2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Justin Rohrwasser 53 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:14: Gaej Walker run for 33 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +8.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:34: Justin Rohrwasser 31 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +6.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:45: Ty Storey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cory Munson PAT MISSED) — WKU win probability +7.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:19: Gaej Walker run for 16 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +29.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Justin Rohrwasser 53 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +34.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 4:07WKU 4th & 7 at MRSH 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snapGo for it30.6%−0.434% to convertField goalTheir call31.1%84% to makePunt27.2%−3.9average punt
- Q1 4:07MRSH 4th & 2 at WKU 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.4%57% to convertField goal69.5%−0.951% to makePunt68.9%−1.5average punt
- Q2 13:30MRSH 4th & 11 at WKU 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snapGo for it72.6%−0.826% to convertField goalTheir call73.4%58% to makePunt69.4%−4.0average punt
- Q2 13:30WKU 4th & 15 at MRSH 35, down 17Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snapGo for it22.9%−1.117% to convertField goal24.0%45% to makePuntTheir call23.2%−0.8average punt
- Q2 8:45MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 27, up 17Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snapGo for it81.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:34MRSH 4th & 10 at WKU 14, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snapGo for it73.5%−1.626% to convertField goalTheir call75.1%84% to makePunt69.3%−5.8average punt
- Q3 15:00MRSH 4th & 10 at WKU 38, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snapGo for it80.4%−0.230% to convertField goal80.2%−0.438% to makePuntTheir call80.6%average punt
- Q3 10:20WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 28, down 13Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it17.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 6:23MRSH 4th & 3 at WKU 26, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snapGo for it85.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call85.1%−0.864% to makePunt79.0%−6.9average punt
- Q3 0:45MRSH 4th & 6 at WKU 41, up 10Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snapGo for it84.1%40% to convertField goal83.0%−1.032% to makePuntTheir call83.4%−0.7average punt
- Q4 12:10WKU 4th & 9 at MRSH 9, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snapGo for it14.8%−0.425% to convertField goalTheir call15.2%89% to makePunt8.4%−6.8average punt
- Q4 12:10MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snapGo for it82.9%−1.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.4%average punt
- Q4 6:19MRSH 4th & 12 at MRSH 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it51.0%−7.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.9%average punt
- Q4 1:34WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 40, tiedClose callPunted · 48.3% before the snapGo for it45.8%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:00MRSH 4th & 4 at WKU 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snapGo for it58.4%−8.948% to convertField goalTheir call67.3%42% to makePunt56.2%−11.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 10:42MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.1%97% to makeGo for two63.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:56MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.6%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:14WKU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.5%97% to makeGo for two25.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:45WKU Touchdown, down 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call17.2%97% to makeGo for two17.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:19WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call40.7%−0.297% to makeGo for two40.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1INT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
60.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 5 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
60.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 10 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
60.9%
Jacquez Sloan pass intercepted Kereon Merrell return for 9 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2TD6 plays · 58 yds · 2:5461% → 63%
WKUDrive 3FUMBLE6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 10:42
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+13
62.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 13 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-8
61.9%
Ty Storey sacked by Marquis Couch for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 44 Ty Storey fumbled, recovered by Marsh Kereon Merrell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4TD3 plays · 56 yds · 1:1864% → 68%
Q1 8:14
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+54
63.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Broc Thompson for 54 yds to the WKent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5MISSED FG8 plays · 43 yds · 2:4934% → 32%
MRSHDrive 6FG12 plays · 51 yds · 5:3769% → 76%
Q1 4:07
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+15
69.6%
GREEN, Isaiah pass incomplete to GAINES, Xavier, PENALTY WKU pass interference (DARDEN, T.) 15 yards to the WKU40, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 29
0
72.4%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier Gaines, broken up by Antwon KincadeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
75.2%
KeShawn McClendon run for 24 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
74.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 3 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+8
74.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 8 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
74.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 33Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 13
OPP 33
-2
75.3%
Ty Storey sacked by Tyler Brown and Omari Cobb for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
WKUDrive 9TD7 plays · 61 yds · 2:3421% → 31%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
78.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 10 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
78.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 9 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
78.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 8 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10FG11 plays · 61 yds · 3:4072% → 81%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.9%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 3 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
71.9%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Devin Miller for 16 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
73.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for no gain to the WKent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11INT8 plays · 34 yds · 0:3321% → 23%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
79.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Gaej Walker for 5 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
