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ARMY

Army 13 at Air Force 17

AF
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:08 · Zach Harding punt for 78 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+9.4Home team on offense+6.7Garbage-time factor+0.3Score differential+0.8Blowout margin+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:17: Jabari Laws run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Talley PAT MISSED) — ARMY win probability +8.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:35: Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +15.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:22: Jabari Laws pass complete to Camden Harrison for 87 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +20.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:08: Joshua Stoner run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +16.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 0:33: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 3 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AFA Kadin Remsberg — AF win probability +12.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at AF 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:11AF 4th & 9 at AF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:08AF 4th & 2 at ARMY 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:17ARMY 4th & 2 at AF 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:37ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 19, up 3
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:52AF 4th & 5 at AF 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:20ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:55AF 4th & 1 at ARMY 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−4.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−15.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:08ARMY 4th & 13 at ARMY 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−3.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:04AF 4th & 8 at AF 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:34ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:49AF 4th & 7 at ARMY 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−3.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:38ARMY 4th & 5 at AF 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−13.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−23.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 1:17ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:35AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:22ARMY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:08AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1DOWNS
16 plays · 74 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.6%
Jabari Laws run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
86.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+38
86.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 38 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
86.6%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+2
86.6%
Jabari Laws run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+10
86.6%
Jabari Laws run for 10 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
86.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 11 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
86.6%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
86.6%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
86.6%
McCoy, Sandon rush for no gain to the AF3, out-of-bounds (HERRERA, Christ), PENALTY ARMY holding (Knapp, Noah) 10 yards to the AF13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
86.6%
Laws, Jabari pass incomplete to Harrison, C., PENALTY AF holding (LEWIS, Zane) 7 yards to the AF6, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.6%
Jabari Laws run for no gain to the AFA 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
86.6%
Jabari Laws run for 4 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.6%
Jabari Laws run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 1:1584% → 83%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
83.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+6
83.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
83.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+8
83.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 8 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
83.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
83.7%
Taven Birdow run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
83.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
83.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-3
83.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+3
83.2%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
83.1%
Charlie Scott punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:1019% → 19%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
81.1%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 13 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
80.8%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
80.8%
Jabari Laws run for 2 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+1
81.0%
Jabari Laws run for 1 yd to the Army 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
81.4%
Zach Harding punt for 47 yds, downed at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FG
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:5381% → 81%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
80.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 13 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
81.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+22
81.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 22 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
82.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+32
82.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 32 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
82.3%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the Army 4Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
82.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 5Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
81.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 10Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
80.6%
Joshua Stoner run for 8 yds to the Army 2Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
81.4%
Jake Koehnke 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:5120% → 33%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
79.6%
Jabari Laws run for 1 yd to the Army 36Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
79.6%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Camden Harrison for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
78.8%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
78.7%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the Army 46Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
78.8%
Jabari Laws run for 1 yd to the Army 47Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+9
79.1%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 9 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+38
78.3%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Malik Hancock for 38 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
77.5%
Slomka, Connor rush for 2 yards to the AF4 (JACKSON, Jordan), PENALTY ARMY false start (Deaton, Jaxson) 5 yards to the AF11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
77.5%
Jabari Laws run for 3 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
77.5%
Jabari Laws run for 3 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
78.1%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.6%
Jabari Laws run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Talley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6INT
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:1370% → 70%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
69.6%
Joshua Stoner run for 11 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
70.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 19 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
72.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Army 49Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
70.4%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+56
70.2%
Donald Hammond III pass intercepted Elijah Riley return for 56 yds to the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.0%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
70.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
69.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+53
69.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 53 yds , Akyah Miranda returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2633% → 31%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
67.2%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 2 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
67.2%
Jabari Laws run for 3 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+1
67.9%
Jabari Laws run for 1 yd to the Army 19Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 4
OWN 19
+2
68.9%
Zach Harding punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 32 , Ben Peterson returns for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
67.8%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
70.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-1
69.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+41
66.8%
Charlie Scott punt for 31 yds, downed at the AIRFORCE 32 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Army 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
63.9%
Jabari Laws run for no gain to the Army 22Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
64.1%
Jabari Laws run for 5 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-5
64.4%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 22Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+3
65.1%
Jabari Laws run for 3 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
66.0%
Zach Harding punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ben Peterson at the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 4:2066% → 83%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
65.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 40 yds to the Army 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
70.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
70.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
68.6%
Joshua Stoner run for 5 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
70.4%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
70.4%
Joshua Stoner run for 5 yds to the Army 5Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+1
68.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the Army 4Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
67.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the Army 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1322% → 43%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
78.2%
ARMY Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the Army 13Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
57.3%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Camden Harrison for 87 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:0861% → 83%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
60.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
61.0%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+30
61.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 30 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
65.1%
Joshua Stoner run for 10 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
67.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-5
66.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Daniel Morris) to the Army 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-1
66.1%
Joshua Stoner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+16
62.9%
Joshua Stoner run for 16 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
66.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the Army 5Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.8%
Joshua Stoner run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
77.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Army 15 ARMY Penalty, intentional grounding (Jabari Laws) to the Army 15Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+7
77.7%
Sandon McCoy run for 7 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
78.8%
Jabari Laws pass incomplete to Kell WalkerSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
79.5%
Zach Harding punt for 78 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 76%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
78.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
78.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
77.1%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-8
76.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 45 yds , Akyah Miranda returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.6%
Jabari Laws run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
76.4%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
76.9%
Jabari Laws run for 1 yd to the Army 31Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
78.0%
Zach Harding punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Ben Peterson at the AFA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:4978% → 87%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
78.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+8
77.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 8 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
78.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
78.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+7
77.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 7 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
80.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
80.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 7 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
81.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-2
88.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 45Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
87.9%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud Sanders, broken up by Jaylon McClintonSimilar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
86.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:1522% → 19%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
78.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
78.5%
Jabari Laws pass incomplete to Artice Hobbs IV, broken up by Grant TheilSimilar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+15
80.1%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 15 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
76.2%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Kjetil Cline for 5 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+8
74.0%
Jabari Laws run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
50
+11
72.5%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Camden Harrison for 11 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
72.5%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Sandon McCoy) to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+37
74.7%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Brandon Walters for 31 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Jackson) to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden HarrisonSimilar
Q4 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
69.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
70.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden Harrison, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Artice Hobbs IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 3 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AFA Kadin RemsbergSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 12
OWN 3
-2
94.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:22
Jabari Laws pass complete to Camden Harrison for 87 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
-20.9
TD · Q4 13:08
Joshua Stoner run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q3 2:35
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com