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TULN

Tulane 42 at Army 33

ARMY
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:54 · Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:12: Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +6.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:26: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (David Cooper KICK) — ARMY win probability +5.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:31: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (David Cooper KICK) — ARMY win probability +14.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:38: Darius Bradwell run for 13 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +14.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:27: Amare Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +17.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:53ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:00ARMY 4th & 16 at TULN 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:18TULN 4th & 18 at TULN 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:57ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:11ARMY 4th & 7 at TULN 36, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:38ARMY 4th & 15 at ARMY 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:05TULN 4th & 5 at ARMY 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−1.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:05TULN 4th & 10 at ARMY 35, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:06ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:17ARMY 4th & 11 at TULN 31, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:51TULN 4th & 13 at TULN 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:39ARMY 4th & 10 at TULN 21, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:33TULN 4th & 8 at ARMY 44, up 9
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:41ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:53TULN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:00TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:12TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:26ARMY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:31ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:38TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:27TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:46TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:55ARMY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
43.9%
Darius Bradwell run for 6 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-2
43.9%
Justin McMillan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 38 Justin McMillan fumbled, recovered by Army Arik SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
2 plays · 38 yds · 0:3844% → 45%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+36
44.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 36 yds to the Tulan 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.9%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Cooper KICK) TULANE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:3955% → 56%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
44.9%
Darius Bradwell run for 8 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+2
44.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 2 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
44.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 9 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+18
44.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 18 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
44.7%
Amare Jones run for 20 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
44.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 10 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
44.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 15 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.1%
Laws, Jabari rush for 5 yards to the ARMY30 (SAMPLE, C.), PENALTY ARMY false start (Deaton, Jaxson) 5 yards to the ARMY20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
45.1%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
45.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
44.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden HarrisonSimilar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
44.8%
Zach Harding punt for 56 yds, downed at the Tulan 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 4:1155% → 59%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
45.4%
Corey Dauphine run for 4 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
45.5%
Corey Dauphine run for 4 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+5
45.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 5 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
45.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darius Bradwell for 6 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-5
45.1%
TULANE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 30Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+18
45.4%
Amare Jones run for 18 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
44.9%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
45.0%
Justin McMillan run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 8
50
+20
45.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 20 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
41.4%
Corey Dauphine run for 30 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.6%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
42.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
42.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 28 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
42.9%
Cade Barnard run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-13
44.3%
Kell Walker run for a loss of 13 yards to the Tulan 48Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 23
OPP 48
+7
43.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Michael Roberts for 7 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 16
OPP 41
0
42.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Kell WalkerSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
42.3%
Zach Potter punt for 31 yds, downed at the Tulan 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 2:5259% → 67%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
41.5%
Justin McMillan run for 6 yds to the Tulan 16Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
41.5%
Cameron Sample run for 3 yds to the Tulan 19Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+14
41.6%
Cameron Sample run for 14 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
40.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 10 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
40.1%
JONES, A. rush for 23 yards to the ARMY34 (Christiansen, C), PENALTY TLN face mask (CLAYBROOK, J.) 9 yards to the TLN34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 19
OWN 34
+50
41.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 50 yds to the Army 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
39.6%
McMILLAN, J. pass incomplete to MCCLESKEY, J., PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Bordeau, J.) 14 yards to the ARMY2, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.6%
Amare Jones run for 1 yd to the Army 1Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.0%
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 8:3935% → 42%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
35.0%
Connor Slomka run for 6 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
35.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
35.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+12
36.0%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 12 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
36.5%
Connor Slomka run for 9 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
36.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Artice Hobbs IVSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
36.4%
Cade Barnard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
36.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+12
36.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 12 yds to the Tulan 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
36.9%
Cade Barnard run for 3 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
36.9%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
36.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
36.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 9 yds to the Tulan 3Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
36.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (David Cooper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
37.4%
Darius Bradwell run for 8 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+11
36.3%
Justin McMillan run for 11 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
35.6%
Justin McMillan sacked by Ryan Velez for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 35Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 18
OWN 35
0
37.8%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Amare JonesSimilar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 18
OWN 35
0
38.6%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
39.0%
Ryan Wright punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 33 yds · 2:2638% → 37%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
37.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
38.1%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Army 34Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
37.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
37.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kell Walker for 8 yds to the Tulan 46 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
39.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden HarrisonSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
39.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden HarrisonSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+3
38.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 7
OPP 36
-6
37.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. sacked by Patrick Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0368% → 68%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
