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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreRICE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Chris Barnes punt for 35 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 4 yds to the UTEP 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:02: Aston Walter run for 30 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK) — RICE win probability +5.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:38: Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 12 yds for a TD RICE Penalty, roughing passer (Blaze Alldredge) to the Rice 0 UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rice 6 (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +7.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Gavin Baechle 45 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +11.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:16: Chris Barnes 21 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +5.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:44: JoVoni Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK) — RICE win probability +17.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 15:00UTEP 4th & 20 at UTEP 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.6%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q1 11:48UTEP 4th & 18 at RICE 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snapGo for it34.7%−0.113% to convertField goal34.8%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q2 11:31RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 44, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snapGo for it58.8%−1.020% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.8%average punt
- Q2 9:13UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 45, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it40.2%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.8%average punt
- Q2 4:57RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 22, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snapGo for it57.2%−1.038% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.2%average punt
- Q3 15:00RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 42, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it51.4%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.6%average punt
- Q3 12:12UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 26, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snapGo for it47.9%−2.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.7%average punt
- Q3 7:16RICE 4th & 2 at UTEP 2, down 2Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snapGo for it50.0%48% to convertField goalTheir call47.6%−2.494% to makePunt37.2%−12.8average punt
- Q3 7:12UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 19, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snapGo for it40.4%−3.022% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.4%average punt
- Q3 0:36UTEP 4th & 15 at RICE 32, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snapGo for it19.9%−2.417% to convertField goalTheir call22.3%51% to makePunt20.5%−1.8average punt
- Q4 12:57UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 35, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt19.9%−2.6average punt
- Q4 12:57UTEP 4th & 7 at RICE 44, down 8Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snapGo for it22.4%37% to convertField goal20.4%−2.027% to makePuntTheir call22.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 4:27UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 48, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.1%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:48RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.6%97% to makeGo for two64.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:02RICE Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.1%97% to makeGo for two66.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:38UTEP Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.7%97% to makeGo for two40.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:44RICE Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.8%97% to makeGo for two71.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:27RICE Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
33.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Treyvon Hughes for 2 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-11
33.2%
Kai Locksley sacked by Anthony Ekpe for a loss of 11 yards to the UTEP 15Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+8
33.2%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 21 yds , Jordan Myers returns for 8 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2TD3 plays · 28 yds · 1:0766% → 67%
UTEPDrive 3PUNT14 plays · 34 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
33.5%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 21 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
33.7%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-15
33.8%
LOCKSLEY, Kai sideline pass complete to THOMPSON, Trent for 11 yards to the RICE21, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (COWING, Jacob) 15 yards to the RICE47, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4FUMBLE TD3 plays · -2 yds · 1:4466% → 62%
Q1 3:07
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
38.3%
Tom Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards Tom Stewart fumbled, recovered by UTEP Praise Amaewhule for a TD (Brady Viles PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5TD8 plays · 67 yds · 2:5763% → 69%
Q1 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+15
36.5%
STEWART, Tom sideline pass incomplete to ROZNER, Brad, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (ROSS, Ykili) 15 yards to the UTEP36, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
36.4%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 6 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2432% → 42%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
33.8%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 15 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
42.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 12 yds for a TD RICE Penalty, roughing passer (Blaze Alldredge) to the Rice 0 UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rice 6 (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 11:31
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+17
38.5%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Austin Trammell for 17 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-5
37.5%
Tom Stewart sacked by Sione Tupou for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 44 RICE Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 13
OWN 44
+1
39.4%
Chris Barnes punt for 46 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 1 yd to the UTEP 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 9:13
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+11
39.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 11 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
40.8%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Prudy CalderonSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+15
39.9%
LOCKSLEY, Kai deep pass incomplete to WOLF, Tre'shon, PENALTY RICE pass interference (NYAKWOL, George) 15 yards to the UTEP44, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
39.7%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10FG15 plays · 47 yds · 3:5141% → 51%
Q2 3:51
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
41.7%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 4 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+29
41.7%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Trent Thompson for 29 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+9
44.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 9 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
47.1%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 5 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
45.8%
Tom Stewart pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Chris RichardsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+4
48.3%
Chris Barnes punt for 35 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 4 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
RICEDrive 13FG9 plays · 72 yds · 4:0650% → 59%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
45.2%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Austin Trammell for 24 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
RICEDrive 15TD6 plays · 67 yds · 3:2958% → 80%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+42
39.6%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Zane Knipe for 42 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16MISSED FG11 plays · 37 yds · 2:0424% → 21%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
24.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 13 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
25.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 14 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
27.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 15 yds to the Rice 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17INT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:3680% → 82%
UTEPDrive 18PUNT12 plays · 40 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q4 12:57
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+5
18.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
20.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 16 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
23.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 3 yds to the Rice 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19TD4 plays · 80 yds · 2:3689% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 23 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
3.4%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Josh Fields UTEP Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
3.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 20 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-11
3.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 4 yds to the RICE 49 UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Darta Lee) to the UTEP 36Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 21
OWN 36
+12
3.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 12 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
3.6%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Justin Garrett, broken up by Adrian BickhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21END OF GAME3 plays · 12 yds · 0:2298% → 98%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:44
JoVoni Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK)
-17.5
FG · Q2 0:00
Gavin Baechle 45 yd FG GOOD
+11.1
TD · Q2 11:38
Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 12 yds for a TD RICE Penalty, roughing passer (Blaze Alldredge) to the Rice 0 UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rice 6 (Gavin Baechle KICK)
+7.8