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FRES

Fresno State 30 at New Mexico State 17

NMSU
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.6NMSU 8.9%Cesar Silva 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 0 · Q2 2:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:56 · Cesar Silva 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior−28.1Home team on offense−18.9Score differential−8.1Garbage-time factor−4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:28: Jalen Cropper run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +2.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:56: Cesar Silva 28 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +1.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:00: Josh Adkins pass intercepted for a TD Wylan Free return for 91 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +4.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:22: Cesar Silva 24 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:25: Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 16 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:08NMSU 4th & 4 at FRES 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20FRES 4th & 13 at FRES 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:33NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:03FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17NMSU 4th & 7 at FRES 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:17FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:24NMSU 4th & 18 at NMSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:20NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 20, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:56FRES 4th & 3 at NMSU 10, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00NMSU 4th & 5 at FRES 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:58FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:32NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:58FRES 4th & 5 at NMSU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−4.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:22FRES 4th & 3 at NMSU 7, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−5.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:22NMSU 4th & 1 at FRES 28, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−1.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    -1.2%−5.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 6 at FRES 7, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -1.3%−4.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:46FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 10, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:59NMSU 4th & 1 at FRES 22, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−3.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:29FRES 4th & 3 at NMSU 38, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−1.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:08FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:28FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:00FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:25NMSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
10.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
10.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
10.2%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
10.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 51 yds, downed at the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:3689% → 89%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
10.7%
Derrion Grim run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+7
10.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jamal Glaspie for 7 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
10.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 7 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+8
10.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 8 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
10.6%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
10.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+10
10.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 10 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
10.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
10.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
10.6%
Jalen Cropper run for 25 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
10.6%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Keric Wheatfall, broken up by Jared PhippsSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
11.5%
Josh Hokit run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
11.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 21 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
12.0%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
11.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 6
50
+2
12.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
11.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
11.8%
REYNA, Jorge pass incomplete to WHEATFALL, K., PENALTY NMSU holding off-setting, PENALTY FS pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
12.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 14 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
12.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-1
12.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-7
12.1%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
12.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 50 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Naveon MitchellSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
13.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson, broken up by Kevin AtkinsSimilar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
12.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Arron MosbySimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+14
12.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 54 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 14 yds to the FrsSt 39 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (Saevion Johnson) to the FrsSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
13.1%
Josh Hokit run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+3
13.1%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
13.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for no gain to the FrsSt 13 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
13.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 yds , OJ Clark returns for no gain to the NMxSt 13 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:4214% → 14%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
13.7%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
14.1%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
14.1%
Jason Huntley run for 23 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
15.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-1
15.0%
Tony Nicholson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+3
14.6%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
14.4%
Dylan Brown 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
13.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
14.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
14.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
14.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 32 yds, downed at the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
14.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+3
14.3%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-7
14.1%
Josh Adkins sacked by Mykal Walker and Leevel Tatum III for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
13.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
11.1%
Jalen Cropper run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
11.1%
Gibson, C. rush for 3 yards to the NMSU16 (BRYANT, Jaron;HUGHES, Juju), PENALTY NMSU holding (Wilhite, Max) 7 yards to the NMSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 17
OWN 6
-1
11.0%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 18
OWN 5
+5
11.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+10
11.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
11.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 6:0989% → 91%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
10.9%
Reggie Strong run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
10.6%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Emoryie EdwardsSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+8
10.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 8 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
10.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+8
10.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 8 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
10.5%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+11
10.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 11 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
10.4%
Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+4
10.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
10.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
10.4%
Jalen Cropper run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
10.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Ronnie Rivers, broken up by Javahn FergursonSimilar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
8.9%
Cesar Silva 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13INT TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:5610% → 7%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
10.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 20 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
11.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
11.3%
Jason Huntley run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
11.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 20 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
11.8%
Josh Adkins sacked by Alex Dumais for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+91
7.4%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted for a TD Wylan Free return for 91 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:537% → 8%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
7.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian Gibson, broken up by Keiti IakopoSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
7.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+16
6.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 16 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
7.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian GibsonSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
7.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+5
7.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
7.8%
Dylan Brown 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3094% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
5.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for no gain Zane Pope fumbled, forced by Devin Richardson, recovered by NMxSt Matthew YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:328% → 8%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
8.2%
Jason Huntley run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
8.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+8
8.3%
Christian Gibson run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.3%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
11.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 8 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
10.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
10.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Reggie StrongSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
10.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
10.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
11.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Chris ColemanSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-2
11.1%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
10.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
10.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:4691% → 92%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
9.0%
Jorge Reyna run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+14
9.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 14 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
8.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 17 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
8.7%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+2
8.7%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
7.8%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
8.0%
Cesar Silva 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jonathan Hood, broken up by Justin RiceSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
8.8%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
9.0%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Justin Rice return for no gain to the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21FG
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:5993% → 98%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
6.7%
Derrion Grim run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
6.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+4
6.6%
Jalen Cropper run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
6.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Mykal WalkerSimilar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
2.5%
Cesar Silva 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22DOWNS
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:223% → 3%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
3.4%
Josh Adkins run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
3.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 7 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
3.7%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
3.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 8 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+9
3.9%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
3.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Naveon MitchellSimilar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
3.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+10
3.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+1
4.0%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
4.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 16 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
4.3%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
3.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Cedric Wilcots IISimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
3.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Matthew Young, broken up by Justin RiceSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 7
0
3.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
2.5%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 5
OWN 12
-5
2.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+2
2.5%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+1
2.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 1 yd to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
2.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the FrsSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:342% → 11%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
2.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason Huntley, broken up by Levelle BaileySimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+17
2.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 17 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
2.3%
Tony Nicholson pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
2.3%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+6
2.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+7
2.2%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
2.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 4 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
2.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 6
OPP 11
-5
2.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+16
10.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 16 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:5694% → 96%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
5.9%
Josh Hokit run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+17
6.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 17 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
5.2%
Jalen Cropper run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
5.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jamal Glaspie for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
5.1%
Jorge Reyna run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
5.1%
Jorge Reyna run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
3.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
4.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
5.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+13
5.6%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Wylan Free return for 13 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
3.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+7
3.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+7
3.6%
Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
3.6%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
3.6%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:25
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 16 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q2 1:00
Josh Adkins pass intercepted for a TD Wylan Free return for 91 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
-4.4
FG · Q3 4:22
Cesar Silva 24 yd FG GOOD
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com