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UTSA

UTSA 26 at UTEP 16

UTEP
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:52 · Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Sincere McCormick
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense−21.7Score differential−10.3Garbage-time factor−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Pregame prior+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Gavin Baechle 37 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +4.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:22: Blaze Moorhead 18 Yd pass from Lowell Narcisse ( PAT failed) — UTSA win probability +10.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:26: Treyvon Hughes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +17.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 4:02: Sincere McCormick run for 51 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:44: Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UTEP win probability +4.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17UTEP 4th & 12 at UTSA 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 26, up 7
    Close callPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:40UTEP 4th & 15 at UTEP 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:34UTSA 4th & 3 at UTEP 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:44UTSA 4th & 5 at UTEP 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:44UTEP 4th & 21 at UTEP 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:17UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:24UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.9%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:24UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:47UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 29, up 10
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:22UTEP 4th & 15 at UTEP 47, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:52UTSA 4th & 3 at UTEP 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−3.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:26UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−5.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UTEP 4th & 16 at UTEP 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−5.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:38UTSA 4th & 5 at UTEP 25, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−9.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:38UTEP 4th & 25 at UTSA 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−3.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:12UTEP 4th & 5 at UTSA 11, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:17UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:22UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:26UTEP Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:02UTSA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:44UTEP Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.8%
Treyvon Hughes run for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
52.8%
Treyvon Hughes run for 4 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
52.8%
Kai Locksley run for no gain to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
52.8%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:4047% → 49%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
52.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 23 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
52.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+8
52.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 8 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
52.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+7
52.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 7 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
52.7%
Lowell Narcisse run for 9 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+9
51.0%
Lowell Narcisse run for 9 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
51.6%
Treyvon Hughes run for 28 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
52.1%
Treyvon Hughes run for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
52.1%
Treyvon Hughes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
52.3%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
52.1%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 7
OPP 33
-5
51.7%
UTEP Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
51.5%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 33 yds, downed at the TexSA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
50.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+6
50.9%
Lowell Narcisse run for 6 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+5
50.9%
UTEP Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
50.7%
Lowell Narcisse run for 1 yd to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+5
50.7%
Brenden Brady run for 5 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+1
50.7%
Lowell Narcisse run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
51.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Justin Garrett at the UTEP 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
50.2%
Josh Fields run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+8
49.8%
Kai Locksley run for 8 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-8
49.9%
Kai Locksley sacked by DeQuarius Henry for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+12
49.2%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 45 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 12 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6FG
18 plays · 59 yds · 7:5552% → 55%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
48.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
48.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 8 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
47.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
47.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
48.0%
Lowell Narcisse run for no gain to the UTEP 47Similar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+6
48.0%
B.J. Daniels run for 6 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
47.1%
Lowell Narcisse run for 11 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
46.8%
Lowell Narcisse run for 2 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+11
46.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 11 yds to the UTEP 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
46.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+2
46.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+5
47.0%
B.J. Daniels run for 5 yds to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
46.7%
B.J. Daniels run for 1 yd to the UTEP 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
46.7%
B.J. Daniels run for 3 yds to the UTEP 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
46.9%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
47.0%
Lowell Narcisse run for 1 yd to the UTEP 5Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
44.6%
Hunter Duplessis 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
43.2%
Treyvon Hughes run for 3 yds to the UTEP 15Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-7
43.3%
Kai Locksley sacked by Jarrod Carter-McLin for a loss of 7 yards to the UTEP 8Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 14
OWN 8
-7
42.4%
Kai Locksley sacked by Solomon Wise for a loss of 7 yards to the UTEP 1Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 21
OWN 1
-2
42.1%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 44 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 0 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, offside defense (15 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
40.6%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
42.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
42.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Tariq WoolenSimilar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
42.9%
Lucas Dean punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Justin Garrett at the UTEP 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
41.1%
Josh Fields run for 10 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
41.6%
Kai Locksley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
41.6%
Treyvon Hughes run for 1 yd to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+6
40.7%
Kai Locksley run for 6 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+2
41.0%
Kai Locksley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
42.1%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
42.0%
Kai Locksley run for 7 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-1
42.2%
Josh Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
41.3%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4061% → 63%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
38.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
38.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Carlos Strickland II for 3 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
37.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+8
36.9%
Lucas Dean punt for 41 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 8 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11FG
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:3636% → 43%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+43
