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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 30 at North Texas 33

UNT
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:18 · Alvin Kenworthy punt for 53 yds, downed at the MTnSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+3.1Home team on offense+17.1Garbage-time factor+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score differential+3.2Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:39: Asher O'Hara run for 12 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:10: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Zack Dobson for 8 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +26.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:16: Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 16 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +21.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:28: Chase Cunningham run for 6 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +47.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Ethan Mooney 22 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +22.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MTSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 5:20MTSU 4th & 9 at UNT 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:20UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:08MTSU 4th & 5 at UNT 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:08UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:28UNT 4th & 2 at MTSU 9, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%−1.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−7.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:42MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:42MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MTSU 4th & 8 at UNT 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:46UNT 4th & 2 at MTSU 9, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−1.0
    89% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−7.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:11MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:35MTSU 4th & 11 at UNT 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:40UNT 4th & 9 at MTSU 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−11.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:40MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:16UNT 4th & 10 at MTSU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−11.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:16MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:18UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:25MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:51MTSU 4th & 6 at UNT 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−3.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−6.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:27UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:39MTSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:10MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:16UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:28MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 4:3374% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
74.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
74.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael Lawrence, broken up by Khalil BrooksSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+7
74.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 7 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
74.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 23 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
74.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 6 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
74.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deion Hair-GriffinSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+4
74.3%
Loren Easly run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
74.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+2
74.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+21
74.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 21 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
73.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 7 yds to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.0%
Mason Fine run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:0726% → 27%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
74.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
74.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for 7 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
74.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 2 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
74.2%
Brad Anderson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
74.3%
Asher O'Hara sacked by KD Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+2
74.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+19
74.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 19 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
74.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+25
74.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 25 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
73.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
73.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the NoTex 10Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
74.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
72.9%
Crews Holt 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+21
73.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 21 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
73.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Manase Mose) to the NoTex 22Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+3
73.2%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+5
73.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive offside (Tyshun Render) to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
73.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
72.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Austin OgunmakinSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
72.6%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
73.2%
Loren Easly run for 1 yd to the NoTex 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:0527% → 30%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
73.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+17
72.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 17 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
71.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 12 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
71.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cam Johnson) to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
71.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 7 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+6
71.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
71.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
70.0%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
70.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Khairi MuhammadSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
70.4%
Crews Holt 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
71.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 22Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
71.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
70.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael Lawrence, broken up by Reed BlankenshipSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+1
70.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 37 yds , Ty Lee returns for 1 yd to the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:0030% → 41%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
70.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 7 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
69.6%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
69.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
50
+8
69.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 8 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+20
69.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for 20 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
68.5%
Zack Dobson run for 10 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
59.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 12 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FG
12 plays · 79 yds · 5:1162% → 64%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
62.0%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 14Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+9
61.8%
Loren Easly run for 9 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+9
61.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 9 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
62.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Loren Easly for 24 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
64.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 9 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
65.3%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
65.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 15 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
65.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
65.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 4 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+4
64.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 4 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
63.7%
Ethan Mooney 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4638% → 28%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.8%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
61.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
62.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+20
72.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt blocked by DeShawn Gaddie blocked by DeShawn Gaddie Dominique Harrison return for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
70.3%
Brad Anderson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
70.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy Marshall, broken up by Makyle SandersSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
72.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 4 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
71.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.6%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Chris Stamps return for no gain to the NoTex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:1233% → 33%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
66.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+3
66.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 3 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
66.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
66.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for 17 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
67.3%
Zack Dobson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
67.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
69.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Khairi MuhammadSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
67.1%
Crews Holt 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
68.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
67.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Zack DobsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
68.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-5
69.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Decorian Patterson) to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+6
70.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 16 , Jaelon Darden returns for 6 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
70.1%
Loren Easly run for 7 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+18
70.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 18 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
71.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 14 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
72.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+24
72.8%
Loren Easly run for 24 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
73.4%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
73.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 9 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-1
72.4%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 2
OPP 9
0
71.0%
Loren Easly run for no gain to the MTnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
68.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Nick HarveySimilar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
69.1%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+3
69.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
70.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
71.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 8 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+30
72.2%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Jovante Moffatt return for 30 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0035% → 31%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
64.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
64.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
66.5%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
69.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:5369% → 74%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+34
68.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 34 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
72.2%
Loren Easly run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
73.0%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
73.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Reed Blankenship) to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
73.0%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+10
73.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 10 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-6
73.0%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 22 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTex Thomas Preston IIISimilar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+7
72.1%
Nic Smith run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
71.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
74.1%
Ethan Mooney 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
71.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+11
73.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 47 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 11 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:5874% → 85%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
74.2%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
75.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
50
+17
76.6%
Loren Easly run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
77.7%
Nic Smith run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
77.7%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
77.7%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-2
77.9%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
76.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
84.7%
Ethan Mooney 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0621% → 49%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
79.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 13 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
78.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 16 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+37
75.8%
Terelle West run for 37 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
73.6%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the NoTex 8Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
50.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Zack Dobson for 8 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5463% → 91%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin Smith, broken up by Kylan StriblingSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.8%
Loren Easly run for 6 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
62.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
64.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 25 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
68.1%
Loren Easly run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-2
69.8%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+9
67.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 9 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
69.8%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+10
69.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 10 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
69.8%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
90.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 16 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jimmy Marshall, broken up by Nick HarveySimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
84.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Zack DobsonSimilar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
85.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 48 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 1 yd to the NoTex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
90.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 3 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
90.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
89.6%
Loren Easly run for no gain to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
89.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 53 yds, downed at the MTnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24INT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
88.3%
Terelle West run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+10
88.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 10 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+6
87.7%
Zack Dobson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
87.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
88.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 9 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
85.7%
Zack Dobson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
86.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+8
87.4%
Chase Cunningham run for 8 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-5
86.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+39
88.1%
Chase Cunningham pass intercepted Taylor Robinson return for 39 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
96.1%
Loren Easly run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 21 Loren Easly fumbled, forced by DQ Thomas, recovered by MTnSt Chris MeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:149% → 58%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
90.8%
Zack Dobson run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+38
89.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 38 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
83.7%
Terelle West run for 1 yd to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+3
84.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Terelle West for 3 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
87.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Nick HarveySimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+18
89.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 18 yds to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.6%
Chase Cunningham run for 6 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:2865% → 96%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
65.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 11 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
68.3%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+28
65.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 28 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+22
95.6%
Ethan Mooney 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:28
Chase Cunningham run for 6 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
-47.8
TD · Q4 12:10
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Zack Dobson for 8 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
-26.5
FG · Q4 0:00
Ethan Mooney 22 yd FG GOOD
+22.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com