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USM

Southern Miss 36 at UTSA 17

UTSA
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:54 · Lucas Dean punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior−23.4Home team on offense−13.1Score differential−4.7Garbage-time factor−4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:55: De'Michael Harris run for 56 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein PAT MISSED) — USM win probability +6.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:51: Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 77 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +7.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:57: Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 51 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q3 3:12: De'Michael Harris run for 33 yds for a TD Timeout UT SAN ANTONIO, clock 03:12 (Jack Abraham intercepted ) — USM win probability +8.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:45: Kevin Perkins run for 39 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +4.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 11 of 13USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:54USM 4th & 10 at USM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:34UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:19USM 4th & 7 at USM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:49UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:19USM 4th & 10 at USM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:34UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 1 at UTSA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:14USM 4th & 9 at UTSA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:14UTSA 4th & 1 at USM 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−1.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:54UTSA 4th & 8 at USM 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−5.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:54USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.8%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:50USM 4th & 1 at USM 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.9%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:55UTSA 4th & 13 at USM 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:54UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:08USM 4th & 12 at USM 32, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:12UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 21, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 4 at USM 37, up 12
    Close callPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:39UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 23, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:56USM 4th & 16 at midfield, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:08UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 11, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:54UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.5
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:20UTSA 4th & 10 at USM 10, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:31USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:19UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:55USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:51USM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:57UTSA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:45USM Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
10.4%
Lowell Narcisse run for 2 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
10.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Sheldon Jones, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-8
10.4%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Swayze Bozeman for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
10.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
10.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-3
10.8%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 38 De'Michael Harris fumbled, forced by Jaylon Haynes, recovered by SoMis Jack AbrahamSimilar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
10.9%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
10.9%
Zac Everett punt for 40 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 38 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the TexSA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
11.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 13Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+1
11.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
11.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+48
11.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 38 yds SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:4088% → 88%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
11.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 18 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
11.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 7 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+14
11.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 14 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
11.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 20 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
11.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the TexSA 2Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
12.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 75 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete, broken up by Kevin NelsonSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 10 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
12.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
12.9%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+3
13.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Kevin Perkins for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
13.0%
Zac Everett punt for 56 yds, downed at the TexSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
13.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the TexSA 3Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+13
13.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
13.6%
Lowell Narcisse run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 13Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 13
OWN 13
0
13.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+14
13.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 14 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
13.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
13.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
13.7%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
13.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 31 yds, downed at the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
15.1%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
15.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
15.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+2
15.6%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 27 , Sheldon Jones returns for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
15.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
15.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+1
15.5%
Lowell Narcisse run for 1 yd to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
15.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 50 yds, downed at the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:5384% → 82%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
16.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
16.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 12 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
16.1%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+17
16.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 17 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
15.5%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 11
50
+5
15.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 5 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
16.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+29
17.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 29 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
16.2%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
16.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for no gain to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+2
16.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 2 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
17.6%
Andrew Stein 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11FG
19 plays · 77 yds · 6:2018% → 26%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
18.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 5 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+7
18.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
18.2%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
18.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 13 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
19.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+28
18.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 28 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
19.9%
Lowell Narcisse run for 8 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 2
OPP 23
0
19.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Carlos Strickland IISimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
19.3%
Lowell Narcisse run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
18.8%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
19.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 13 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
19.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Santrell Latham) to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
19.9%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
19.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari Franklin, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
19.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
26.1%
Hunter Duplessis 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
22.3%
Jack Abraham run for 3 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
22.6%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
23.0%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
29.8%