31.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 6 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
32.4%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Jaetavian TolesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2936% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
36.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 43 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
41.1%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
41.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulan 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+14
39.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 14 yds to the Tulan 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
41.1%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the Tulan 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
41.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulan 4Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
55.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (David Cooper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:4651% → 71%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
48.8%
Cameron Sample run for 3 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+13
48.5%
Amare Jones run for 13 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
46.8%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 13 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
45.2%
Cameron Sample run for 2 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+9
45.3%
Corey Dauphine run for 9 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
45.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 8 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+9
43.8%
Corey Dauphine run for 9 yds to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
43.8%
Corey Dauphine run for 5 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+2
43.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 2 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
29.2%
Darius Bradwell run for 13 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.3%
Connor Slomka run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
36.2%
Kell Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 30Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
33.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Army 30Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-10
32.4%
Christiansen, C rush for 31 yards to the TLN39 (JONES, A.), PENALTY ARMY holding (Moore, Jabari) 10 yards to the ARMY20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
32.0%
Zach Harding punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0072% → 69%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
27.9%
Darius Bradwell run for no gain to the Army 45Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
28.0%
Darius Bradwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 47Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+7
29.3%
Justin McMillan run for 7 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+5
29.8%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 5 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
27.5%
Corey Dauphine run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 38Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 13
OPP 38
-5
28.2%
TULANE Penalty, false start (Will Wallace) to the Army 43Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+8
28.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 8 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
28.4%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Jaetavian Toles, broken up by Malkelm MorrisonSimilar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
30.6%
Ryan Wright punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
32.2%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
32.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Army 23Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
30.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete, broken up by Cameron SampleSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
29.9%
Zach Harding punt for 55 yds, downed at the Tulan 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:0371% → 94%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
28.6%
Amare Jones run for 3 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
27.0%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+19
28.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 19 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
25.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 17 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
24.4%
Cameron Sample run for 12 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
22.0%
Justin McMillan run for 7 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+1
22.0%
Amare Jones run for 1 yd to the Army 19Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+7
22.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 7 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
22.0%
Darius Bradwell run for 7 yds to the Army 5Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
22.0%
Darius Bradwell run for 1 yd to the Army 4Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
22.8%
Cameron Sample run for 3 yds to the Army 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.7%
Amare Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 11%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
13.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Kell Walker, broken up by Larry BryantSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
13.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-5
12.9%
Artice Hobbs IV run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 31Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 11
OPP 31
-1
11.3%
Jabari Laws run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 2:5495% → 99%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
5.4%
Corey Dauphine run for 11 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
5.1%
Corey Dauphine run for 6 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
5.0%
Cameron Carroll run for 5 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
4.9%
Amare Jones run for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+41
0.7%
Cameron Carroll run for 41 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kell Walker for 12 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass intercepted Chase Kuerschen return for no gain to the Army 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:3899% → 100%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
0.6%
TULANE Penalty, false start (Christian Montano) to the Tulan 47Similar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+6
0.7%
Cameron Carroll run for 6 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-1
0.7%
Cameron Sample run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 48Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-3
0.5%
Justin McMillan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 49Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
0.5%
Ryan Wright punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 0:441% → 5%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+37
1.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Brandon Walters for 37 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
1.2%
TULANE Penalty, roughing passer (Patrick Johnson) to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
1.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden HarrisonSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
1.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon WaltersSimilar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
1.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Malik HancockSimilar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+10
1.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 10 yds to the Tulan 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
4.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1898% → 95%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
1.6%
Amare Jones run for 3 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+54
5.5%
Justin McMillan sacked for a loss of 11 yards Justin McMillan fumbled, recovered by Army Jabari Moore , return for 0 yards , return for 54 yds, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
5.4%
Cameron Carroll run for 2 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
5.5%
Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd to the Army 43Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+4
5.6%
Cameron Sample run for 4 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-5
5.8%
TULANE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Army 44Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
6.0%
Ryan Wright punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
5.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 18 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
5.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden HarrisonSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
5.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Kell WalkerSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-5
4.9%
ARMY Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Army 23Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+5
4.9%
TULANE Penalty, encroachment (Malik Lawal) to the Army 28Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+3
4.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 14 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST down to Kell Walker for 3 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
5.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Artice Hobbs IVSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
5.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+2
5.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:27
Amare Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q3 7:38
Darius Bradwell run for 13 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q3 11:31
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (David Cooper KICK)
+14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com