Try the model
NMSU

New Mexico State 52 at New Mexico 55

UNM
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:52 · Payton Theisler punt for 49 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 5 yds to the NMex 16 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal block (Tony Collier) to the NMex 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense−1.5Pregame prior+5.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:02: Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:15: Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +13.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:45: Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +14.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:02: Cedric Patterson III 62 Yd pass from Tevaka Tuioti (Andrew Shelley Kick) — UNM win probability +18.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:22: Josh Adkins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +26.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:08UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:35NMSU 4th & 7 at UNM 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:31UNM 4th & 5 at NMSU 31, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:31NMSU 4th & 1 at UNM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:52NMSU 4th & 22 at NMSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:45UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:52NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:25UNM 4th & 5 at NMSU 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:49NMSU 4th & 10 at UNM 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−8.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 27 at NMSU 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−3.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:43UNM 4th & 1 at NMSU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−8.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−10.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:21UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:15NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:36NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:29UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:32NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:26UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:07UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:02NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:15NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:45UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:02UNM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 10:26UNM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 7:37NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 5:22NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1INT TD
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3940% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
60.0%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+43
60.2%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted for a TD Jerrick Reed II return for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0640% → 41%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
60.2%
Josh Adkins run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (De'John Rogers) to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
60.1%
Josh Adkins run for 6 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
60.1%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
60.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 5 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
60.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 14 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
60.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+13
60.1%
Adkins, Josh pass incomplete to Nicholson, Tony (MARTIN, Donte), PENALTY NM unsportsmanlike conduct (VAINIKOLO, Alex) 13 yards to the NM12, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
60.1%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the NMex 12Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+9
60.1%
Adkins, Josh pass incomplete to Clark, OJ, PENALTY NM pass interference (BEATON, Letayve) 9 yards to the NM3, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
60.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+8
60.1%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.4%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Elijah Lilly for no gain to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
60.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+7
59.8%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 7 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+58
59.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 63 yds for a touchback NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2840% → 46%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
59.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.8%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
59.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+13
60.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 13 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
59.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
59.3%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+9
59.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
59.3%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+16
59.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 16 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
59.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+11
59.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tevis Abraham for 6 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (De'John Rogers) to the NMex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.5%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0756% → 62%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
55.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 42 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
57.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+10
57.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
57.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-5
57.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+15
57.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:5441% → 42%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
59.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 41 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.5%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
57.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+13
58.0%
Adkins, Josh pass incomplete to Wyatt, Jared, PENALTY NM pass interference (COLLIER, Tony) 13 yards to the NM18, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
57.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
57.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tevis Abraham for 3 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
57.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Naveon MitchellSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
57.6%
Dylan Brown 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:0458% → 60%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anu Somoye for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
58.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
58.1%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
58.1%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+23
59.1%
Ahmari Davis run for 23 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
59.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Elijah LillySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
59.4%
Bryson Carroll run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
58.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Elijah LillySimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
60.3%
Andrew Shelley 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5942% → 53%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
58.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 16 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
57.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 1
50
+6
56.2%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
56.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
56.5%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the NMex 39 Christian Gibson fumbled, forced by Brandon Shook, recovered by NMxSt Jared WyattSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
56.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 4 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+6
57.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 6 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+27
55.6%
Jason Huntley run for 27 yds to the NMex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
55.6%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.2%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0650% → 60%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
50.0%
Bryson Carroll run for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
51.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete, broken up by Javahn FergursonSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
49.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
51.7%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
50.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+55
60.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 55 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 0:3444% → 42%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
55.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 6 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
54.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-10
54.4%
Adkins, Josh pass complete to Mitchell, N. for 10 yards to the NM49 (BEATON, Letayve), PENALTY NMSU holding (Young, Austin) 10 yards to the NMSU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-8
57.4%
Josh Adkins sacked by Dylan Horton and Alex Hart for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
58.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 49 yds, downed at the NMex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
59.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
59.3%
Ahmari Davis run for 7 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
59.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
58.4%
Tyson Dyer punt for 56 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
56.4%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
56.4%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+1
57.2%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+5
58.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 49 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 5 yds to the NMex 16 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal block (Tony Collier) to the NMex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:0260% → 72%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
59.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 9 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
62.1%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+47
61.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 47 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
63.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
63.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0530% → 50%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian Gibson, broken up by Adebayo SoremekunSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.2%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
70.3%
Christian Gibson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+53
68.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 53 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
49.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
59.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:3160% → 65%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
59.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+31
59.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 31 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
62.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
62.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 49Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+14
59.5%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
62.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+5
61.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense (Xander Yarberough) to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
62.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Bryson Carroll for 5 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
63.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Javahn FergursonSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
62.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem Umeh, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+49
65.0%
Andrew Shelley 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:0838% → 55%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
62.3%
Jason Huntley run for 31 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
59.4%
Josh Adkins run for 6 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
57.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+10
60.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 10 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
59.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
59.2%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
59.2%
Josh Adkins run for 6 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
59.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 8:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3051% → 69%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.6%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
50.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Elijah LillySimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 11 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
48.6%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 7 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+3
51.2%
Daevon Vigilant run for 3 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
51.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 17 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
52.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
52.0%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
52.1%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
54.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
54.3%
Ahmari Davis run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
68.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4342% → 35%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
57.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Max Wilhite) to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
59.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Tony CollierSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+5
60.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
60.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
65.2%
Dylan Brown 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Devin SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:4765% → 85%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
65.4%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+6
65.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 6 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
66.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+62
85.0%
Cedric Patterson III 62 Yd pass from Tevaka Tuioti (Andrew Shelley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -17 yds · 1:0217% → 13%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
82.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-5
81.8%
Josh Adkins sacked by Devin Sanders for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 27
OWN 18
0
87.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 60 yds, downed at the NMex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:2185% → 97%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
84.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 5 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+15
85.0%
TUIOTI, Tevaka pass incomplete to LILLY, Elijah, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Phipps, Jared) 15 yards to the NM42, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
86.2%
Elijah Lilly run for 2 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+8
86.3%
Bryson Carroll run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
86.5%
Bryson Carroll run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+29
86.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 29 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 17
OPP 23
+12
86.4%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Xander Yarberough) to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
86.8%
Daevon Vigilant run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Daevon Vigilant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:494% → 13%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
95.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 18 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
95.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 10 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
95.5%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+19
95.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 19 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
94.7%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
94.7%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+5
95.2%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
94.7%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the NMex 4Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4891% → 93%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
90.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMex 36Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
91.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+17
92.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted Austin Perkins return for 17 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:098% → 37%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
91.9%
Jason Huntley run for 31 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
89.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+11
89.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 11 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
89.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Naveon MitchellSimilar
Q4 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.5%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26END OF GAME
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:4376% → 96%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.3%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 11 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
77.6%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
79.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-9
80.1%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+14
86.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 14 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+17
87.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
89.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
89.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:22
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-26.4
TD · Q3 1:02
Cedric Patterson III 62 Yd pass from Tevaka Tuioti (Andrew Shelley Kick)
+18.5
TD · Q2 0:02
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com