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USM

Southern Miss 30 at Louisiana Tech 45

LT
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.4LT 87.5%Andrew Stein 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 30 - HOME 38 · Q4 3:36
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:36 · Andrew Stein 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense+15.8Pregame prior−0.5Score differential+4.5Garbage-time factor+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:39: Justin Henderson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +9.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:28: Jack Abraham run for 37 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +5.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:56: Justin Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +15.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:02: J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +21.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:28: Bobby Holly run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +17.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 14:47LT 4th & 8 at USM 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:34USM 4th & 1 at LT 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:14LT 4th & 8 at USM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:32USM 4th & 10 at LT 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−5.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:24USM 4th & 15 at LT 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:36USM 4th & 12 at USM 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−2.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:45LT 4th & 11 at USM 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:04USM 4th & 15 at USM 26, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 4.6 ptsWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%−4.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00LT 4th & 1 at USM 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−5.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−19.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:02LT 4th & 1 at USM 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−5.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−20.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:36USM 4th & 4 at LT 24, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:03LT 4th & 3 at USM 39, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:47USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:48USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:04LT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:39LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:28USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:56LT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:02LT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:28LT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:27LT Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.7%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
41.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 21 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
41.7%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 9
50
+1
41.7%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
41.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:47
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
41.7%
Brady Farlow punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
13 plays · 95 yds · 5:4658% → 63%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
41.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 4 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+19
41.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 19 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
41.5%
Jaylond Adams run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
41.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+10
41.5%
ABRAHAM, Jack pass incomplete to WATKINS, Quez, PENALTY LATECH holding (SNEED, L'Jarius) 10 yards to the USM44, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
41.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 24 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
41.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 7 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-2
41.3%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 27Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+4
41.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 4 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
41.5%
Jack Abraham run for 3 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
41.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
41.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 5 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
37.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Ray Ladner for 15 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
17 plays · 86 yds · 6:4438% → 42%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
38.3%
Justin Henderson run for 11 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.3%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the LaTch 25Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
38.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 15 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
38.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 16 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
39.1%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-3
39.1%
J'Mar Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+12
38.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 12 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
38.8%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
38.7%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to TOUSSANT, Wayne, PENALTY USM holding (SHOWERS, S.) 10 yards to the USM20, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
38.8%
DeAndre Marcus run for 6 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
38.8%
DeAndre Marcus run for 3 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
38.5%
DeAndre Marcus run for 2 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
38.8%
J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 8Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
38.8%
J'Mar Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 5 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
40.0%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Amik Robertson return for 19 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
49.3%
Justin Henderson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:1154% → 62%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
45.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+12
45.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 12 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
45.4%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
45.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to De'Michael Harris, broken up by Amik RobertsonSimilar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+15
46.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
44.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 9 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+7
44.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 7 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
44.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
44.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 3 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+37
38.1%
Jack Abraham run for 37 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:1442% → 45%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
41.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 20 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
43.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Wayne ToussantSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
43.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 2 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
42.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Justin HendersonSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
44.9%
Bailey Hale 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:4257% → 64%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.5%
Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
42.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 16 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
42.0%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+13
42.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 13 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
40.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 31 yds to the LaTch 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
40.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-4
40.3%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 11Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
40.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
36.5%
Andrew Stein 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
38.3%
DeAndre Marcus run for 3 yds to the LaTch 24 DeAndre Marcus fumbled, forced by Shannon Showers, recovered by SoMis Swayze BozemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FG
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:5566% → 66%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
34.5%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-10
34.5%
Jack Abraham sacked by Ka'Derrion Mason for a loss of 10 yards to the LaTch 30 Jack Abraham fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 16
OPP 30
-5
36.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 21
OPP 35
+6
36.0%
Jack Abraham run for 6 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+46
34.2%
Andrew Stein 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 1:2834% → 50%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-7
33.7%
J'Mar Smith sacked by D.Q. Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 3Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 17
OWN 3
+9
33.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 9 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+17
31.0%
J'Mar Smith run for 17 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+32
32.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 32 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+37
34.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 37 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.7%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
43.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
44.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14INT
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:0044% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
43.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 26 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
47.2%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
47.4%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Rachuan Mitchell return for no gain to the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
42.2%
Kevin Perkins run for 5 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+18
42.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 18 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
40.4%
Darius Maberry run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+11
41.9%
Jack Abraham run for 11 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
40.2%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
39.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 15
OWN 43
-4
41.2%
Darius Maberry run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 19
OWN 39
0
41.4%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Courtney WallaceSimilar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+7
42.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 7 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
43.6%
Zac Everett punt for 50 yds, downed at the LaTch 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 60 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
42.6%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds to the LaTch 9Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+56
42.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 56 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
49.1%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+2
45.7%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
46.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Wayne ToussantSimilar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
42.7%
Brady Farlow punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0059% → 56%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
41.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
41.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+12
43.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 12 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
40.5%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-15
40.9%
ABRAHAM, Jack pass complete to ADAMS, Jaylond for 12 yards to the USM44 (TAYLOR, Connor), PENALTY USM face mask (DORBECK, Drake) 15 yards to the USM17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 24
OWN 17
-4
41.8%
Jack Abraham sacked by Ka'Derrion Mason for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 28
OWN 13
+13
43.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 13 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 15
OWN 26
+10
44.2%
Zac Everett run for 10 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 36 yds · 5:0148% → 69%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
48.1%
J'Mar Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+18
50.4%
Justin Henderson run for 18 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
50.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Griffin Hebert, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
50.4%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+4
47.8%
Justin Henderson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
45.5%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
50.6%
Justin Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
50.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Bobby Holly for 4 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
47.8%
J'Mar Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.1%
J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19INT
10 plays · 70 yds · 0:0035% → 43%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
64.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 14 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
62.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 23 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
59.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 8 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
57.5%
ABRAHAM, Jack pass incomplete to JONES, Tim, PENALTY LATECH offside (BAKER, Willie) 5 yards to the LATECH10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
56.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (TEAM) to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
56.8%
ABRAHAM, Jack pass incomplete to ADAMS, Jaylond, PENALTY LATECH pass interference (SNEED, L'Jarius) 8 yards to the LATECH2, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
56.8%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 5Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.8%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted, touchback. Amik Robertson return for no gainSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+20
56.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 20 yds to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:5569% → 92%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+70
68.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 70 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
74.1%
J'Mar Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
74.1%
J'Mar Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 5 J'Mar Smith fumbled, recovered by LaTch J'Mar SmithSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
72.5%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to HEBERT, Griffin, PENALTY USM pass interference (THOMAS, DQ) 3 yards to the USM2, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.2%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.1%
Bobby Holly run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 2:529% → 13%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
91.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Trevor TerrySimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
91.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 7 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+8
90.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 8 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
89.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 8 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
89.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Kevin Perkins for 1 yd to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+22
89.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 22 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
88.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 6 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
88.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
87.5%
Andrew Stein 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:3393% → 95%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
93.3%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
93.2%
Justin Henderson run for 15 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.6%
J'Mar Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
95.1%
Justin Henderson run for 7 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
95.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
95.2%
Brady Farlow punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23INT TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:246% → 2%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond Adams, broken up by Amik RobertsonSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
93.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Kevin Perkins for 14 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+30
97.6%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted for a TD Ezekiel Barnett return for 30 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24INT
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+27
97.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 27 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.6%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Amik Robertson return for no gain to the LaTch 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:02
J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)
+21.3
TD · Q4 6:28
Bobby Holly run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)
+17.9
TD · Q2 0:56
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com