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LIB

Liberty 20 at New Mexico State 13

NMSU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:13 · Payton Theisler punt for 42 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense−1.4Pregame prior−7.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:22: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +9.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 12:15: Dylan Brown 33 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:46: Jason Huntley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +35.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:19: Joshua Mack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +32.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:15: Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Liber 11 — LIB win probability +17.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:28LIB 4th & 30 at NMSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:59LIB 4th & 3 at NMSU 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:03LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:25NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:01LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:14NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:47LIB 4th & 12 at LIB 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:13NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:15NMSU 4th & 8 at LIB 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:08LIB 4th & 8 at NMSU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:45NMSU 4th & 16 at LIB 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:20LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 16 at LIB 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:09LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−2.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:57LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−3.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 0:22LIB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:46NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:19LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1MISSED FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 5:3262% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
38.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 17 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
38.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
38.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
38.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
38.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+13
38.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 13 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
38.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+14
38.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 14 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-7
38.0%
HICKSON, F. rush for 7 yards to the NMSU5 (Hodge Jr, R.;Perkins, Austin), PENALTY LIBERTY holding 7 yards to the NMSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 17
OPP 19
0
38.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 19
-5
38.0%
CALVERT, S. pass complete to STUBBS, DJ for no gain to the NMSU19 (Hodge Jr, R.;Phipps, Jared), PENALTY LIBERTY delay of game 5 yards to the NMSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OPP 24
0
38.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie HicksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 22
OPP 24
-8
38.0%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Xander Yarberough for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 30
OPP 32
+50
40.1%
Alex Probert 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2INT
8 plays · 64 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
40.1%
Josh Adkins run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
40.5%
Jason Huntley run for 19 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
40.7%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+8
40.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 8 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
40.9%
Christian Gibson run for 17 yds to the Liber 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
40.9%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+8
40.8%
Christian Gibson run for 8 yds to the Liber 4Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+72
40.6%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Javon Scruggs return for 72 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:5460% → 60%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
39.7%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
39.8%
Joshua Mack run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
39.7%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-6
39.7%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+10
40.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for 10 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
40.4%
Alex Probert 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4INT
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:5441% → 43%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
40.5%
Huntley, Jason rush for 10 yards to the NMSU30 (TILLMON, B.), PENALTY NMSU holding (Mitchell, N.) 0 yards to the NMSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
40.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+37
40.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 37 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
42.1%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+3
42.5%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
41.9%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
43.4%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the Liber 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-5
43.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+5
42.5%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Brandon Tillmon return for 5 yds to the Liber 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
40.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
40.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Zac FoutzSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
41.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
41.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 69 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
41.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
41.2%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
41.1%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-4
40.4%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+1
40.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 58 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 1 yd to the Liber 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
40.8%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Devin Richardson for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 22 Stephen Calvert fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 17
OWN 22
0
41.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+6
41.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 6 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+72
42.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 53 yds , OJ Clark returns for 72 yds to the NEWMEXST 0 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal block (69 Yards) to the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
41.8%
Josh Adkins sacked by Tyren Dupree for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+4
41.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
40.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson, broken up by Chris MegginsonSimilar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
40.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds, downed at the Liber 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:1360% → 57%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
39.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-10
40.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive holding (Dontae Duff) to the Liber 36Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+4
41.9%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+4
41.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 4 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
42.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
42.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, illegal use of hands (Jessie Lemonier) to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
43.0%
Josh Adkins sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+18
41.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
50
-1
44.5%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-5
43.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+1
42.3%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
41.5%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
41.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 42 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD
16 plays · 87 yds · 4:0358% → 73%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
41.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 3
OWN 20
0
41.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+4
42.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
41.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
41.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+5
41.4%
CALVERT, S. pass incomplete to KING, Dam., PENALTY NMSU offside (Williams, J.) 5 yards to the LIBERTY36, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
40.7%
Joshua Mack run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
39.3%
Joshua Mack run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
38.6%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+11
38.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 11 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
38.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Myles Vigne) to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 5
OPP 17
+4
38.5%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+8
38.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 8 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
