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LT

Louisiana Tech 10 at Marshall 31

MRSH
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2019 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Grant Wells run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense−2.2Pregame prior+12.2Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:25: Isaiah Green pass complete to Willie Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +10.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:40: Brenden Knox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:33: Isaiah Green run for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +13.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:41: Timeout LOUISIANA TECH, clock 11:41 — MRSH win probability +4.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:25: Brenden Knox run for 4 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00LT 4th & 4 at MRSH 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:04MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37MRSH 4th & 5 at LT 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37LT 4th & 10 at LT 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MRSH 4th & 5 at LT 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:29LT 4th & 4 at MRSH 24, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:29MRSH 4th & 21 at LT 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:54LT 4th & 5 at LT 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:58MRSH 4th & 5 at LT 27, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:26LT 4th & 18 at LT 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:52LT 4th & 2 at LT 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:27MRSH 4th & 2 at LT 40, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−1.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:54LT 4th & 5 at LT 13, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%−2.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:04LT 4th & 10 at MRSH 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−7.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:41LT 4th & 1 at MRSH 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−1.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−7.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:07LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:25MRSH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:40MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:33MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:25MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
66.2%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
66.2%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+5
66.2%
ALLEN, Aaron pass incomplete to HEBERT, Griffin, PENALTY MAR offside (HAMES, Channing) 5 yards to the MAR43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
66.2%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
66.2%
Brady Farlow punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
66.2%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
66.2%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 15Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-6
66.1%
Isaiah Green sacked by Ezekiel Barnett for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 9Similar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 16
OWN 9
0
66.1%
Robert LeFevre punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:3234% → 37%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
65.8%
Justin Henderson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
65.8%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
65.8%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
65.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Malik Stanley for 19 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
65.7%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 1 yd to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+4
65.7%
Justin Henderson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+16
65.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 16 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
63.0%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:3064% → 62%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
63.7%
Brenden Knox run for 11 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
63.8%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
64.0%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Armani LeviasSimilar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+21
63.7%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Broc Thompson for 6 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Michael Sam) to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
64.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 20 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
64.5%
Isaiah Green run for 5 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
64.5%
Sheldon Evans run for no gain to the LaTch 14Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
64.3%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Armani Levias, broken up by Amik RobertsonSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
62.3%
Justin Rohrwasser 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
61.6%
Justin Henderson run for 9 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
61.2%
Justin Henderson run for 8 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.2%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Justin Henderson for no gain to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
61.3%
Aaron Allen run for no gain to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
61.6%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
61.9%
Brady Farlow punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1161% → 59%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
60.8%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 12 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
61.5%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
61.8%
Xavier Gaines run for 2 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+10
61.7%
GREEN, Isaiah pass incomplete to OBIALO, Obi (ROBERTSON, Amik), PENALTY LATECH holding (SNEED, L'Jarius) 10 yards to the LATECH39, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
62.0%
Brenden Knox run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+3
61.7%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+4
59.8%
Sheldon Evans run for 4 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+1
59.3%
Grant Wells run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7MISSED FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:4143% → 44%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
57.3%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 11 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
56.5%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 26 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
56.1%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Justin HendersonSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
56.2%
Aaron Allen run for 6 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
56.4%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Malik Stanley, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
56.3%
Bailey Hale 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+38
57.2%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 38 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
59.2%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Obi Obialo, broken up by Amik RobertsonSimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-14
59.2%
Isaiah Green sacked by Milton Williams for a loss of 14 yards to the MARSHALL 48 MARSHALL Penalty, intentional grounding (Isaiah Green) to the Marsh 48Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 24
OWN 48
+3
57.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 3 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 21
OPP 49
0
56.5%
Robert LeFevre punt for 30 yds, downed at the LaTch 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
56.0%
Israel Tucker run for 13 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
55.3%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
54.9%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
55.3%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+38
56.2%
Brady Farlow punt for 38 yds , Talik Keaton returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3055% → 59%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
55.2%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
55.4%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+41
54.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 41 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
58.5%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
58.5%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
57.4%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
59.0%
Justin Rohrwasser 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:3243% → 41%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
56.8%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
56.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-14
56.3%
Aaron Allen sacked by Fermin Silva for a loss of 14 yards to the LaTch 25 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, intentional grounding (Aaron Allen) to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 18
OWN 25
+28
59.3%
Brady Farlow punt for 55 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 28 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:5061% → 70%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
