Try the model
NAVY

Navy 20 at Notre Dame 52

ND
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Notre Dame Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:11 · Myles Fells run for 5 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Home team on offense+36.1Score differential+29.5Pregame prior+5.1Blowout margin+17.5Garbage-time factor+8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:39: Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +1.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:11: Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 47 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +3.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:32: Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +5.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:27: Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 70 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +4.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Bijan Nichols 27 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +0.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:11ND 4th & 1 at NAVY 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:02NAVY 4th & 3 at ND 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:36NAVY 4th & 17 at NAVY 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:08NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 44, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:45ND 4th & 6 at NAVY 14, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00NAVY 4th & 4 at ND 10, down 38
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:04NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 41, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:17NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 45, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:18ND 4th & 8 at ND 39, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:52ND 4th & 3 at ND 32, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:06NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:11NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 43, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:01NAVY 4th & 1 at ND 3, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:19ND 4th & 1 at ND 44, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:18NAVY 4th & 8 at ND 19, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:39ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:11ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:32ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:27ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:59ND Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:55ND Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:42NAVY Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:39ND Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:31NAVY Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1376% → 77%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+23
76.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 23 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
76.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
76.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 14 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
76.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-3
75.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 18
OPP 40
+2
75.7%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+15
75.5%
Ian Book run for 15 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
75.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
75.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+10
75.6%
Braden Lenzy run for 10 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
77.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FUMBLE
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:4524% → 23%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
76.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
76.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 1
50
+3
76.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
75.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 8 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
75.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
75.6%
Myles Fells run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+8
76.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+2
77.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+3
77.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
76.7%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 27 Malcolm Perry fumbled, recovered by NDame Asmar BilalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0178% → 82%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
78.1%
Lawrence Keys III run for 11 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
82.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 47 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:1819% → 19%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
80.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
80.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
80.2%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
80.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
80.8%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-3
80.9%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:2383% → 90%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
83.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 15 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
83.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 14 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
83.8%
Ian Book run for 7 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5411% → 10%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
88.7%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-4
89.2%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Ovie Oghoufo for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+1
89.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+2
89.9%
Owen White punt for 44 yds , Chris Finke returns for 2 yds to the NDame 20 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
94.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 70 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:135% → 5%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.0%
Tazh Maloy run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
95.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
95.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
95.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-1
95.2%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:1096% → 98%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
96.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 12 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
96.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+8
96.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 8 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
96.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
96.9%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
97.0%
Ian Book run for no gain to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
97.7%
Jonathan Doerer 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:272% → 2%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
98.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+3
98.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 24 Malcolm Perry fumbled, recovered by NDame Drew WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4998% → 99%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
98.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
98.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
98.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
98.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 3 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
98.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole KmetSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+7
98.5%
Ian Book run for 7 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
11 plays · 72 yds · 0:571% → 2%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.0%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+14
99.0%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 14 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.0%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 6 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
98.8%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+46
98.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 46 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
98.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
98.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
98.6%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
97.7%
Bijan Nichols 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:411% → 1%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
98.7%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+4
98.9%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+2
98.9%
Tazh Maloy run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
99.0%
Owen White punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:0499% → 99%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+27
99.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 27 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
99.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 28 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole KmetSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tony Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 20 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.4%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 16 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.4%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+7
99.5%
Owen White punt for 44 yds , Chris Finke returns for 7 yds to the NDame 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.5%
Jahmir Smith run for 2 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+17
99.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 17 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.5%
Jafar Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-6
99.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+4
99.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Garrett Winn at the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:180% → 0%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.6%
Perry Olsen run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+7
99.7%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+9
99.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 9 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+1
99.7%
Perry Olsen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 3
50
+7
99.7%
Perry Olsen run for 7 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.8%
Perry Olsen pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 43 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Jafar Armstrong run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.7%
Jafar Armstrong run for 3 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
99.8%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Garrett Winn at the Navy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:070% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Perry Olsen pass incomplete to Ryan MitchellSimilar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-27
99.8%
Paul Moala 27 Yd Fumble Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 8:530% → 0%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Perry Olsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Perry Olsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for 4 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
Myles Fells run for 5 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+13
99.9%
CJ Williams run for 13 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+1
99.9%
CJ Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+26
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 26 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the NDame 11Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+8
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for 8 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the NDame 3Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Perry Olsen run for 2 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NDame 36Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Jafar Armstrong run for 5 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec run for 3 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Phil Jurkovec run for no gain to the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Perry Olsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+23
100.0%
Myles Fells run for 23 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
100.0%
Chance Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
100.0%
Perry Olsen run for no gain to the NDame 21Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+2
100.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
100.0%
Bijan Nichols 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:22100% → 100%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 23Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-3
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:32
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q2 10:27
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 70 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q1 3:11
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 47 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com