38.5%
Stephen Calvert run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:2230% → 31%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.7%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-7
30.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (OJ Clark) to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
29.6%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+50
28.5%
LIBERTY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Solomon Ajayi) to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
32.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Liber 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 0
-5
28.5%
Start of 3rd quarter, clock 15:00, LIBERTY ball on LIBERTY35, PENALTY LIBERTY US (AJAYI, S.) 0 yards to the LIBERTY20, NO PLAY, PENALTY LIBERTY offside (AJAYI, S.) 5 yards to the LIBERTY15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 20
-5
30.6%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the Liber 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:4530% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+46
29.9%
Start of 3rd quarter, clock 15:00, LIBERTY ball on LIBERTY20, PENALTY LIBERTY offside 46 yards to the LIBERTY15, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
31.2%
Gibson, C. rush for no gain to the NMSU39 (LEMONIER, J.;AJAYI, S.), PENALTY LIBERTY face mask (LEMONIER, J.) 15 yards to the LIBERTY46, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
31.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 6 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
32.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 18 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
32.3%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the Liber 13Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
32.3%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 4
OPP 11
-4
31.0%
Josh Adkins sacked by Solomon Ajayi and Jayod Sanders for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 15 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
34.4%
Dylan Brown 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:4068% → 73%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
31.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
31.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+9
32.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 9 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
31.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 5 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
30.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
31.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 6 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
29.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 1
50
+15
28.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for no gain to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Xander Yarberough) to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
28.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
28.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
29.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
27.3%
Alex Probert 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 5:2326% → 30%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 15 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
27.5%
Josh Adkins run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-2
28.1%
Huntley, Jason rush for 3 yards to the NMSU49 (AJAYI, S.;BENTON, E.), PENALTY NMSU false start 2 yards to the NMSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
28.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+16
27.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 16 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
28.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
30.3%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
30.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
30.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+5
28.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
30.3%
Tony Nicholson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
30.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
28.8%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the Liber 6Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 1
OPP 6
-15
27.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Christian Gibson) to the Liber 21Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 16
OPP 21
+39
30.0%
Dylan Brown 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
27.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Troy Henderson for 10 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
26.5%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 36Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
26.2%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
25.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+7
26.9%
Aidan Alves punt for 46 yds , OJ Clark returns for 7 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:2228% → 27%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
28.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 21 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
30.8%
Huntley, Jason rush for no gain to the NMSU40, PENALTY NMSU illegal block (Warner, Terrell) 10 yards to the NMSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+7
28.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+15
28.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ Clark for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Elijah Benton) to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
32.8%
Josh Adkins run for 8 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+3
33.0%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
32.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
32.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-6
31.4%
Josh Adkins sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
26.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 37 yds, downed at the Liber 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT
13 plays · 10 yds · 1:1276% → 74%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
24.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+7
24.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the Liber 15Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+2
24.8%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
23.8%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Devin Richardson for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+4
24.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 4 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
25.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
26.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+2
24.8%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
24.1%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Devin Richardson for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+4
24.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 4 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
25.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
26.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:5529% → 65%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
28.8%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+41
29.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Cedric Wilcots II for 41 yds to the Liber 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
64.5%
Jason Huntley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2749% → 85%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.0%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
48.1%
Joshua Mack run for 10 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+54
47.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for 54 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
15.0%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21FUMBLE
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:0022% → 31%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
22.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 19 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
23.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+22
26.2%
Jason Huntley run for 22 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
30.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Naveon MitchellSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
29.7%
Adkins, Josh pass incomplete to Huntley, Jason, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (BENTON, E.) 15 yards to the LIBERTY17, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
30.5%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 18Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+13
29.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 13 yds to the Liber 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
30.5%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 8Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
30.5%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the Liber 6 Josh Adkins fumbled, forced by Jessie Lemonier, recovered by Liber Solomon AjayiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:0787% → 96%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
13.2%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+16
12.8%
Joshua Mack run for 16 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
12.3%
Joshua Mack run for 8 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+13
5.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 13 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
4.9%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+5
5.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Cedric Wilcots II) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 8
50
+4
4.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-3
4.2%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:46
Jason Huntley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
+35.1
TD · Q4 6:19
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
-32.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:15
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Liber 11
-17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com