View as
Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:15 · Gavin Hardison pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:10: Spencer Brown run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +4.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:38: Nick Vogel 36 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +4.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:07: Gavin Hardison pass complete to Alan Busey for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +7.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:43: Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:47: Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 40 yds for a TD Timeout UTEP, clock 05:47 (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UTEP made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 15:00UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q1 5:42UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it16.8%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%average punt
- Q1 1:54UAB 4th & 2 at UTEP 17, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snapGo for it82.5%56% to convertField goalTheir call82.2%−0.380% to makePunt80.5%−1.9average punt
- Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 46, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snapGo for it12.0%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q2 12:38UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 27, up 17Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snapGo for it88.7%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:08UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snapGo for it10.7%−0.936% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.6%average punt
- Q2 3:38UAB 4th & 11 at UTEP 18, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.924% to convertField goalTheir call90.4%79% to makePunt86.1%−4.3average punt
- Q2 3:38UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 26, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.730% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q2 0:44UAB 4th & 6 at UTEP 9, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.433% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%89% to makePunt93.0%−2.5average punt
- Q3 15:00UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 25, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snapGo for it88.7%−1.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.9%average punt
- Q3 6:15UTEP 4th & 2 at UAB 5, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%51% to convertField goal9.3%−0.892% to makePunt5.1%−5.0average punt
- Q3 3:36UTEP 4th & 25 at UTEP 34, down 23Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%−0.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%average punt
- Q4 14:10UTEP 4th & 15 at UAB 23, down 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.316% to convertField goalTheir call1.3%70% to makePunt0.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 14:10UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 31, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%average punt
- Q4 12:38UTEP 4th & 7 at UAB 38, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%37% to convertField goal1.3%−0.138% to makePunt1.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:00UTEP 4th & 4 at UAB 14, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.346% to convertField goal0.3%84% to makePunt-0.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:00UTEP 4th & 2 at UAB 2, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.148% to convertField goal0.4%94% to makePunt-0.0%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:42UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.4%97% to makeGo for two82.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:10UAB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.1%97% to makeGo for two85.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:07UTEP Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.2%97% to makeGo for two10.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:43UAB Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:47UAB Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2TD14 plays · 80 yds · 6:5484% → 84%
UTEPDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4FG6 plays · 50 yds · 2:2284% → 84%
Q1 4:16
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
84.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 7 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.9%
Kai Locksley pass intercepted Austin Watkins return for 11 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4084% → 89%
UTEPDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 1:1013% → 12%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+4
88.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jess Trussell for 4 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
88.7%
BROWN, Spencer rush for 9 yards to the UAB16, out-of-bounds (HYNSON, Adrian), PENALTY UAB holding (MITCHELL, Myron) 1 yards to the UAB8, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 10:08
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
89.2%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10FG11 plays · 56 yds · 5:4390% → 94%
Q2 9:21
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-4
90.4%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Stephen Forester for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 3:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
94.0%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Reynaldo Flores, broken up by Noah WilderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12FG8 plays · 59 yds · 1:4495% → 96%
UTEPDrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 0:375% → 14%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
94.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 16 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
94.2%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to BUSEY, Alan, PENALTY UAB pass interference (SWOOPES, K.) 15 yards to the UAB44, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+36
93.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 36 yds to the UAB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
85.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Alan Busey for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
90.3%
HOPKINS, Dylan rush for 4 yards to the UAB29, out-of-bounds (LOWE, Duron), PENALTY UAB holding (WELLS, Sidney) 10 yards to the UAB15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.3%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 51 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 2 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16DOWNS13 plays · 69 yds · 6:1911% → 9%
Q3 12:34
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+8
89.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
88.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 15 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
88.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 8 yds to the UAB 40Similar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
88.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 9 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
87.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 4 yds to the UAB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17TD5 plays · 95 yds · 2:2794% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18FG17 plays · 67 yds · 4:262% → 1%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+23
97.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Alan Busey for 23 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
97.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 16 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 15
OWN 44
-10
97.9%
Gavin Hardison sacked by Alex Wright for a loss of 10 yards to the UTEP 34Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+27
97.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 12 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, roughing passer (Kristopher Moll) to the UAB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
98.5%
Gavin Hardison sacked by Kristopher Moll and Jordan Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the UAB 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 25
0
98.7%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Keondre SwoopesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:10
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
98.8%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Justin Garrett at the UTEP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 29 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Keondre SwoopesSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
98.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Josh Fields for 9 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
50
+9
98.8%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to GARRETT, Justin (SWOOPES, K.), PENALTY UAB pass interference (SWOOPES, K.) 9 yards to the UAB41, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
98.8%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Will DawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21TD7 plays · 62 yds · 3:3399% → 100%
UTEPDrive 22DOWNS17 plays · 73 yds · 3:470% → 0%
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
100.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
50
+19
100.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 19 yds to the UAB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+10
100.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 10 yds to the UAB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
100.0%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to WOLF, Tre'shon, PENALTY UAB offside 3 yards to the UAB2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Justin Garrett, broken up by A.J. BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:07
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Alan Busey for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)
-7
TD · Q1 1:10
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q3 3:43
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
+4.1