Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 17 at Florida Atlantic 34

FAU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · FAU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:05 · Nick Tronti run for 7 yds to the SoMis 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:59: Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 15 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +8.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:30: Steven Anderson run for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +10.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:23: BJ Emmons run for 3 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +11.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:08: Jack Abraham run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +10.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:52: Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 22 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +7.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 12 at USM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:20FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:24USM 4th & 9 at USM 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:07FAU 4th & 12 at USM 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:07USM 4th & 9 at USM 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:50USM 4th & 6 at FAU 6, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:37FAU 4th & 11 at USM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:37USM 4th & 2 at USM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:32FAU 4th & 21 at FAU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:44USM 4th & 2 at FAU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:18FAU 4th & 14 at USM 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:18USM 4th & 2 at USM 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:52USM 4th & 18 at USM 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:35FAU 4th & 8 at USM 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:35USM 4th & 5 at USM 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:54FAU 4th & 14 at FAU 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:11USM 4th & 7 at FAU 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:18FAU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:59FAU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:30USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:23FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:08USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:52FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
69.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
69.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Khalique Washington) to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
69.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to De'Michael HarrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
69.8%
Zac Everett punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
69.7%
Malcolm Davidson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
69.7%
Malcolm Davidson run for no gain to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
69.7%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
69.6%
Matthew Hayball punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
69.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Ray Ladner for 7 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+3
69.4%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
69.4%
Trace Clopton run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 21 Trace Clopton fumbled,Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
69.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
69.5%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
69.6%
Zac Everett punt for 7 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2970% → 69%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
69.7%
Deangelo Antoine run for 6 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
69.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris Harrison, broken up by Jacques TurnerSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
69.6%
BJ Emmons run for 7 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
69.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-2
69.8%
BJ Emmons run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
69.4%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
69.3%
Vladimir Rivas 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
69.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 1 yd to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
69.4%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Rashad SmithSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
69.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to De'Michael HarrisSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
69.9%
Zac Everett punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:4769% → 73%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+39
69.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 39 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
72.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 38 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7INT
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:1829% → 28%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
70.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+20
71.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 20 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
70.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
70.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 9 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
70.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 9 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+6
70.2%
Jack Abraham run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
70.2%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
70.2%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive offside (Tim Bonner) to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+6
70.2%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
71.1%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
71.1%
Jack Abraham run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+35
72.0%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Meiko Dotson return for 50 yds to the SoMis 0 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:2974% → 83%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
74.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to James Charles for 19 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
82.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 15 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:0920% → 22%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
79.8%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+11
79.8%
Steven Anderson run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
79.4%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+16
79.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 16 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
79.2%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
79.2%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
79.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
78.0%
Andrew Stein 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
80.1%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Malik Shorts return for 34 yds to the FlAtl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
69.7%
Steven Anderson run for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:5373% → 74%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
73.4%
BJ Emmons run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
74.5%
BJ Emmons run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
74.5%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+30
74.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 30 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
74.8%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-11
74.8%
Chris Robison sacked by Terry Whittington for a loss of 11 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 21
OPP 34
+10
73.4%
Chris Robison run for 10 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
73.7%
Vladimir Rivas 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
73.5%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
73.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
72.2%
De'Michael Harris run for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
73.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete, broken up by Ray EllisSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
74.0%
Zac Everett punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
74.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-5
73.6%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (John Mitchell) to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 20
OWN 20
-1
73.6%
Chris Robison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 21
OWN 19
0
72.9%
Matthew Hayball punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
71.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 9 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+4
70.6%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
71.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Neil McLaurinSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
71.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Da'Von BrownSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+8
72.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 8 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
72.2%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Quran Hafiz return for no gain to the FlAtl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16Uncategorized
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:3975% → 76%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
74.6%
BJ Emmons run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+9
75.6%
James Charles run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.2%
ROBISON, Chris pass complete to BRYANT, Harriso for 15 yards to the FAU40 (MABERRY, Darius), PENALTY FAU ineligible downfield on pass (WEBER, Nick) 5 yards to the FAU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
74.9%
Deangelo Antoine run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
75.2%
Malcolm Davidson run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
75.2%
Malcolm Davidson run for no gain to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
74.0%
Matthew Hayball punt for 48 yds, downed at the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+24
74.5%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Akileis Leroy return for 24 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.3%
BJ Emmons run for 3 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 17%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
84.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 14 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
83.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 6 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-10
83.1%
Jack Abraham sacked by Akileis Leroy for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 26 Jack Abraham fumbled, recovered by FlAtl William Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21MISSED FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4687% → 86%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
86.9%
CHARLES, James rush for 5 yards to the USM21 (BOZEMAN, Swayze), PENALTY FAU holding (WALTON, Brandon) 10 yards to the USM36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 20
OPP 36
-2
86.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 22
OPP 38
+8
86.6%
James Charles run for 8 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 14
OPP 30
0
86.1%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+48
86.2%
Vladimir Rivas 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 8:1015% → 28%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
85.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-9
86.0%
Jack Abraham sacked by Noah Jefferson for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 24
OWN 16
+15
86.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 15 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+7
86.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 7 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+7
85.3%
Zac Everett pass complete to D.Q. Thomas for 7 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
84.6%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-5
84.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Bryce Foxworth) to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+15
85.8%
EVERETT, Zac pass incomplete to WATKINS, Quez, PENALTY FAU pass interference (PIERRE, James) 15 yards to the FAU43, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
84.0%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+2
83.6%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+10
83.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 10 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
82.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 2 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+9
82.8%
Neil McLaurin pass complete to Jack Abraham for 9 yds to the FlAtl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
82.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+8
82.8%
Steven Anderson run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
82.8%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 2Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.4%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:1683% → 94%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
83.1%
Malcolm Davidson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
83.2%
BJ Emmons run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+40
84.8%
BJ Emmons run for 40 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
86.6%
BJ Emmons run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
94.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 22 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.1%
De'Michael Harris run for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
90.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
91.3%
Jack Abraham sacked by Leighton McCarthy for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+18
91.5%
Zac Everett punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 40 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0495% → 96%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
94.6%
BJ Emmons run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+19
94.6%
Chauncey Mason run for 4 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Hayes Maples) to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
94.6%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
94.6%
BJ Emmons run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
94.5%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
96.2%
Aaron Shahriari 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.3%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
96.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 3 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Chris TooleySimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.4%
Matt Bromell punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
96.9%
Chauncey Mason run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
96.6%
Chauncey Mason run for no gain to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
96.6%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Tavaris Harrison, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
96.4%
Matthew Hayball punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
97.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 6 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
96.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+17
96.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 17 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
96.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Steven Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+6
96.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 6 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+5
96.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 5 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
96.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 2 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
96.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+1
96.8%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+16
96.8%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Akileis Leroy return for 16 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0798% → 99%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.3%
Daniel Leconte run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 8
50
+2
98.6%
Nick Tronti run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+21
98.6%
Chauncey Mason run for 21 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
98.7%
Chauncey Mason run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+7
98.7%
Nick Tronti run for 7 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:23
BJ Emmons run for 3 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q2 8:30
Steven Anderson run for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q3 1:08
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com