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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 13 at Florida Atlantic 28

FAU
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Meiko Dotson at the FlAtl 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+17.0Home team on offense−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:48: Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 30 yds for a TD FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Crews Holt PAT BLOCKED) — MTSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:13: Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 4 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +4.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:17: Asher O'Hara run for 9 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:23: Malcolm Davidson run for 57 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +15.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:08: Larry McCammon III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas PAT BLOCKED) — FAU win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:43MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:15FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48FAU 4th & 11 at MTSU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:54FAU 4th & 5 at MTSU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:31FAU 4th & 8 at MTSU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−8.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:31MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:21FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 35, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:30MTSU 4th & 5 at FAU 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:36MTSU 4th & 6 at FAU 21, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−9.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.8%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:36FAU 4th & 13 at FAU 43, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−2.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:22MTSU 4th & 23 at MTSU 47, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:49FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 19, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:48MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:13FAU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:17MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:23FAU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:08FAU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
81.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Malcolm Davidson for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+12
81.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Malcolm Davidson for 12 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+5
81.8%
Malcolm Davidson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
81.8%
Malcolm Davidson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-5
81.8%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Nick Weber) to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+5
81.8%
Larry McCammon III run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
81.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
81.8%
Matthew Hayball punt for 43 yds, downed at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
80.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Matt Martin) to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 15
OWN 10
0
80.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+5
81.0%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+5
81.0%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to WINDHAM, CJ, PENALTY FAU offside (JEFFERSON, Noah) 5 yards to the MT20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+1
81.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 1 yd to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
81.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 54 yds , Dante Cousart returns for no gain to the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.6%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
80.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 3 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
80.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 9 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
80.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 6 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
80.9%
Malcolm Davidson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
80.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
80.6%
Matthew Hayball punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 3:1420% → 24%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
79.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+29
79.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 29 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
79.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
79.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+6
79.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
79.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 1 yd to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+7
79.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
79.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
75.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 30 yds for a TD FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Crews Holt PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
76.5%
Akileis Leroy return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
77.5%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
77.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 13 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
78.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 14 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
78.4%
Deangelo Antoine run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 42 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 14
OWN 48
0
77.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-1
77.7%
ANTOINE, Da. rush for 4 yards to the MT48 (MOFFATT, J.), PENALTY FAU holding (RAINE, John) 1 yards to the FAU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
77.7%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+4
77.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 4 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
77.2%
Matthew Hayball punt for 48 yds, downed at the MTnSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6INT
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:2024% → 26%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+35
76.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 35 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.5%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+23
75.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 23 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
74.1%
Zack Dobson run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
73.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 18 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
73.7%
DOBSON, Zack rush for 5 yards to the FAU7, fumble forced by LEROY, Akileis, fumble by DOBSON, Zack recovered by MT STRIBLING, K. at FAU12, PENALTY MT illegal block 15 yards to the FAU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 27
-5
73.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Jarrin Pierce) to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 30
OPP 32
+1
73.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 29
OPP 31
0
74.2%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted, touchback. Meiko Dotson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:1374% → 80%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.7%
Chris Robison run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
73.6%
Malcolm Davidson run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
73.4%
Malcolm Davidson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
73.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 12 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
74.9%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
74.4%
Malcolm Davidson run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
75.4%
Chris Robison run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
75.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Larry McCammon III for 6 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+1
75.9%
Malcolm Davidson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+25
75.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 25 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.9%
Malcolm Davidson run for no gain to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 4 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5623% → 34%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 8 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
76.3%
Jayy McDonald run for no gain to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
76.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Meiko DotsonSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
77.0%
O'HARA, Asher rush for 3 yards to the MT39 (BARNWELL, Hosea;McCRARY, Kevin), PENALTY FAU holding (PIERRE, James) 13 yards to the MT49, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
75.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+13
