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Louisiana Tech 14 at UAB 20

UAB
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Legion Field
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:48 · Brady Farlow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense+8.3Pregame prior+1.5Garbage-time factor+2.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:35: Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +12.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:20: Lucious Stanley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +14.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:07: Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +18.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:07: Dylan Hopkins run for 2 yds to the UAB 27 — UAB win probability +8.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:50: Lucious Stanley run for 7 yds to the UAB 23 — UAB win probability +9.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 11LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:21UAB 4th & 3 at LT 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:21LT 4th & 13 at UAB 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 23, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27LT 4th & 4 at UAB 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:18UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 22, up 3
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00LT 4th & 18 at UAB 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:06UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 14, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:09UAB 4th & 5 at LT 14, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    61.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:09LT 4th & 6 at LT 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:15UAB 4th & 7 at LT 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:18LT 4th & 7 at LT 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:23UAB 4th & 4 at LT 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.6
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00LT 4th & 2 at UAB 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−1.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−7.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:05UAB 4th & 2 at LT 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−1.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−7.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:20LT 4th & 10 at LT 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:07UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:48LT 4th & 10 at LT 42, down 6
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:28UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 36, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:20LT 4th & 3 at LT 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.2%−5.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:50UAB 4th & 13 at LT 26, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 9:15LT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:35UAB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:20UAB Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:07LT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:3964% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
63.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Bailey Hale) to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
63.6%
Dylan Hopkins run for 3 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+7
63.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
63.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
63.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Myron MitchellSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+8
63.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 8 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
63.6%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-1
63.6%
Dylan Hopkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+3
63.6%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
63.9%
Nick Vogel 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
63.8%
Aaron Allen sacked by Kristopher Moll for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 23Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
63.8%
ALLEN, Aaron pass incomplete to STANLEY, Malik (MARSHALL, TD), PENALTY UAB pass interference (MARSHALL, TD) 15 yards to the LATECH38, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
63.5%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
63.5%
Aaron Allen run for 5 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
63.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
50
+13
63.3%
Justin Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 48 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Smith) to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
63.3%
Smoke Harris run for 2 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
63.1%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-5
63.3%
Aaron Allen sacked by Alex Wright for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 40 Aaron Allen fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
63.9%
Jacob Barnes punt for 26 yds, downed at the UAB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
63.6%
Dylan Hopkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 13Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
63.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+10
63.2%
Dylan Hopkins run for 10 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
63.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
63.0%
Bobby Holly run for 7 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-3
62.7%
Justin Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 48Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+2
63.0%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Justin Henderson for 2 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
63.5%
Jacob Barnes punt for 33 yds, downed at the UAB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
63.4%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
63.3%
Dylan Hopkins run for 3 yds to the UAB 18Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+4
62.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Kendall Parham for 4 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
62.5%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 0:0637% → 36%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
62.8%
Israel Tucker run for 7 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
62.3%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
62.3%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
62.1%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Malik Stanley, broken up by TD MarshallSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+18
62.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Israel Tucker for 18 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+2
62.5%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 41
0
62.7%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 41
+5
63.4%
UAB Penalty, offside defense (Garrett Marino) to the UAB 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 36
0
62.9%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Cee Jay Powell, broken up by Dy'jonn TurnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 36
-5
64.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UAB 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
64.1%
Brady Farlow punt for 36 yds, downed at the UAB 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
62.9%
Lucious Stanley run for 3 yds to the UAB 8Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-5
62.7%
Dylan Hopkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 3Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+11
62.0%
Lucious Stanley run for 11 yds to the UAB 14Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
61.9%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 39 yds , Smoke Harris returns for no gain to the LaTch 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:4638% → 45%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
61.7%
Smoke Harris run for 7 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
61.2%
Justin Henderson run for 4 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
54.7%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 42 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 62 yds · 0:0057% → 59%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+45
57.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Austin Watkins for 45 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
60.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 12 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
60.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for no gain to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
60.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Austin Watkins for 5 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
59.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Jermaine Brown Jr.Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 5
OPP 14
0
58.6%
Kyle Greenwell pass incomplete to Hayden PittmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
56.9%
Bobby Holly run for 2 yds to the LaTch 16Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-5
57.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Kody Russey) to the LaTch 11Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+2
57.2%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+5
57.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
58.5%
Brady Farlow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:2157% → 68%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
57.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Myron MitchellSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
55.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 15 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
58.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Austin WatkinsSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
57.8%