Lowell Narcisse run for 9 yds to the SoMis 23 Lowell Narcisse fumbled, forced by Demarrio Smith, recovered by SoMis Racheem BootheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 1:5576% → 84%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
24.1%
Jack Abraham run for 7 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+3
23.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 3 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
23.7%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
24.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
24.7%
Jack Abraham run for 9 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
23.6%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
16.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 56 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
18.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 35 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
20.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-3
20.6%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Swayze Bozeman for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 13
OPP 43
0
19.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari Franklin, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
18.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 42 yds, downed at the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:5782% → 81%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
18.5%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
18.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+17
18.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 17 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
17.8%
De'Michael Harris run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-4
18.0%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 14
OWN 18
-1
18.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 2:0981% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
19.1%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+3
19.3%
Jack Abraham run for 3 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+10
19.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 10 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
18.8%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+77
11.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 77 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
13.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass intercepted Shannon Showers return for no gain to the TexSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
10.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 8 yds Quez Watkins fumbled, forced by Jahmal Sam, recovered by TexSA Brandon MattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.6%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 24 Sincere McCormick fumbled, recovered by SoMis Swayze BozemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
10.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
10.7%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Cassius Grady return for no gain to the TexSA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+18
13.5%
Lowell Narcisse run for 3 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, targeting (Shannon Showers) to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
13.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
13.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-4
13.7%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Ty Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
13.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
11.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 5 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-14
11.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 1 yd to the SoMis 40 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, UR (Trace Clopton) to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+7
12.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
12.6%
Zac Everett punt for 50 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 32 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, illegal block (Ladarian McFarland) to the TexSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 3:0713% → 26%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
13.3%
Lowell Narcisse run for 13 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
13.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+13
13.6%
Lowell Narcisse run for 13 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
14.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 7 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-5
14.3%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Josh Dunlop) to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
14.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
14.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
26.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 51 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4579% → 90%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.6%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+31
21.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 31 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
18.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 11 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
9.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 33 yds for a TD Timeout UT SAN ANTONIO, clock 03:12 (Jack Abraham intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
13.2%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Terry Whittington for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+1
12.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
12.1%
Lucas Dean punt for 48 yds, downed at the SoMis 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0390% → 90%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
10.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
9.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-1
9.5%
Jack Abraham run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+1
10.1%
Zac Everett punt for 50 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 38 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Dadrian Taylor) to the TexSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:2512% → 11%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
11.5%
Lowell Narcisse run for 4 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
11.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+6
11.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
11.6%
Lowell Narcisse run for 1 yd to the TexSA 18Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
11.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Gavin Sharp for no gain to the TexSA 18Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+5
11.2%
Lowell Narcisse run for 5 yds to the TexSA 23 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
11.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
8.0%
De'Michael Harris run for 9 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
7.5%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
7.9%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
7.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 4 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-11
8.0%
Jack Abraham sacked by Lorenzo Dantzler and DeQuarius Henry for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 16
50
0
9.2%
Zac Everett punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
8.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-7
8.5%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by D.Q. Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 17
OWN 1
+10
8.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 10 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
8.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the TexSA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 31TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:4395% → 99%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
5.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 10 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
5.3%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
1.1%
Kevin Perkins run for 39 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 32DOWNS
20 plays · 70 yds · 3:252% → 1%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
1.8%
NARCISSE, L. sideline pass complete to FRANKLIN, Z. for 7 yards to the UTSA27 (GUNN, Ernest), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (GRIFFIN, Dywan) 10 yards to the UTSA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+15
1.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 15 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
1.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Dywan Griffin, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
1.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Dywan Griffin for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+5
1.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
1.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Gavin SharpSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
1.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Leroy WatsonSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+18
1.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 18 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
1.8%
Lowell Narcisse run for 6 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+12
1.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 12 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
2.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 4 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
0.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Leroy Watson for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+11
0.7%
Brenden Brady run for 11 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Leroy WatsonSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Gavin SharpSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 1:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:57
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 51 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+12
TD · Q3 3:12
De'Michael Harris run for 33 yds for a TD Timeout UT SAN ANTONIO, clock 03:12 (Jack Abraham intercepted )
-8.6
TD · Q3 12:51
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 77 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com