Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 20 at Rice 6

RICE
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Rice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:59 · Zac Everett punt for 42 yds , Austin Trammell returns for 5 yds to the Rice 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior−12.2Home team on offense−9.8Garbage-time factor−4.1Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:35: Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +5.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:59: Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Barnes PAT MISSED) — RICE win probability +10.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:03: Wiley Green pass incomplete to Jordan Myers — RICE win probability +9.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49: Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond Adams — USM win probability +8.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:07: Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SoMis 12 — USM win probability +6.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 9 of 9USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 17 at USM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:42RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34USM 4th & 1 at USM 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:47RICE 4th & 6 at USM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:19USM 4th & 8 at USM 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00RICE 4th & 12 at RICE 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:47USM 4th & 1 at RICE 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:53USM 4th & 6 at RICE 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:53RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:25RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:32USM 4th & 6 at RICE 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−6.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:59USM 4th & 12 at USM 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−3.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:04RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:45USM 4th & 6 at RICE 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−8.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:02RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:42USM 4th & 25 at USM 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−7.8
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:50RICE 4th & 19 at RICE 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−3.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:35USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:59RICE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:32USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for no gain to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
19.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 15 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
19.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+1
19.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+2
19.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
19.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
19.7%
Zac Everett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
20.9%
Charlie Booker run for 2 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
20.9%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Shannon ShowersSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+8
20.8%
Wiley Green pass complete to Robert French for 8 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
21.0%
Charlie Booker run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 2
50
0
21.1%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Brad Rozner, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 2
50
+7
21.0%
Charlie Booker run for 7 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
21.1%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin TrammellSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
21.1%
Charlie Booker run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-7
21.0%
Wiley Green sacked by Jacques Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 49Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
20.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
22.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 1 yd to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+5
22.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 5 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+3
23.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 3 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+8
23.1%
Zac Everett punt for 35 yds , Austin Trammell returns for 8 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
24.6%
Charlie Booker run for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
24.6%
JoVoni Johnson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
24.5%
Charlie Booker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
24.7%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Brad Rozner, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
24.7%
Charlie Booker run for no gain to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+4
24.4%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 4 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+2
24.1%
Wiley Green run for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
25.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 6 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+1
25.0%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+4
25.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 4 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
25.0%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
24.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
25.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
25.9%
Zac Everett punt for 46 yds, downed at the Rice 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1927% → 27%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
27.0%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 2 yds to the Rice 15Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
27.0%
Wiley Green run for no gain to the Rice 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-5
27.2%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin Trammell RICE Penalty, IF (Wiley Green) to the Rice 10Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
26.9%
Chris Barnes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:5474% → 73%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
50
+5
25.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 5 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
25.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
26.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 3 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
25.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 5 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+15
25.4%
De'Michael Harris run for 15 yds to the Rice 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
25.4%
De'Michael Harris run for 5 yds to the Rice 15Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
25.4%
Jack Abraham run for 4 yds to the Rice 11Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
25.8%
De'Michael Harris run for no gain to the Rice 11Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
26.4%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the Rice 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
25.4%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the Rice 8Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
25.4%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the Rice 6Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
25.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to De'Michael HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
27.1%
Andrew Stein 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
28.0%
RICE Penalty, IM (Justin Gooseberry) to the Rice 15Similar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+2
27.9%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the Rice 17Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+2
27.8%
JoVoni Johnson run for 2 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-3
27.1%
Wiley Green sacked by Terry Whittington for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 16Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
26.8%
Chris Barnes punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:3773% → 80%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
27.4%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
27.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 6 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+11
26.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
50
-2
26.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+11
26.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 11 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
26.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+5
27.5%
RICE Penalty, Defensive offside (Elijah Garcia) to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
26.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+29
25.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 29 yds to the Rice 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
25.6%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the Rice 2Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 3:1021% → 19%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.4%
Charlie Booker run for 3 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