35.8%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 28 yds to the UTSA 34 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Solomon Wise) to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
38.7%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Tre'Shon WolfSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
38.7%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+37
43.0%
Gavin Baechle 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3861% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
38.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
37.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+21
36.8%
Lowell Narcisse run for 21 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
36.3%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Denzel Chukwukelu for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 42 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, intentional grounding (Lowell Narcisse) to the UTEP 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 42
+7
37.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-5
36.8%
3rd and 9, PENALTY UTSA false start (PASTUCCI, D.) 5 yards to the UTEP40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+18
38.0%
Lowell Narcisse run for 18 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
35.9%
Lowell Narcisse run for 4 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
35.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Sincere McCormickSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+18
24.9%
Blaze Moorhead 18 Yd pass from Lowell Narcisse ( PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
30.0%
Kai Locksley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+13
30.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 13 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.2%
Kai Locksley run for 12 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
30.8%
LOCKSLEY, Kai sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UTEP32 (HAYNES, Jaylon), PENALTY UTSA face mask (HAYNES, Jaylon) 15 yards to the UTSA48, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
32.2%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 47Similar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+2
31.3%
Kai Locksley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
31.2%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 13
OWN 49
-2
30.0%
Kai Locksley run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 47Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
29.6%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
22.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 23 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
20.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
20.2%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the UTEP 47Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+2
20.5%
Lowell Narcisse run for 2 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
22.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Sincere McCormickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 3:0625% → 45%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
25.0%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 13 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
26.2%
Josh Fields run for 21 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
27.9%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 9 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+4
27.9%
Brandon Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
45.0%
Treyvon Hughes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0068% → 64%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
32.5%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
33.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Blaze MoorheadSimilar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
34.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Blaze Moorhead, broken up by Duron LoweSimilar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
35.8%
Lucas Dean punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -21 yds · 1:2642% → 35%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
41.7%
UTEP Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UTEP 31Similar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
38.7%
Treyvon Hughes run for 1 yd to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-5
38.0%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Greg Long) to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 27
-2
37.1%
Treyvon Hughes run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 25
0
35.5%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Tre'Shon Wolf, broken up by Cassius GradySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 30 yds, downed at the TexSA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3071% → 75%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
29.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+24
29.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 24 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
27.8%
Lowell Narcisse run for 3 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
27.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+2
26.7%
Lowell Narcisse run for 2 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
25.3%
Hunter Duplessis 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
25.9%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 29 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
30.1%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 10 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
30.1%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Justin Garrett for 12 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
32.5%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Justin Garrett for 4 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-3
32.5%
Brandon Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-10
30.0%
JONES, Brandon crossing pass complete to COWING, Jacob for 13 yards to the UTSA10 (MAYFIELD, Corey), PENALTY UTEP holding 10 yards to the UTSA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 19
OPP 33
-6
28.3%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Jess Trussell for 9 yds to the TexSA 24 UTEP Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 25
OPP 39
0
27.1%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Eric BanksSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 25
OPP 39
+17
25.4%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 7 UTEP Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the TexSA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:0385% → 98%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
15.3%
Lowell Narcisse run for 12 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
15.0%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+5
15.3%
Lowell Narcisse run for 5 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
15.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Dywan Griffin for 2 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+14
11.4%
Lowell Narcisse run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
50
-1
7.5%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+51
1.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 51 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21TD
18 plays · 50 yds · 3:183% → 6%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
50
0
3.1%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
50
0
3.0%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Justin GarrettSimilar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 10
50
+11
3.0%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 11 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
3.2%
Brandon Jones sacked by Jarrod Carter-McLin for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+15
1.5%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 15 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
1.6%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 3 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
1.8%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
1.7%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 11 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
1.7%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Tre'Shon Wolf, broken up by Corey Mayfield Jr.Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
1.8%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 5 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
1.8%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Jess Trussell, broken up by SaVion HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+7
1.8%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 7 yds to the TexSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.0%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Tre'Shon WolfSimilar
Q4 3:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
1.9%
JONES, Brandon sideline pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Kavika, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (GRADY, Cassius) 2 yards to the UTSA2, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.3%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
50
-3
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:26
Treyvon Hughes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK)
+17
TD · Q3 11:22
Blaze Moorhead 18 Yd pass from Lowell Narcisse ( PAT failed)
-10.9
TD · Q4 4:02
Sincere McCormick run for 51 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com