2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:55 · Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:55: Andrew Brito pass complete to Kyle Horn for 56 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK) — MASS win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:00: Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — MASS win probability +0.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:48: Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:34: Connor Slomka run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:56: Artice Hobbs IV run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 15:00MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 3:51MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q1 2:55ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:22MASS 4th & 16 at ARMY 49, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 6:32ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 42, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q2 2:22MASS 4th & 18 at MASS 9, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−0.411% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.8%average punt
- Q3 13:10MASS 4th & 17 at MASS 35, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 11:48MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 45, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:45ARMY 4th & 1 at MASS 36, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%71% to convertField goal99.5%−0.242% to makePunt99.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:45ARMY 4th & 15 at MASS 39, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.117% to convertField goal99.7%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 7:17MASS 4th & 17 at MASS 8, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 2:25MASS 4th & 2 at ARMY 43, down 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goal0.0%−0.228% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:46MASS 4th & 15 at MASS 20, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:14ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:55MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.1%97% to makeGo for two3.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:00ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:48ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:34ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:56ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:54ARMY Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:33ARMY Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:55ARMY Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:55ARMY Touchdown, up 55 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+39
98.2%
George Georgopoulos punt for 39 yds , Akyah Miranda returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD5 plays · 52 yds · 2:1198% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3TD5 plays · 68 yds · 1:122% → 3%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
97.5%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Kyle Horn for 56 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:5598% → 97%
Q1 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+22
97.6%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 7 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Jarvis Miller) to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
97.6%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Brandon Walters for 3 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+15
97.6%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Michael Roberts for 15 yds to the UMass 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 3:51
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
97.1%
George Georgopoulos punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Akyah Miranda at the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD12 plays · 73 yds · 6:0797% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 11:42
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+16
96.9%
Andrew Brito pass intercepted Ryan Velez return for 16 yds to the UMass 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD2 plays · 12 yds · 0:5097% → 99%
MASSDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 0:002% → 2%
ARMYDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 6:32
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
98.3%
Zach Harding punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Rodgers at the UMass 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11DOWNS7 plays · -8 yds · 0:142% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD3 plays · 9 yds · 1:2399% → 100%
MASSDrive 13END OF HALF6 plays · 16 yds · 0:401% → 1%
ARMYDrive 14FUMBLE5 plays · 48 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
MASSDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
99.7%
BRITO, Andrew pass incomplete to EMILUS, Samuel, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Riley, Elijah) 15 yards to the UMASS42, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-7
99.7%
Andrew Brito sacked by Jacob Covington and Donavan Lynch for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD1 play · 83 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.7%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 7 yds to the UMass 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:17
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-3
99.8%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Josiah Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 13Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 12
OWN 13
-5
99.8%
Andrew Brito sacked by Edriece Patterson for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 8Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 17
OWN 8
-7
99.8%
George Georgopoulos punt for 45 yds , Akyah Miranda returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Army 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20TD7 plays · 60 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q3 4:57
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+18
99.9%
Malik Hancock run for 9 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, targeting (Tyshaun Ingram) to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21INT7 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
99.9%
Randall West pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 15 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Randall West pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 4 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Randall West pass complete to Michael Curtis for 5 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.9%
Randall West pass intercepted Elijah Riley return for 12 yds to the Army 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22TD12 plays · 60 yds · 5:10100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UMass Randall WestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 24TD13 plays · 70 yds · 7:10100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25Uncategorized2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:34
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 0:56
Artice Hobbs IV run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 11:48
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+0.6