21.6%
Wiley Green run for no gain to the Rice 28Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
20.8%
Wiley Green pass complete to Jordan Myers for 9 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
22.6%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 10 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
23.4%
Wiley Green pass complete to Brad Rozner for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
50
0
23.7%
Wiley Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 7
50
-7
23.0%
Wiley Green sacked by Jacques Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
19.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 56 yds, downed at the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
21.2%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.5%
Charlie Booker run for no gain to the Rice 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Brad RoznerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
19.6%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin TrammellSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.2%
Chris Barnes punt for 41 yds , Jaylond Adams returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:2480% → 83%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
20.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
20.1%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+12
20.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
20.1%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+31
20.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 31 yds to the Rice 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
19.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 2 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+1
19.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 1 yd to the Rice 18Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+1
20.1%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the Rice 17Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
16.6%
Andrew Stein 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:3319% → 32%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
19.1%
Wiley Green run for a loss of 8 yards to the Rice 22Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+4
18.5%
Wiley Green pass complete to Jordan Myers for 4 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+27
17.8%
Wiley Green pass complete to Brad Rozner for 12 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Jacques Turner) to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
20.2%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Brad RoznerSimilar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
20.0%
Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+14
19.8%
Wiley Green pass complete to Brad Rozner for 14 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
21.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rachuan Mitchell) to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
32.4%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Barnes PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
23.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 5 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+5
22.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 5 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
22.9%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
24.3%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
24.8%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+5
25.6%
Zac Everett punt for 42 yds , Austin Trammell returns for 5 yds to the Rice 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
27.1%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 9 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
29.4%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Brad RoznerSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
28.7%
Charlie Booker run for 3 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
28.8%
Wiley Green pass complete to Brad Rozner for 4 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
29.5%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Brad RoznerSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-4
28.0%
Wiley Green sacked by Jacques Turner and Racheem Boothe for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 41Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
25.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.8%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Naeem Smith return for no gain to the SoMis 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:0334% → 32%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
33.7%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Jordan MyersSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
33.5%
Wiley Green pass complete to Brad Rozner for 12 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
33.7%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
31.8%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Jordan MyersSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+14
29.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ty Williams) to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
31.8%
Wiley Green pass intercepted, touchback. Ky'el Hemby return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:0477% → 80%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
23.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+29
24.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 29 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
20.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 16 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
19.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+15
19.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 15 yds to the Rice 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
19.6%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 15Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+1
19.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the Rice 14Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+9
20.5%
Kevin Perkins run for 9 yds to the Rice 5Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-5
22.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Rice 10Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
20.5%
Andrew Stein 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4325% → 19%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.9%
Evan Marshman run for no gain to the Rice 20Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
24.8%
Evan Marshman pass incomplete to Brad Rozner, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
19.5%
Evan Marshman pass incomplete to Juma OtovianoSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
18.5%
Chris Barnes punt for 61 yds, downed at the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:0082% → 79%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
18.0%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-14
18.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, intentional grounding (Jack Abraham) to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 25
OWN 4
0
19.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 25
OWN 4
+58
20.6%
Zac Everett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 47 RICE Penalty, personal foul (Tyrae Thornton) to the Rice 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
22.9%
Evan Marshman run for 3 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+14
24.3%
Evan Marshman pass complete to Austin Trammell for 14 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
26.3%
Evan Marshman sacked by Racheem Boothe for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 13
OPP 48
-3
24.0%
Evan Marshman sacked by Terry Whittington for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 49Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 16
OWN 49
-3
21.3%
Evan Marshman sacked by D.Q. Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 46Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
19.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:3587% → 99%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
13.1%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
13.4%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Antonio MonteroSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+14
14.4%
Jack Abraham run for 14 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
12.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 17 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
11.5%
Kevin Perkins run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
11.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 3
50
+13
4.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 13 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
4.5%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 38Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+38
1.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 38 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
2.2%
Evan Marshman pass complete to Jake Bailey for 13 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
2.3%
Evan Marshman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
2.3%
Evan Marshman sacked by Jacques Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:59
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Barnes PAT MISSED)
+10.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:03
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Jordan Myers
+9.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond Adams
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com