevis Abraham for 5 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 5
OWN 12
-3
74.0%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+11
74.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 11 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
74.0%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-7
74.0%
Huntley, Jason rush for 16 yards to the NMSU37 (WARD, Jonathan;JAMISON, D.), PENALTY NMSU illegal block (Gibson, C.) 7 yards to the NMSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 14
-5
74.2%
Josh Adkins sacked by Tico Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 9
+9
74.7%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
75.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
76.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Keonta Nixon for 12 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
76.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 25 yds Jonathan Ward fumbled, forced by Jason Simmons Jr., recovered by NMxSt Jared PhippsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.0%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
75.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+40
75.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 40 , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 40 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 4:0077% → 83%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
76.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+2
76.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
76.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+4
75.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
76.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
76.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
83.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 20 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 3:0118% → 27%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
82.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+12
82.2%
Christian Gibson run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+36
82.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 36 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
81.0%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
81.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
81.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb Mills, broken up by Montrae BraswellSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+16
82.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 16 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
80.2%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
80.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
80.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 5 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
80.2%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
73.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
83.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 75 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
82.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
82.8%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-2
82.6%
Josh Adkins sacked by Robi Stuart for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
83.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3985% → 85%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
85.4%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
85.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
84.6%
Brady Buell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:3215% → 26%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
85.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 17 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
83.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+37
74.3%
Jason Huntley run for 37 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18END OF HALF
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:1978% → 78%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
77.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 11 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
78.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 11 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
79.3%
Quinten Dormady run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-6
79.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 14
50
0
77.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 6:0677% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
76.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
77.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
77.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
78.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+9
78.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
78.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
78.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+13
77.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
78.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-2
78.6%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-7
77.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+35
80.7%
Ryan Tice 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs III, broken up by Kyron McKinnie-HarperSimilar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 33 yds, downed at the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
83.0%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 6 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
83.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+8
82.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
83.4%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
82.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 13
OPP 44
0
82.0%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
80.6%
Brady Buell punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
82.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 12 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
81.9%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
81.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+8
81.1%
Josh Adkins run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
80.8%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Troy Brown return for no gain to the CMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:1485% → 93%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.4%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
85.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-5
84.5%
LEWIS, Kobe rush for 5 yards to the NMSU47 (Hodge Jr, R.;Wilcots II, C.), PENALTY CMU IS 5 yards to the CMU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+18
83.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 18 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
85.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
85.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
85.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+1
84.9%
Quinten Dormady run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
92.7%
Ryan Tice 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
92.7%
TICE, Ryan kickoff 49 yards to the NMSU16, Wilcots II, C. return to the NMSU25 (DOUGLAS, George), PENALTY CMU offside 5 yards to the CMU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
86.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
85.3%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
86.2%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
86.9%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the CMich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
94.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+12
94.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.6%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-11
94.5%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 11 yards to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 21
OWN 42
+2
93.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 2 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
93.2%
Brady Buell punt for 45 yds, downed at the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
92.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Cedric Wilcots IISimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
92.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 11
-9
92.3%
Josh Adkins sacked by Sean Adesanya for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 19
OWN 2
+20
92.4%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 20 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:1496% → 99%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
95.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
95.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 7 yds for a TD, (Quinten Dormady pass to Kalil Pimpleton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:271% → 8%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
98.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
98.8%
Josh Adkins run for 7 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-5
98.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Naveon Mitchell) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 8
50
+16
98.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 16 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
92.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 34 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29END OF GAME
17 plays · 47 yds · 3:1896% → 99%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
96.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
96.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
96.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
96.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
97.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+4
97.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
98.0%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+2
97.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+9
98.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
98.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+5
98.5%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
98.5%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:50
Jason Huntley run for 37 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 3:57
Jonathan Ward run for 75 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+7.6
FG · Q3 0:00
Ryan Tice 43 yd FG GOOD
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com