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FAU

Florida Atlantic 40 at UTSA 26

UTSA
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:42 · Matthew Hayball punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior−23.3Home team on offense−34.0Score differential−18.4Garbage-time factor−7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:38: BJ Emmons run for 32 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:01: Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 16 yds for a TD, (L. Narcisse Run For Two-point Conversion) — UTSA win probability +7.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:06: Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FAU win probability +4.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:42: Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Leroy Watson for 2 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +5.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:01: Jordan Weeks pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 24 yds for a TD, (J. Weeks Run For Two-point Conversion) — UTSA win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:11UTSA 4th & 6 at FAU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:11FAU 4th & 2 at UTSA 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:10FAU 4th & 6 at UTSA 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:10UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:38FAU 4th & 18 at UTSA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:12UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:21FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 19, up 14
    Close callPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:59UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:12FAU 4th & 10 at UTSA 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:38UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:42FAU 4th & 17 at FAU 34, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 27, down 22
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:51FAU 4th & 10 at UTSA 42, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:55UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 25, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:48UTSA 4th & 6 at FAU 36, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:49FAU 4th & 1 at UTSA 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:39FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:36FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:38FAU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:01UTSA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:06FAU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:42UTSA Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:48FAU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:01UTSA Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSA Sincere McCormickSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
8.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
8.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+17
8.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
8.1%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
0
8.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
50
0
8.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
50
0
8.1%
Lucas Dean punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:5191% → 91%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+24
9.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 24 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
9.0%
Malcolm Davidson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+32
9.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 32 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
8.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 15 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
9.0%
Malcolm Davidson 16 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 6:289% → 12%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
9.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 8 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
9.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+8
9.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
9.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
9.4%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
9.4%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
9.4%
Brenden Brady run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
9.4%
NARCISSE, L. rush right for loss of 1 yard to the FAU29, out-of-bounds (PIERRE, James), PENALTY UTSA holding (MAKA, Ahofitu) 10 yards to the FAU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+1
9.3%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 19
OPP 37
0
9.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Dywan Griffin for no gain to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 19
OPP 37
+13
9.3%
Lowell Narcisse run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
12.1%
Hunter Duplessis 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:0188% → 88%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
11.9%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
11.9%
Malcolm Davidson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+13
12.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 13 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
11.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 15 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
11.5%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
11.5%
BJ Emmons run for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+8
11.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 8 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
11.4%
BJ Emmons run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+11
11.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 11 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
11.5%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+12
11.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 12 yds Harrison Bryant fumbled, forced by Rashad Wisdom, recovered by FlAtl for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
11.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+8
12.9%
Chris Robison run for 8 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
13.1%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
12.0%
Vladimir Rivas 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.4%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
12.4%
NARCISSE, L. sideline pass incomplete to BRADY, Brenden, PENALTY FAU face mask (SOUTHALL, Mar.) 15 yards to the UTSA40, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
12.9%
Lowell Narcisse run for 1 yd to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
12.7%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-8
12.7%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Noah Jefferson for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+29
12.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 44 yds, downed at the UTSA 20 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the FlAtl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:5387% → 86%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
12.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 12 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
12.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John Raine, broken up by Jaylon HaynesSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
12.4%
ROBISON, Chris sideline pass incomplete, QB hurry by MARTEL, Andrew, PENALTY UTSA holding (MAYFIELD, Corey) 10 yards to the UTSA43, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
12.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John Mitchell, broken up by SaVion HarrisSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
12.3%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+11
12.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 11 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
12.2%
James Charles run for 10 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
12.2%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
12.2%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Deangelo Antoine, broken up by Jarrod Carter-McLinSimilar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 7
OPP 19
-11
12.4%
Chris Robison sacked by Lorenzo Dantzler and Jarrod Carter-McLin for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 18
OPP 30
+48
14.2%
Vladimir Rivas 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
14.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
14.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 4 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+28
14.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 28 yds to the FlAtl 35 Sincere McCormick fumbled, forced by Ahman Ross, recovered by FlAtl Rashad SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:5687% → 91%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
13.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 5 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
12.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+26
13.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 26 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
12.6%
Malcolm Davidson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
12.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 6 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
12.5%
Malcolm Davidson run for 16 yds to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
12.5%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
9.5%
James Charles run for 9 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2410% → 11%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
10.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
10.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 13 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
11.2%
Dywan Griffin run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-2
11.2%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-6
10.7%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Rashad Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 16
OWN 43
0
10.7%
