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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:21 · Robert LeFevre punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:20: JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Austin Trammell for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK) — RICE win probability +6.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:33: Brenden Knox run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:28: Isaiah Green pass complete to Talik Keaton for 19 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:47: Justin Rohrwasser 49 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +7.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:27: Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 27 — MRSH win probability +7.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 9:16MRSH 4th & 10 at RICE 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snapGo for it73.4%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call73.5%87% to makePunt72.8%−0.7average punt
- Q1 9:16RICE 4th & 30 at RICE 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snapGo for it26.1%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.4%average punt
- Q1 1:08MRSH 4th & 4 at RICE 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snapGo for it70.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call70.2%−0.293% to makePunt68.1%−2.2average punt
- Q2 9:33RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 47, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it32.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%−1.5average punt
- Q3 11:26RICE 4th & 8 at MRSH 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snapGo for it21.5%−0.732% to convertField goalTheir call22.3%75% to makePunt17.3%−5.0average punt
- Q3 11:26MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 38, up 10Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snapGo for it77.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.5%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:54RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snapGo for it21.3%−0.837% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.1%average punt
- Q3 2:47MRSH 4th & 4 at RICE 32, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snapGo for it80.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call78.9%−1.251% to makePunt77.6%−2.5average punt
- Q3 2:47RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 17, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it14.4%−1.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q4 15:00MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 27, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snapGo for it89.2%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.9%average punt
- Q4 13:59RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 37, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q4 12:36MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 36, up 13Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 90.8% before the snapGo for it91.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.9%−1.8average punt
- Q4 9:17RICE 4th & 6 at MRSH 25, down 13Close callWent for it · 13.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.5%−0.439% to convertField goal12.9%66% to makePunt8.1%−4.8average punt
- Q4 3:42MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 29, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.0%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q4 3:36RICE 4th & 10 at MRSH 42, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.3%30% to convertField goal5.1%−0.230% to makePunt4.2%−1.1average punt
- Q4 2:21MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 45, up 13Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.3%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:15RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 16, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.8%28% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.5%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 10:20RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.0%97% to makeGo for two36.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:33MRSH Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.8%97% to makeGo for two67.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:28MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMRSHDrive 1MISSED FG12 plays · 64 yds · 5:4481% → 78%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-8
19.1%
Isaiah Green sacked by Trey Schuman for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+38
19.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 38 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
19.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 3 yds to the Rice 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+13
19.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 13 yds to the Rice 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-3
19.1%
Isaiah Green sacked by Ikenna Enechukwu and Blaze Alldredge for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 11Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
21.8%
Justin Rohrwasser 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Adrian Bickham N/A return for no gain to the Rice 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
22.1%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Austin Trammell for 18 yds to the Rice 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
22.2%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Brad Rozner for 10 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
22.5%
JOHNSON, JoVoni pass complete to TRAMMELL, A. for 7 yards to the MAR45, out-of-bounds (JOHNSON, Nazeeh), PENALTY RICE pass interference (ROZNER, Brad) 15 yards to the RICE33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 25
OWN 33
-6
22.1%
JoVoni Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Rice 27 JoVoni Johnson fumbled,Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 31
OWN 27
-6
22.0%
JoVoni Johnson sacked by Darius Hodge for a loss of 6 yards to the Rice 21Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 37
OWN 21
+7
21.1%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to August Pitre III for 7 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 30
OWN 28
+8
21.7%
Chris Barnes punt for 41 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 8 yds to the Marsh 36 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Marsh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3FG10 plays · 67 yds · 4:3876% → 75%
RICEDrive 4TD14 plays · 66 yds · 5:4425% → 34%
Q1 1:04
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+13
24.8%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Austin Trammell for 13 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+17
26.1%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Brad Rozner for 17 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+8
27.3%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Jordan Myers for 8 yds to the Marsh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+9
27.3%
JOHNSON, JoVoni pass incomplete to PITRE III, A., PENALTY MAR pass interference (JACKSON, Chris) 9 yards to the MAR2, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.2%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Austin Trammell for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5TD3 plays · 64 yds · 0:4369% → 75%
RICEDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD14 plays · 95 yds · 6:1172% → 80%
Q2 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+14
28.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 14 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
27.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Brenden Knox for no gain to the Marsh 22Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+22
27.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 22 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
25.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Talik Keaton for 4 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
25.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for no gain to the Rice 19Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
19.8%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Talik Keaton for 19 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.7%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Austin Trammell for 2 yds to the Rice 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9MISSED FG10 plays · 55 yds · 3:3420% → 20%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
20.3%
JOHNSON, JoVoni pass incomplete to PITRE III, A., PENALTY MAR personal foul (COUCH, Marquis) 15 yards to the RICE42, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
22.9%
JoVoni Johnson pass incomplete to Brad Rozner, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
21.9%
JoVoni Johnson pass incomplete to Brad Rozner, broken up by Steven GilmoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
RICEDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
19.9%
JoVoni Johnson pass incomplete to Brad Rozner, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-2
20.2%
Tom Stewart sacked by Koby Cumberlander for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 41 RICE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
19.2%
Adam Nunez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12FG12 plays · 47 yds · 4:3680% → 88%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
20.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Broc Thompson for 18 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+6
19.2%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 6 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
18.8%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Broc Thompson for 7 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
18.7%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Willie Johnson, broken up by Kirk LockhartSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
18.9%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Armani Levias, broken up by Treshawn ChamberlainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13PUNT7 plays · -8 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
15.3%
JOHNSON, JoVoni rush for 1 yard to the RICE26 (BURTON, Sam;CUMBERLANDER, K), PENALTY RICE personal foul (GARCIA, Cole) 12 yards to the RICE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 27
OWN 8
0
15.0%
JoVoni Johnson pass incomplete to Brad Rozner, broken up by Kereon MerrellSimilar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 27
OWN 8
+9
14.4%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 9 yds to the Rice 17Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
14.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 51 yds , Talik Keaton returns for no gain to the Marsh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4789% → 89%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-9
10.5%
Isaiah Green sacked by Blaze Alldredge and Elijah Garcia for a loss of 9 yards to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
11.1%
Robert LeFevre punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 32 , Austin Trammell returns for no gain to the Rice 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 13:59
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
13.7%
Chris Barnes punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
8.8%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Sheldon Evans for 4 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
MRSHDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4595% → 96%
Q4 3:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
4.2%
Robert LeFevre punt for 32 yds , Austin Trammell returns for 4 yds to the Rice 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19DOWNS5 plays · 15 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
4.8%
MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Robert LeFevre) to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5797% → 97%
Q4 2:21
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
2.8%
Robert LeFevre punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
MRSHDrive 22END OF GAME5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+7
1.9%
RICE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (JaVante Hubbard) to the Rice 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:27
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 27
-7.5
FG · Q3 2:47
Justin Rohrwasser 49 yd FG GOOD
-7.3
TD · Q2 10:20
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Austin Trammell for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Barnes KICK)
+6.9