Try the model
UTEP

UTEP 35 at New Mexico State 44

NMSU
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:44 · Payton Theisler punt for 51 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 17 yds to the UTEP 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+10.1Home team on offense+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:55: Jason Huntley run for 53 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 4:01: Gavin Baechle 42 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +11.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:00: Jason Huntley run for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UTEP win probability +20.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:57: Tony Nicholson pass complete to Josh Adkins for 7 yds for a TD UTEP Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NMSU win probability +18.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:07UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:00UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:16NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35NMSU 4th & 10 at UTEP 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:36UTEP 4th & 3 at NMSU 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%−0.6
    83% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:30NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:29UTEP 4th & 3 at NMSU 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:44UTEP 4th & 4 at NMSU 29, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:44NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 37, up 1
    Close callPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:01UTEP 4th & 1 at NMSU 25, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%−3.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−14.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:55UTEP 4th & 3 at NMSU 23, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−1.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−14.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:49NMSU 4th & 5 at UTEP 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%−1.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−3.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:57UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:46NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 22, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−3.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:53NMSU 4th & 1 at UTEP 41, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−7.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−6.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:20NMSU 4th & 6 at UTEP 35, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 9:00NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:36UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:55NMSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:00NMSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:55UTEP Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:57NMSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:27UTEP Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:39NMSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+10
72.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
72.3%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
72.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds, downed at the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
72.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for no gain to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
72.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 5 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
72.3%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+6
72.3%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.8%
Kai Locksley run for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
71.8%
Treyvon Hughes run for no gain to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
71.9%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
72.0%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 48 yds, downed at the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:2672% → 74%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
71.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 11 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
71.6%
Jason Huntley run for 16 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
72.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Andre Bodison for 10 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
73.6%
Jason Huntley run for 39 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
14 plays · 38 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
73.0%
Treyvon Hughes run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 1Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 1
+9
73.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 9 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+7
73.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Alan Busey for 7 yds to the UTEP 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
73.0%
UTEP Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 12Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+4
73.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 4 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+11
73.1%
Josh Fields run for 11 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
72.9%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
73.0%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 22Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+20
73.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 20 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
72.7%
Kai Locksley run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 39 UTEP Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+3
72.9%
Treyvon Hughes run for 3 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
73.0%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Alan Busey, broken up by Jared PhippsSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+2
73.2%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 35 yds , OJ Clark returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.8%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
73.8%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
73.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
73.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 43 yds, downed at the UTEP 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 4:2127% → 34%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
73.2%
Treyvon Hughes run for 6 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+28
72.7%
Kai Locksley run for 28 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
72.3%
Treyvon Hughes run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+7
71.5%
Kai Locksley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
71.5%
Treyvon Hughes run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
71.5%
Kai Locksley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
65.7%
Treyvon Hughes run for 11 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:5369% → 69%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
69.1%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+57
68.9%
Jason Huntley run for 57 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
71.0%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 13Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-5
71.0%
Josh Adkins sacked by Josh Ortega for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 18Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+4
69.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
68.8%
Dylan Brown 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5933% → 39%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
66.8%
Treyvon Hughes run for 4 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
66.7%
Kai Locksley run for 10 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
66.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jess Trussell for 19 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
64.9%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 14 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
64.4%
Treyvon Hughes run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+7
64.2%
Kai Locksley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
64.2%
Treyvon Hughes run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
64.2%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Rodney McGraw IISimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+5
62.9%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+34
61.5%
Gavin Baechle 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
62.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
62.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
61.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
61.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds , Justin Garrett returns for no gain to the UTEP 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3140% → 47%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+35
60.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 35 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
58.7%
Josh Fields run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
58.7%
Josh Fields run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
58.7%
Treyvon Hughes run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.4%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Alan Busey, broken up by Rodney McGraw IISimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
50.8%
Gavin Baechle 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
52.9%
UTEP Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the UTEP 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:2955% → 71%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
54.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
71.2%
Jason Huntley run for 53 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0932% → 32%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.9%
Treyvon Hughes run for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.8%
Kai Locksley run for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:1632% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
68.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 22 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
65.5%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Darta Lee) to the UTEP 42Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+23
67.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jess Trussell for 23 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
64.2%
Treyvon Hughes run for no gain to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
64.2%
Treyvon Hughes run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+3
65.5%
Reynaldo Flores run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
66.6%
Gavin Baechle 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
68.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
68.1%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+4
67.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+17
67.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 51 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 17 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 5:5233% → 48%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
67.1%
Treyvon Hughes run for 6 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+1
65.6%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 1 yd to the UTEP 36Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+9
66.6%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 9 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
64.8%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
65.6%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 7 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
64.3%
Kai Locksley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
63.8%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 11 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
62.6%
Treyvon Hughes run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
62.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
63.8%
Kai Locksley run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+42
52.5%
Gavin Baechle 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0158% → 79%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 15 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
61.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Justin Rogers) to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
62.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs III, broken up by Josh CaldwellSimilar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
62.4%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+33
61.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 33 yds to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
64.6%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 7Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
79.2%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0524% → 48%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
76.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 27 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
72.4%
Kai Locksley run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
70.8%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
70.7%
Josh Fields run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+5
72.8%
Kai Locksley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+23
52.3%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:5257% → 82%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
57.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
56.9%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+32
54.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 32 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
61.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian GibsonSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
61.5%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
61.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs III, broken up by Josh CaldwellSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+14
58.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 14 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
64.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Andre Bodison for 13 yds to the UTEP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.4%
Tony Nicholson pass complete to Josh Adkins for 7 yds for a TD UTEP Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
82.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 21%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Tre'Shon Wolf, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Kai Locksley run for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 55 yds, downed at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.4%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
79.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
78.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Adrian HynsonSimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+1
77.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 55 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 1 yd to the UTEP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
77.3%
Kai Locksley pass intercepted Rashie Hodge Jr. return for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:3382% → 92%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
50
+5
82.2%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
82.7%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
82.1%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the UTEP 41Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
80.5%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb MillsSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
82.3%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-1
82.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Josh Adkins for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 35Similar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
92.0%
Dylan Brown 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:5011% → 3%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Treyvon Hughes run for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
96.6%
Kai Locksley sacked by Xander Yarberough for a loss of 8 yards Kai Locksley fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Matthew Young , return for 0 yards , return for 19 yds (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:034% → 12%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Justin GarrettSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+40
96.6%
Kai Locksley run for 40 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+34
95.8%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 34 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.4%
Kai Locksley run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:4095% → 98%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
94.8%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
95.2%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
95.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
98.4%
Christian Gibson run for 53 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 2:341% → 5%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 5 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+13
99.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Alan Busey for 13 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-11
99.1%
Kai Locksley sacked by Myles Vigne for a loss of 11 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 21
OWN 33
+18
99.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 18 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+19
99.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 19 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
98.9%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 18 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.9%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Walter Dawn Jr.Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-8
98.9%
Kai Locksley sacked by Roy Lopez for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 18
OPP 20
+10
99.1%
LOCKSLEY, Kai pass incomplete to WOLF, Tre'shon, PENALTY NMSU roughing passer (Yarberough, X.) 10 yards to the NMSU10, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
94.9%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 10 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-20.5
TD · Q4 11:57
Tony Nicholson pass complete to Josh Adkins for 7 yds for a TD UTEP Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+18.4
TD · Q2 0:55
Jason Huntley run for 53 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
+16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com