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HOU

Houston 46 at North Texas 25

UNT
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+4.6UNT 7.2%Mason Fine pass complete to JasonPirtle for 15 yds for a TD, (EthanMooney KICK)AWAY 39 - HOME 25 · Q4 5:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:06 · Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 15 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Home team on offense−28.4Pregame prior+1.8Score differential−16.3Garbage-time factor−14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:27: Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 12 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +7.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:19: Patrick Carr run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +21.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:12: Tre Siggers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNT win probability +10.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:57: Ethan Mooney kickoff for 47 yds , Marquez Stevenson return for 82 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +17.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:13: Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 33 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNT win probability +6.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 9 of 14HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 22 at UNT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:58UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:27UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:35HOU 4th & 8 at UNT 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−6.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:35UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.0%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:20UNT 4th & 5 at HOU 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:20HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:59UNT 4th & 9 at HOU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:34UNT 4th & 23 at HOU 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:22HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:14UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:09HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:00UNT 4th & 10 at HOU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:13HOU 4th & 6 at UNT 44, up 13
    Close callPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−2.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:35UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 8, down 13
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:35UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:32HOU 4th & 27 at UNT 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:22UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 17, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:06UNT 4th & 10 at HOU 15, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:01UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:58HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:27HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:19HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:12UNT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:57HOU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:13UNT Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:06UNT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:01HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.5%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
71.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for no gain to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
71.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 18 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
71.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 7 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+7
71.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 7 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
71.5%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+2
71.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 42
-9
71.5%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 49 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTex Mason FineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 49
+3
71.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 39 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 3 yds to the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 1:2229% → 32%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
70.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 1 yd to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+16
70.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 16 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
68.1%
Patrick Carr run for 68 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
68.4%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 22Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
68.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
68.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 12 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
68.2%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 47 yds, downed at the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 4:0933% → 40%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
67.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 10 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
67.3%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
67.2%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+9
67.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Patrick Carr for 9 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
66.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 9 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
66.8%
Chandler Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
66.9%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
66.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 32 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
59.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 12 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
60.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 13 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
61.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
61.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
61.6%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+1
61.5%
Loren Easly run for 1 yd to the NoTex 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:3943% → 48%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
57.2%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+38
57.3%
Clayton Tune run for 38 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
57.2%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
55.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Taylor RobinsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
55.8%
Clayton Tune sacked by Tyreke Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 14:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
52.2%
Dalton Witherspoon 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:1554% → 54%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
53.8%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
53.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+10
53.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 10 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
54.8%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
54.9%
Tre Siggers run for 26 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
55.4%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
55.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+5
55.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive offside (Deontay Anderson) to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
55.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
53.8%
Ethan Mooney 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.6%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
51.7%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
51.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
52.3%
Dane Roy punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:2551% → 47%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
50.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre TorreySimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+41
50.7%
Tre Siggers run for 41 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
52.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
52.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 9 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-9
52.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 1 yd to the Houst 30 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Jyaire Shorter) to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+1
52.3%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+12
52.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 12 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
53.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 14
OPP 31
-9
52.8%
Mason Fine sacked by Payton Turner and Derek Parish for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 23
OPP 40
0
46.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre TorreySimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 23
OPP 40
0
46.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
45.3%
Patrick Carr run for 13 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
45.1%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
45.2%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-3
45.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Patrick Carr for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+15
46.0%
Dane Roy punt for 58 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 15 yds to the NoTex 41 HOUSTON Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
44.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael Lawrence, broken up by Garrison VaughnSimilar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
43.8%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
44.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 6 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
45.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Manase Mose) to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
43.9%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:2360% → 61%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
39.7%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Houst 9Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-2
38.6%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 7Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 12
OWN 7
+3
38.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 3 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
38.6%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds, downed at the NoTex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:5635% → 44%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
35.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deion Hair-Griffin for 9 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+6
35.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
35.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 12 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
36.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
36.3%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
39.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
43.7%
Ethan Mooney 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:4158% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
42.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Patrick Carr for 11 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
42.4%
Kelan Walker run for 1 yd to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
42.5%
Patrick Carr run for 7 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+12
42.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Patrick Carr for 12 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
42.2%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
42.2%
Chandler Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+15
42.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Taylor Robinson) to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
42.0%
Patrick Carr run for 6 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.7%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0725% → 38%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
25.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
25.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 8 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
26.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Roderic Burns for 8 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
26.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 9 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+16
27.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 16 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
28.2%
Mason Fine run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+11
28.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Roderic Burns for 11 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
28.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deion Hair-Griffin for 7 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
28.5%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds to the Houst 10 Mason Fine fumbled, forced by Damarion Williams,Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+6
28.1%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.1%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4421% → 30%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
20.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, intentional grounding (Mason Fine) to the NoTex 13Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+17
20.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 17 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
20.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 21 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
22.7%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
22.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 9 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
23.2%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
23.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deonte Simpson for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
23.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre Torrey, broken up by David AnenihSimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+33
29.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 33 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
21.5%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+9
21.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 9 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
21.1%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
21.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 1 yd to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+1
21.4%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
23.0%
Dane Roy punt for 43 yds, downed at the NoTex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0323% → 4%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
23.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 4 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+5
22.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 10
-2
22.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 8Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 3
OWN 8
+60
4.4%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 52 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 60 yds for a TD, (Clayton Tune pass to Marquez Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
4.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jyaire Shorter, broken up by Damarion WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
4.7%
Mason Fine run for 9 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
5.1%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-2
5.0%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
3.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
3.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 7 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+5
3.0%
Patrick Carr run for 5 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
2.9%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 34 Team fumbled, recovered by Houst Clayton TuneSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
2.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Chandler Smith for no gain to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 13
OPP 34
-10
3.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 23
OPP 44
-4
3.0%
Clayton Tune sacked by Joe Ozougwu for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 27
OPP 48
0
3.4%
Dane Roy punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 3:163% → 7%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
2.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deion Hair-GriffinSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
2.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deion Hair-Griffin, broken up by Damarion WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+2
2.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 2 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+42
2.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 42 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
2.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+7
2.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 7 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
2.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete, broken up by David AnenihSimilar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+9
2.4%
Jason Bean run for 9 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
2.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 9 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+6
2.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 6 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
2.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Tre SiggersSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
2.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
2.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+15
7.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 15 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0596% → 100%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
4.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+55
4.3%
Clayton Tune run for 55 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
3.9%
Patrick Carr run for 13 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
0.4%
Patrick Carr run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
1.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Greg White for 7 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
1.2%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jason PirtleSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
1.2%
Jason Bean run for 2 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
1.2%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.4%
Chandler Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
0.4%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 12
50
-6
0.4%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:19
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-21.3
TD · Q3 6:57
Ethan Mooney kickoff for 47 yds , Marquez Stevenson return for 82 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-17.5
TD · Q3 7:12
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com