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UNT

North Texas 27 at Southern Miss 45

USM
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:06 · Alvin Kenworthy punt for 38 yds , Quez Watkins returns for no gain to the SoMis 25 Quez Watkins fumbled, recovered by SoMis Quez Watkins SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Malik Shorts) to the SoMis 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Home team on offense+12.2Pregame prior+3.0Score differential+4.6Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:29: Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 53 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +8.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:30: Jack Abraham pass complete to Ray Ladner for 12 yds for a TD, (Jack Abraham pass to Jaylond Adams for Two-Point Conversion) — USM win probability +15.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:20: Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney PAT MISSED) — UNT win probability +7.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:44: Jack Abraham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +8.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:53: Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +11.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:55USM 4th & 17 at UNT 34, down 1
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:51UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53USM 4th & 9 at USM 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:53UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 28, up 1
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:53USM 4th & 1 at UNT 45, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−2.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:29USM 4th & 12 at USM 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:15UNT 4th & 10 at USM 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:06USM 4th & 3 at UNT 18, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%−0.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−8.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:06UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 6 at USM 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:31UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 27, down 18
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:34UNT 4th & 6 at USM 20, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:24USM 4th & 7 at UNT 48, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:37USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:55UNT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:33USM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:29UNT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:30USM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:20UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:44USM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:53USM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:02USM Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:34UNT Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2359% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
58.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+16
58.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 16 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
58.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+59
59.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 59 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:3441% → 41%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
50
+5
59.1%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+45
58.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 45 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
58.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+7
58.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 7 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
58.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 4 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+12
59.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 12 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
59.1%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+3
59.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 3 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+17
59.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 17 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
59.1%
De'Michael Harris run for 5 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-12
59.1%
Jack Abraham run for a loss of 12 yards to the NoTex 34 Jack Abraham fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jack AbrahamSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 17
OPP 34
0
58.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 17
OPP 34
0
58.7%
Zac Everett punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
58.9%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+8
58.9%
Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
58.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 9 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
58.6%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
58.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
58.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
58.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre TorreySimilar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 15
OWN 21
-5
59.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+4
59.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 16
OWN 20
-5
59.4%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 35 yds , Jaylond Adams returns for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
58.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
58.4%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Ray LadnerSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
58.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Khairi MuhammadSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
57.5%
Zac Everett punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
58.4%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+3
58.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+2
58.6%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+2
59.0%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 46 yds , Jaylond Adams returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 1:1258% → 64%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
58.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 7 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
58.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 5 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
64.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 60 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2638% → 37%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-2
62.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
63.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
63.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:5463% → 65%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
63.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
63.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+5
63.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 5 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
63.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+13
63.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 13 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
64.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 6 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+2
64.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
64.2%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the NoTex 45Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
65.4%
Jack Abraham punt for 17 yds, downed at the NoTex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:1338% → 46%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
62.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+11
62.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 11 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.5%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
62.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+53
53.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 53 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.0%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
56.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 18 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
59.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 12
OWN 42
0
57.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to De'Michael HarrisSimilar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
56.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Trevor TerrySimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
55.9%
Zac Everett punt for 38 yds, downed at the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
54.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 19Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+35
55.2%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Rachuan Mitchell return for 35 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
70.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Ray Ladner for 12 yds for a TD, (Jack Abraham pass to Jaylond Adams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:0334% → 44%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
66.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deion Hair-Griffin for 7 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
65.2%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+7
65.3%
Nic Smith run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
50
+49
64.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 49 yds to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
63.0%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 2Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:2962% → 76%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
61.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+59
61.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 59 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
65.2%
Kevin Perkins run for 13 yds to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.2%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
Jack Abraham run for no gain to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.5%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16END OF HALF
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:4226% → 27%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
74.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 14 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
73.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 12 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
72.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 7 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
71.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre TorreySimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
70.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+11
72.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 11 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 2:4528% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
71.7%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+10
71.7%
FINE, Mason sideline pass incomplete to OZOUGWU, Joe, QB hurry by LANDRY, Delmond, PENALTY USM holding (GUNN, Ernest) 10 yards to the UNT44, 1ST DOWN UNT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
70.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 41
0
72.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+15
72.7%
FINE, Mason deep pass incomplete to DARDEN, Jaelon, PENALTY USM pass interference (WILLIAMS, Ty) 15 yards to the USM44, 1ST DOWN UNT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
69.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+20
69.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 20 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
68.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
68.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
70.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
73.1%
Ethan Mooney 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 6:0975% → 81%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
74.6%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+19
74.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 19 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
75.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
76.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 10 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
76.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 4 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
76.8%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+11
75.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 11 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
76.9%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 39Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+14
76.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 14 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
77.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Trevor Terry, broken up by Khairi MuhammadSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
77.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 7 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
76.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Jameel MooreSimilar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
80.8%
Andrew Stein 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.1%
KD Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
79.7%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
81.0%
Mason Fine sacked by Terry Whittington and Darius Kennedy for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
82.0%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 38 yds , Quez Watkins returns for no gain to the SoMis 25 Quez Watkins fumbled, recovered by SoMis Quez Watkins SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Malik Shorts) to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2983% → 94%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+72
82.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 72 yds to the NoTex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for no gain to the NoTex 3Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
83.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Coker Wright) to the NoTex 8Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
83.8%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 9Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
83.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Khalique Washington) to the NoTex 14Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
94.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
92.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 17 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
92.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
92.4%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
92.5%
Jason Bean pass intercepted Ky'el Hemby return for no gain to the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2895% → 95%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
94.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 5 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+8
94.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.6%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-1
95.5%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+2
95.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
95.2%
Matt Bromell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 13:31
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
95.2%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
95.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Jacob Brammer) to the NoTex 17Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
95.2%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+10
95.3%
Jason Bean run for 10 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 6:0697% → 100%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
96.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 4 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
96.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 8 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
96.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-1
96.9%
Jack Abraham run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+21
96.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 21 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
96.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 10 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
97.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 9 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
97.0%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:210% → 2%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Joe Ozougwu for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.6%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+12
99.6%
Nic Smith run for 12 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.6%
BEAN, Jason roll out pass incomplete to WHITE, Greg, PENALTY USM substitution infraction 5 yards to the USM29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 5
OPP 29
0
99.5%
Jason Bean run for no gain to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+5
99.5%
KD Davis run for 5 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.5%
Jason Bean run for no gain to the SoMis 24Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Nic Smith for 4 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
99.6%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Joe OzougwuSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+20
97.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Darius Maberry run for no gain to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
98.6%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 9
50
+2
98.6%
Darius Maberry run for 2 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
98.5%
Matt Bromell punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:30
Jack Abraham pass complete to Ray Ladner for 12 yds for a TD, (Jack Abraham pass to Jaylond Adams for Two-Point Conversion)
+15
TD · Q3 2:53
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 8:29
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 53 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com