Lucas Dean punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4390% → 90%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
10.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for no gain to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
10.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to James Charles for 7 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+2
10.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to James Charles for 2 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
10.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 38 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1511% → 10%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
10.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Carlos Strickland IISimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
10.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Carlos Strickland IISimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+3
10.3%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
10.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 53 yds, downed at the FlAtl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
9.6%
Malcolm Davidson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+6
9.6%
Malcolm Davidson run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:4890% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.9%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
9.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 23 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+28
9.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 28 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
9.0%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
9.1%
BJ Emmons run for 8 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+3
9.2%
BJ Emmons run for 3 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
9.0%
Chris Robison run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+4
9.1%
BJ Emmons run for 4 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
9.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q3 11:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
7.9%
Vladimir Rivas 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
8.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
8.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Leroy WatsonSimilar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+13
8.3%
Lowell Narcisse run for 13 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
8.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 37 Sincere McCormick fumbled, forced by Hosea Barnwell V, recovered by FlAtl Jordan HelmSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:3193% → 97%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
7.1%
BJ Emmons run for 5 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+32
2.7%
BJ Emmons run for 32 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
3.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 3 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
3.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Brenden BradySimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
3.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+36
3.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Meiko Dotson at the UTSA 13 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, kick catching interference (Dadrian Taylor) to the FlAtl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
2.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Deangelo AntoineSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+13
2.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 13 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
2.7%
James Charles run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-6
2.7%
BJ Emmons run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 17
OWN 34
0
2.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to BJ EmmonsSimilar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
2.8%
Matthew Hayball punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:013% → 11%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
3.1%
Brenden Brady run for 5 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
3.1%
Lowell Narcisse run for 6 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
3.1%
Brenden Brady run for 24 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
3.4%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+26
3.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 26 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
3.7%
Lowell Narcisse run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
10.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 16 yds for a TD, (L. Narcisse Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5593% → 99%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 8 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
7.2%
James Charles run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
6.8%
BJ Emmons run for no gain to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
6.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 13 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
6.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 8 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
6.5%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Deangelo AntoineSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
6.6%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
6.5%
CHARLES, James rush up middle for no gain to the UTSA33 (MATTERSON, B.), PENALTY UTSA face mask (MATTERSON, B.) 15 yards to the UTSA18, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
6.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 12 yds to the TexSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
6.4%
ROBISON, Chris sideline pass incomplete to ROBINSON, Br., PENALTY UTSA pass interference (McGHEE, T.) 4 yards to the UTSA2, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
2.3%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
2.3%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
2.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Dywan Griffin, broken up by Chris TooleySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
2.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Meiko Dotson at the FlAtl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
1.5%
Nick Tronti run for 18 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
1.5%
Nick Tronti run for 3 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
1.5%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Brandon Robinson, broken up by Cassius GradySimilar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-3
1.5%
Nick Tronti run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
1.7%
Matthew Hayball punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
1.7%
Brenden Brady run for 7 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+40
1.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass intercepted, touchback. Meiko Dotson return for 40 yds Meiko Dotson fumbled, recovered by TexSASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:132% → 7%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
1.6%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
1.6%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Brenden Brady for 3 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
1.6%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Joshua Cephus UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+18
1.6%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 18 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
1.8%
Brenden Brady run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+40
1.9%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 40 yds to the FlAtl 2 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Leroy Watson for 2 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:5496% → 99%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
3.8%
James Charles run for 26 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
3.5%
James Charles run for no gain to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+35
3.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 35 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.7%
BJ Emmons run for 5 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:471% → 4%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.0%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
1.0%
Brenden Brady run for no gain to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
1.0%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 9 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
1.0%
Jordan Weeks run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 1
50
+10
1.1%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 10 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
1.1%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Sheldon JonesSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
1.1%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+4
1.1%
Jordan Weeks run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+12
1.1%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 12 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
4.1%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 24 yds for a TD, (J. Weeks Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:1298% → 99%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
2.1%
Nick Tronti run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+1
2.1%
Nick Tronti run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+10
2.0%
Chauncey Mason run for 10 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+1
1.5%
Chauncey Mason run for 1 yd to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
1.4%
Chauncey Mason run for 1 yd to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-1
1.4%
Daniel Leconte run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:01
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 16 yds for a TD, (L. Narcisse Run For Two-point Conversion)
+7.1
TD · Q4 8:42
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Leroy Watson for 2 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q3 0:06
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com