UAB Penalty, false start (Kendall Parham) to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+10
56.0%
Dylan Hopkins run for 10 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-2
57.4%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+25
55.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Austin Watkins for 25 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
68.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1736% → 34%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.4%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Smoke Harris, broken up by Will BolerSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.7%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.6%
Aaron Allen run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
66.0%
Brady Farlow punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 0:4866% → 71%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
66.2%
UAB Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UAB 33Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+48
64.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 48 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
68.4%
Dylan Hopkins run for 6 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
68.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Myron Mitchell, broken up by Michael SamSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
67.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Gerrit PrinceSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
71.1%
Nick Vogel 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.6%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
70.1%
Justin Henderson run for 7 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:0031% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.7%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Bobby Holly for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
68.4%
Justin Henderson run for 23 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
65.8%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Griffin Hebert, broken up by Will BolerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+17
66.7%
Justin Henderson run for 17 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
64.6%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the UAB 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
64.6%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the UAB 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+2
66.1%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Malik Stanley for 2 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+5
67.5%
ALLEN, Aaron pass incomplete to POWELL, Cee Jay (TURNER, Dy'jonn), PENALTY UAB offside defense (MOFOR, Fitz) 5 yards to the UAB24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 24
0
66.9%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the UAB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 6:4572% → 90%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
71.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Collin Scott) to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
73.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 9 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+13
74.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 13 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
74.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
74.6%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+6
73.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Markus Grossman for 6 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+2
72.3%
Kyle Greenwell pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 2 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
74.6%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the LaTch 24Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
74.6%
Lucious Stanley run for no gain to the LaTch 24Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+10
73.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 10 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
74.6%
Lucious Stanley run for 12 yds to the LaTch 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.5%
Lucious Stanley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.3%
Justin Henderson run for 6 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
85.1%
Justin Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 30Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
85.7%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Smoke Harris, broken up by Dy'jonn TurnerSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
86.8%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
87.1%
Brady Farlow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18INT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:1489% → 93%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
89.1%
Lucious Stanley run for 8 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+11
89.7%
Lucious Stanley run for 11 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
89.9%
Lucious Stanley run for 4 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
90.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Austin WatkinsSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
90.2%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, (5 Yards) to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
90.2%
Lucious Stanley run for 2 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
90.7%
Dylan Hopkins run for 3 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-1
92.9%
Lucious Stanley run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
92.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass intercepted, touchback. L'Jarius Sneed return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:0412% → 32%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
88.5%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kristopher Moll) to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.9%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
87.2%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Bobby Holly for 9 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
86.6%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
86.1%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the LaTch 48Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
88.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Israel Tucker for 13 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
88.2%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Isaiah Graham, broken up by Fitzgerald MoforSimilar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
88.1%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+12
88.3%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 12 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.9%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Griffin Hebert, broken up by Will DawkinsSimilar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+17
87.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Bobby Holly for 17 yds to the UAB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
86.9%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the UAB 5Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.9%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the UAB 5Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
68.5%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.3%
Dylan Hopkins run for 2 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
83.3%
Lucious Stanley run for 4 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
82.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Kendall ParhamSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+60
82.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LATECH 19 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
76.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Israel Tucker for no gain to the LaTch 9Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+15
76.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 15 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
75.5%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 18 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
72.5%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
73.5%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
74.6%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Malik Stanley, broken up by TD MarshallSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
77.4%
Brady Farlow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2287% → 92%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
87.2%
Lucious Stanley run for 7 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+4
87.2%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
87.3%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
91.0%
Dylan Hopkins run for 5 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
91.4%
Dylan Hopkins run for no gain to the UAB 36Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
92.4%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
87.1%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Israel TuckerSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+7
87.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
87.0%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
88.0%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Smoke Harris, broken up by A.J. BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:5396% → 96%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
96.2%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the LaTch 22Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+3
96.2%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-2
96.7%
Lucious Stanley run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 8
OPP 21
-5
96.0%
UAB Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 13
OPP 26
0
95.5%
TEAM run for no gain to the LaTch 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:07
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)
-18.4
TD · Q3 4:20
Lucious Stanley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
+14.9
TD · Q2 1:35
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com