78.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 10 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
78.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 4 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+1
76.8%
Ty Storey pass intercepted Naquan Renalds return for 1 yd to the Marsh 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
80.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Broc Thompson for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
81.7%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Devin Miller, broken up by Ta'Corian DardenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-5
81.2%
KNOX, Brenden rush for 4 yards to the WKU29 (KINCADE, A.;MALONE, D.), PENALTY MAR illegal formation 5 yards to the WKU38, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0819% → 18%
Q3 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
81.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 7 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+8
82.0%
John Haggerty punt for 53 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 8 yds to the Marsh 36 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (Naquan Renalds) to the Marsh 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14FG10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4184% → 90%
Q3 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+8
83.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Corey Gammage for 8 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+13
83.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 13 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+15
84.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Devon Key) to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
84.8%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Corey Gammage for 12 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 13
OPP 36
0
84.4%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Willie Johnson, broken up by Omari AlexanderSimilar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+10
83.8%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 10 yds to the WKent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3814% → 24%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 4 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
84.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 9 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
84.3%
Ty Storey sacked by Marquis Couch for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 34 Ty Storey fumbled, recovered by WKent Ty Storey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+30
86.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 30 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
83.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 6 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+15
81.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 15 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
81.9%
WALKER, G. rush for loss of 3 yards to the MAR18 (COUCH, Marquis;BECKETT, T.), PENALTY MAR offside (CUMBERLANDER, K) 5 yards to the MAR10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 5
OPP 10
+8
81.9%
STOREY, T. pass incomplete to JACKSON, L. (JACKSON, Chris), PENALTY MAR pass interference (JACKSON, Chris) 8 yards to the MAR2, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
81.9%
Ty Storey sacked by Marquis Couch for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 9Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+10
83.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Joshua Simon for 10 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
82.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 2 yds to the Marsh 2Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
83.3%
STOREY, T. pass incomplete to JACKSON, L., PENALTY MAR pass interference (JACKSON, Chris) 1 yards to the MAR1, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
84.9%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Joey Fields for 4 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
84.0%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier Gaines, broken up by Omari AlexanderSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+3
82.9%
Robert LeFevre punt for 27 yds , Roger Cray returns for 3 yds to the WKent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FG10 plays · 74 yds · 2:5017% → 22%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+22
83.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 22 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
81.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 13 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
79.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 8 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.9%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Steven GilmoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
WKUDrive 19TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0920% → 57%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
80.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 12 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
78.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 30Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+29
76.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 29 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
72.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 2 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0057% → 54%
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.9%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 9 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
59.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 7 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-4
61.3%
Isaiah Green sacked by Jalen Madden for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 7
OWN 48
-5
55.8%
LEFEVRE, Robert punt 51 yards to the WKU1, downed, PENALTY MAR illegal participation 5 yards to the MAR43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 12
OWN 43
+14
53.9%
Robert LeFevre punt for 36 yds , Roger Cray returns for 14 yds to the WKent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1553% → 51%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
46.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 4 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
43.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 4 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-3
43.7%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 40 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+9
48.7%
John Haggerty punt for 56 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 9 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22FG14 plays · 51 yds · 1:2155% → 94%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
55.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 3 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
56.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Broc Thompson for 12 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
60.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 4 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
61.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 5 yds to the WKent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Justin Rohrwasser 53 yd FG GOOD
+34.7
TD · Q4 6:19
Gaej Walker run for 16 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
-29.8
TD · Q2 4:14
Gaej Walker run for 33 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
-8.7