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SDSU

San Diego State 31 at New Mexico State 10

NMSU
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:10 · Brandon Heicklen punt for 29 yds, downed at the NMxSt 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior−2.4Home team on offense−51.2Score differential−30.9Garbage-time factor−10.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:55: Jordan Byrd 1 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:01: Matt Araiza 40 Yd Field Goal — SDSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:43: Jordan Byrd 7 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:55: Robert Downs III 35 Yd pass from Josh Adkins (Dylan Brown Kick) — NMSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:11: Chance Bell 18 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:18NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:09SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:09SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:53NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:09SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:07NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 29 at NMSU 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:51SDSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:47SDSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 41, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:23NMSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:11NMSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:11NMSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 19, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:28SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:10SDSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 35, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 9:55SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:43SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:55NMSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:11SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
13.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
13.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-5
13.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+8
13.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
13.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 5 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
13.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
13.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe Smith, broken up by Myles VigneSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
13.4%
Ryan Agnew pass intercepted Austin Perkins return for 3 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-12
14.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Austin Perkins) to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 22
OWN 3
+9
14.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 9 yds Drew Dan fumbled, forced by Darren Hall, recovered by SDSt Dwayne Johnson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q1 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.7%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
14.1%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
14.8%
Adkins, Josh pass complete to Nicholson, Tony for loss of 8 yards to the NMSU20 (THOMPSON, Tariq), PENALTY NMSU holding 5 yards to the NMSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
14.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 2 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
14.6%
Josh Adkins sacked by Cameron Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
14.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 63 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
15.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 14 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
15.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
15.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chase JasminSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+9
15.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 9 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
15.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
15.1%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
14.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
15.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 4 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-2
15.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jordan Byrd for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
15.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
16.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
16.5%
Christian Gibson run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
16.6%
Josh Adkins sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+7
16.4%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+8
16.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 8 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+4
16.4%
Payton Theisler punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 20 , Jordan Byrd returns for 4 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 6:3783% → 87%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
16.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 14 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
16.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
16.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+14
16.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 14 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
16.4%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
16.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+9
16.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 9 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
16.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
16.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
16.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 4 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.9%
Jordan Byrd 1 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.9%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
14.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
13.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
13.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
14.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+18
14.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 18 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
14.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Shea Holebrook Jr.Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
14.8%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Luq Barcoo return for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
13.7%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
13.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+6
14.0%
Chance Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
13.6%
Chance Bell run for 11 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
13.5%
Chance Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+7
13.4%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
13.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Daniel Bellinger, broken up by Javahn FergursonSimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
13.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+5
13.6%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
13.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+11
13.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 51 yds , OJ Clark returns for 11 yds to the NMxSt 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jason Huntley) to the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1814% → 13%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
13.5%
Adkins, Josh rush for 3 yards to the NMSU16 (TEZINO, Kyahva), PENALTY NMSU holding (Bello, Tony) 7 yards to the NMSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 17
OWN 6
-3
13.4%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 20
OWN 3
0
13.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 20
OWN 3
+9
13.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
13.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the NMxSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:0088% → 91%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
12.0%
AGNEW, Ryan pass complete to BYRD, Jordan for 12 yards to the NMSU36 (Muse, Anthony), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+13
12.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 13 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-5
11.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 12
50
+10
11.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 10 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+5
11.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
11.4%
Ryan Agnew run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+7
11.3%
Ryan Agnew run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+40
8.6%
Matt Araiza 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
11.9%
Jason Huntley run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.2%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
11.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
11.8%
Adkins, Josh pass complete to Lottie, Izaiah for 7 yards to the NMSU44 (CASSIDY, Troy), PENALTY NMSU illegal block (Clark, OJ) 15 yards to the NMSU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 22
-4
11.2%
Josh Adkins sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 29
OWN 18
0
11.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 29
OWN 18
0
11.0%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 29
OWN 18
0
11.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
9.5%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
9.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+5
9.6%
Ryan Agnew run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
9.4%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
9.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe Smith, broken up by Rashie Hodge Jr.Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+3
9.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
10.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Parker Houston, broken up by Javahn FergursonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
10.6%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
10.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+17
10.6%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Kyahva Tezino return for 17 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:3292% → 97%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
8.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, (Austin Perkins) to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
3.2%
Jordan Byrd 7 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:484% → 11%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
4.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
4.2%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
4.2%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
4.1%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
4.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 12 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
4.4%
Josh Adkins sacked by Andrew Aleki for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
4.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs III, broken up by Keshawn BanksSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+18
4.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 18 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
4.5%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+7
4.5%
Josh Adkins run for 7 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+35
10.9%
Robert Downs III 35 Yd pass from Josh Adkins (Dylan Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
8.2%
Chance Bell run for 22 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
7.7%
Chance Bell run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
7.5%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
7.5%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
7.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
8.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:119% → 11%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
9.1%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+34
9.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 34 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
10.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
11.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Shea Holebrook Jr., broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
10.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 3 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
10.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
10.7%
Dylan Brown 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1292% → 99%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
8.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
8.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 7 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
7.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
7.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
7.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
7.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+16
7.0%
Chance Bell run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
1.3%
Chance Bell 18 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 56 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-12
2.0%
Josh Adkins sacked by Myles Cheatum for a loss of 12 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-5
1.9%
Adkins, Josh pass complete to Nicholson, Tony for 19 yards to the NMSU37 (THOMPSON, Tariq), PENALTY NMSU holding (Guerrero) 5 yards to the NMSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+35
1.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 35 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
2.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
2.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 10 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
2.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
2.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-1
2.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+14
2.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 14 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
2.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs III, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-7
2.4%
Josh Adkins run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 24 Josh Adkins fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Josh AdkinsSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+5
2.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 12
OPP 19
0
2.1%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
1.0%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+11
1.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 11 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-3
1.0%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 5
OWN 24
-6
1.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Tayler Hawkins) to the SDSt 18Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 11
OWN 18
+5
1.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 48 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
1.1%
Josh Adkins sacked by Myles Cheatum and Cameron Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+20
1.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 20 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
1.1%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
1.1%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+4
1.2%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
1.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Shea Holebrook Jr. for 9 yds Shea Holebrook Jr. fumbled, forced by Darren Hall, recovered by SDSt Tariq Thompson , return for 45 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
0.6%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-4
0.6%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+2
0.6%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 10
OPP 30
-5
0.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 15
OPP 35
0
0.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 29 yds, downed at the NMxSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25Uncategorized
1 play · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
0.7%
Naveon Mitchell run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:55
Robert Downs III 35 Yd pass from Josh Adkins (Dylan Brown Kick)
+6.4
TD · Q4 11:11
Chance Bell 18 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)
-5.7
TD · Q3 8:43
Jordan Byrd 7 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)
-5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com