76.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
75.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 31 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
65.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 9 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:2371% → 73%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+30
70.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 30 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
72.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
72.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Tyshun RenderSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+5
71.0%
Malcolm Davidson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
72.5%
Vladimir Rivas 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
69.3%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+6
69.1%
Brad Anderson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
68.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
68.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (Brad Anderson) to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
68.5%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
66.7%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
66.9%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
68.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
68.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Meiko Dotson at the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:0068% → 74%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
68.4%
Daniel Leconte run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
70.6%
Daniel Leconte run for no gain to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
70.0%
Daniel Leconte run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
70.5%
Malcolm Davidson run for 25 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
72.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+12
71.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 12 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
72.3%
Malcolm Davidson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
72.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+10
71.0%
Malcolm Davidson run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
72.3%
Malcolm Davidson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
72.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
71.0%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
73.7%
Vladimir Rivas 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
70.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-6
71.9%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Ray Ellis for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
74.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
73.3%
Chris Robison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
72.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John Mitchell, broken up by Tyshun RenderSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
71.0%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Reed BlankenshipSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+20
70.5%
Matthew Hayball punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the FLAATLANTC 30 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:0332% → 31%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
68.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+15
68.2%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to ENGLAND-CHISOLM, PENALTY FAU pass interference (PIERRE, James) 15 yards to the FAU37, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
67.7%
Jayy McDonald run for no gain to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
67.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
67.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-4
69.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
69.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy Marshall, broken up by Rashad SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:5973% → 88%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
72.5%
Nick Tronti run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
72.4%
Nick Tronti run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
87.7%
Malcolm Davidson run for 57 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17MISSED FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 4:4714% → 15%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
84.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
85.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
83.8%
MOBLEY, Chaton rush for no gain to the FAU49 (BARNWELL, Hosea), PENALTY MT holding (GREER, Marcus) 10 yards to the MT41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+34
85.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for 34 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
82.7%
O'HARA, Asher rush for 8 yards to the FAU17 (LEROY, Akileis), PENALTY MT holding (GREER, Marcus) 10 yards to the FAU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+19
83.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 19 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-5
82.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Will Gilchrist) to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-5
82.8%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+5
84.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
85.5%
Crews Holt 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
87.8%
Nick Tronti run for no gain to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
87.7%
Deangelo Antoine run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
87.6%
Larry McCammon III run for no gain to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+16
87.0%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 16 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
89.1%
Malcolm Davidson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-5
89.0%
Malcolm Davidson run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
87.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 13
OWN 43
+1
87.3%
Matthew Hayball punt for 43 yds , Ty Lee returns for 1 yd to the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
89.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
90.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
90.5%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted Rashad Smith return for no gain to the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:1591% → 98%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
90.9%
Nick Tronti run for no gain to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
90.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Dante CousartSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+13
90.0%
Malcolm Davidson run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
90.9%
Malcolm Davidson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
91.7%
Malcolm Davidson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+5
91.3%
Malcolm Davidson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
91.8%
Malcolm Davidson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.7%
Larry McCammon III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21INT
13 plays · 54 yds · 2:463% → 3%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
96.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
96.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 13 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.5%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
96.5%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+19
96.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Isiah Upton for 19 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-13
96.4%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Tim Bonner for a loss of 13 yards to the MTnSt 47 Asher O'Hara fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Asher O'Hara , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 23
OWN 47
0
96.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 23
OWN 47
0
96.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 23
OWN 47
+32
97.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 32 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.7%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted, touchback. Meiko Dotson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.0%
James Charles run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-4
99.0%
James Charles run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+2
99.2%
Larry McCammon III run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
99.2%
Matthew Hayball punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+21
99.1%
Zack Dobson run for 21 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 6 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+10
98.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Isiah Upton for 10 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
98.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, (5 Yards) to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:23
Malcolm Davidson run for 57 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q2 4:17
Asher O'Hara run for 9 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q4 5:08
Larry McCammon III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas PAT BLOCKED)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com