60.5%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Brenden KnoxSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+34
60.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Talik Keaton for 34 yds to the LaTch 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
70.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Willie Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:3334% → 32%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
65.9%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
65.3%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+6
67.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Malik Stanley for 6 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
68.1%
Brady Farlow punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
68.0%
Brenden Knox run for 13 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
69.1%
Xavier Gaines run for 12 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
70.0%
Xavier Gaines run for 4 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
70.2%
Isaiah Green run for 4 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
69.8%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
68.7%
Robert LeFevre punt for 32 yds, downed at the LaTch 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:1831% → 30%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
69.1%
Justin Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 8 Justin Henderson fumbled, recovered by LaTch Justin HendersonSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
69.4%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+5
69.7%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 5
OWN 13
-12
69.9%
Brady Farlow run for a loss of 12 yards to the LaTch 1 Brady Farlow fumbled, recovered by LaTch Kevin MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0871% → 78%
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.7%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier Gaines, broken up by L'Jarius SneedSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.4%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17END OF HALF
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1223% → 23%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
76.7%
Aaron Allen run for 4 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
76.3%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+3
77.3%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18INT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
77.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 4 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
77.2%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
76.5%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
77.2%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+10
77.2%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 10 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
78.3%
Brenden Knox run for 9 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
78.4%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
78.5%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Obi ObialoSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
78.4%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
77.8%
Isaiah Green pass intercepted Michael Sam return for no gain to the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:5421% → 25%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
79.2%
ALLEN, Aaron pass incomplete to STANLEY, Malik, PENALTY LATECH ineligible downfield on pass (RUSSEY, Kody) 5 yards to the LATECH10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+4
79.3%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+14
79.5%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Malik Stanley for 14 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
78.8%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+11
78.7%
Justin Henderson run for 11 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.0%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
78.3%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+11
78.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Malik Stanley for 11 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
77.0%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Malik Stanley for 11 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
76.0%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+8
75.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 8 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
75.6%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
76.0%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
77.3%
Aaron Allen run for no gain to the Marsh 20Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
74.9%
Bailey Hale 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3179% → 93%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.7%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Brenden Knox for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
79.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 19 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
80.9%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
81.1%
Isaiah Green run for 6 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
81.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Brenden Knox for 1 yd to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
81.0%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+22
80.0%
Sheldon Evans run for 22 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
93.3%
Isaiah Green run for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21FUMBLE
14 plays · 16 yds · 3:5212% → 7%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
88.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 2 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
88.5%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 6 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+9
89.4%
Justin Henderson run for 9 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
89.3%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
89.2%
Justin Henderson run for 8 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
88.3%
Justin Henderson run for 7 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
87.9%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
88.7%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
87.9%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Malik Stanley, broken up by Micah AbrahamSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
92.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Malik Stanley for 9 yds to the Marsh 11Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
92.9%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the Marsh 11Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+16
93.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Marsh Tavante Beckett , return for 16 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 4:2296% → 99%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
95.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 2 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
95.6%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+15
95.5%
Isaiah Green run for 15 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
95.7%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+19
95.7%
Brenden Knox run for 19 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
95.7%
Isaiah Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 5 Isaiah Green fumbled, recovered by Marsh Isaiah GreenSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.7%
Isaiah Green run for 1 yd to the LaTch 4Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.3%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23INT
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.2%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 2 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
99.2%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Israel Tucker for 4 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+19
99.3%
Westin Elliott pass complete to Smoke Harris for 19 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.2%
ELLIOTT, Westin pass incomplete, PENALTY MAR holding 10 yards to the MAR29, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Westin Elliott pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.1%
ELLIOTT, Westin pass incomplete to HARRIS, Smoke, QB hurry by HAMES, Channing, PENALTY MAR offside (HAMES, Channing) 5 yards to the MAR24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+12
99.1%
Westin Elliott pass complete to Malik Stanley for 12 yds to the Marsh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.1%
Westin Elliott pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the Marsh 8Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
99.1%
Westin Elliott pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+30
99.2%
Westin Elliott pass intercepted Steven Gilmore return for 20 yds to the Marsh 0 MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Darius Hodge) to the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
99.5%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
99.5%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+7
99.5%
Brenden Knox run for 7 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.5%
Sheldon Evans run for 3 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
99.6%
Sheldon Evans run for 5 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+4
99.7%
Sheldon Evans run for 4 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:33
Isaiah Green run for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q2 4:25
Isaiah Green pass complete to Willie Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 0:40
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com