Try the model
RICE

Rice 31 at Middle Tennessee 28

MTSU
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:56 · Chris Barnes punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+16.8Home team on offense−19.3Score differential−9.4Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:27: Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK) — RICE win probability +15.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:31: Aston Walter run for 34 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK) — RICE win probability +9.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:14: Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 34 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK) — RICE win probability +13.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:19: Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:22: Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 20 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +28.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 9
  1. Q1 10:50RICE 4th & 12 at MTSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:23RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 29, up 3
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:28MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:42RICE 4th & 2 at MTSU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:11MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 33, down 10
    Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:53RICE 4th & 2 at MTSU 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:31MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:56RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 44, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:22MTSU 4th & 7 at RICE 40, down 17
    Close callPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    38.9%−0.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:19RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 9, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:36MTSU 4th & 5 at RICE 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−8.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00RICE 4th & 6 at MTSU 41, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−2.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:30MTSU 4th & 6 at RICE 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:31RICE 4th & 8 at MTSU 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:24RICE 4th & 3 at MTSU 39, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.7 ptsPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.7
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:11RICE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:27RICE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:01MTSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:29MTSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:31RICE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:14RICE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:19MTSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:22MTSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds Ty Lee fumbled, forced by Tre'Shon Devones, recovered by Rice George NyakwolSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 4:0019% → 20%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
81.5%
Aston Walter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+6
81.5%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 6 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+12
81.5%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Austin Trammell for 12 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
81.5%
Juma Otoviano run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-1
81.5%
Tom Stewart sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
81.5%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
80.2%
Chris Barnes 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.1%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
80.1%
Jarrin Pierce run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
80.0%
Terelle West run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
80.1%
Ty Lee run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
80.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
80.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
79.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
79.2%
Juma Otoviano run for 7 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
79.1%
Tom Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
79.3%
Tom Stewart pass incomplete to Cameron ValentineSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
79.5%
Chris Barnes punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
78.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+7
78.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 7 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-4
78.6%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
78.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 3:3122% → 28%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
77.7%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Jordan Myers for 13 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.6%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
77.6%
Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+5
77.7%
Tom Stewart run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+2
78.0%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
72.1%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 30 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
72.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
72.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 1 yd to the MTnSt 33 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+17
72.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the MIDDLETENN 35 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chris Melton) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 4:0229% → 45%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
50
+10
70.7%
Juma Otoviano run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
70.3%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+12
70.3%
Zane Knipe run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
70.2%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+1
70.2%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+16
70.6%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 16 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-9
70.2%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 8 RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q2 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
54.8%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 3:2660% → 66%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
59.5%
DJ England-Chisolm run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
60.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+10
59.3%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to MARSHALL, Jimmy (CHAMBERLAIN, T.), PENALTY RICE holding (CHAMBERLAIN, T.) 10 yards to the MT40, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
60.4%
Terelle West run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
60.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
60.5%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to LEE, Ty, QB hurry by ALLDREDGE, B., PENALTY RICE pass interference (DEVONES, T.) 15 yards to the RICE42, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
61.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 31 yds to the Rice 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
61.4%
Terelle West run for 4 yds to the Rice 7Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
61.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the Rice 3Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
61.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty Lee MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+1
57.9%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to ANDERSON, Brad (NYAKWOL, George), PENALTY RICE holding (THORNTON, Tyrae) 1 yards to the RICE2, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
62.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
62.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
62.4%
Tom Stewart run for no gain to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
63.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
70.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 90 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:5033% → 42%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
67.4%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 6 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+34
58.1%
Aston Walter run for 34 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
60.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
60.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
59.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
59.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 45 yds , Austin Trammell returns for no gain to the Rice 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 2:5341% → 66%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
58.6%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Jordan Myers for 8 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
57.8%
Tom Stewart pass incomplete to Brad Rozner, broken up by Chris StampsSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
57.9%
Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
57.8%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 22 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
56.4%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 9 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
56.3%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
47.2%
Aston Walter run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
48.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
34.3%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 34 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:1342% → 45%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Terelle West for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 7
OWN 0
+46
41.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 31 yds to the MIDDLETENN 41 for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
44.7%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted Andrew Bird return for 6 yds to the Rice 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
37.5%
Aston Walter run for 4 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
36.9%
Aston Walter run for 4 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
37.3%
Tom Stewart pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Khalil BrooksSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
38.6%
Chris Barnes punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 54 yds · 0:0037% → 40%
Q3 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+5
37.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 5 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
37.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 11 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
37.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
39.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
37.2%
Terelle West run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+9
37.0%
Terelle West run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
39.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Terelle WestSimilar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+14
39.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 14 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
40.6%
Jayy McDonald run for 4 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-1
40.9%
Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 40Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
40.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
39.6%
Matthew Stephenson punt for 39 yds, downed at the Rice 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1672% → 73%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
28.2%
RICE Penalty, Offensive offside (Nick Leverett) to the Rice 1Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
28.2%
Aston Walter run for no gain to the Rice 1Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
28.3%
Aston Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 3Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+6
26.0%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Aston Walter for 6 yds to the Rice 9Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+2
26.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds , Ty Lee returns for 2 yds to the Rice 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1730% → 44%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
30.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 10 yds to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
31.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Tyrese Johnson for 2 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+5
31.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-2
30.9%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 28Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+21
29.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 21 yds to the Rice 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
44.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:1463% → 68%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
36.8%
Juma Otoviano run for 5 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
35.0%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
35.6%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 5 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
34.6%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Austin Trammell for 9 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
34.1%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
34.6%
Aston Walter run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
34.2%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
29.5%
Aston Walter run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+1
29.8%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Austin Trammell for 1 yd to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
32.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.9%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
29.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 16 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
31.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+12
30.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 12 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
32.8%
Terelle West run for 4 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-4
33.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive offside (Luke Harris) to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-2
32.1%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 47 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+6
30.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 6 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
30.6%
Matthew Stephenson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:1581% → 88%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
19.0%
Juma Otoviano run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 14Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+12
19.4%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 12 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
18.9%
Aston Walter run for 7 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+19
18.4%
Aston Walter run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
17.1%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 48Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-5
17.8%
Tom Stewart sacked by Tyshun Render for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 43Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+11
18.6%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Jordan Myers for 11 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
12.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 2:0310% → 46%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
10.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 7 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+26
10.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 26 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
12.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 13 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
14.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 13 yds to the Rice 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
16.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 12 yds to the Rice 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
45.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 20 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 2:5376% → 94%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
24.1%
Tom Stewart pass incomplete to Brad Rozner, broken up by Malik MancielSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
25.1%
Tom Stewart pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 4 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-5
25.1%
RICE Penalty, false start (Brad Rozner) to the Rice 30Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+24
26.9%
Aston Walter run for 24 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
20.9%
Aston Walter run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
9.6%
Aston Walter run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+1
9.4%
Aston Walter run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
5.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:22
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 20 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
+28.9
TD · Q2 11:27
Tom Stewart pass complete to Brad Rozner for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q3 4:19
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com