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CIN

Cincinnati 52 at Marshall 14

MRSH
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:45 · Robert LeFevre punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense−15.9Score differential−8.5Garbage-time factor−3.1Pregame prior−7.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:40: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +0.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:53: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 17 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +5.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:45: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +11.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:10: Josiah Deguara 2 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick) — CIN win probability +3.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:46: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +4.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:40MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41CIN 4th & 1 at MRSH 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:53CIN 4th & 17 at MRSH 17, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MRSH 4th & 16 at CIN 32, down 14
    Close callPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:00CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:25MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:45MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:30MRSH 4th & 1 at CIN 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 14, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:46MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 33, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:35CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 29, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:10MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 20, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:39CIN 4th & 3 at MRSH 15, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:39MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 19, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:40CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 25, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:59MRSH 4th & 8 at CIN 48, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:40CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:53CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:45CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:10CIN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:46CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:03CIN Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:35MRSH Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:40MRSH Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:20CIN Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:2061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
39.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 26 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
39.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 14 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
39.1%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Marsh 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+12
39.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 12 yds to the Marsh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
39.1%
WARREN, Michael rush for 4 yards to the MAR4 (COUCH, Marquis;DRAYTON, B.), PENALTY CIN illegal formation 5 yards to the MAR13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
38.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
39.0%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
39.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 5 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
38.9%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
38.9%
Robert LeFevre punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
20 plays · 64 yds · 8:4861% → 67%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
38.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 15 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
38.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+7
38.6%
Tavion Thomas run for 7 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
38.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
38.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+5
38.7%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
38.6%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+5
38.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 5 yds to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
38.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Marsh 10Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
38.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Marsh 5Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+1
38.7%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Marsh 4Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
38.8%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Marsh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
38.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (Desmond Ridder) to the Marsh 8Similar
Q1 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
38.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
38.6%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the Marsh 8Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
38.7%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Omari Cobb and Darius Hodge for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 10 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (5 Yards) to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
38.6%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Marsh 4Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
38.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Warren II CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the Marsh 19Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+2
38.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
33.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 17 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:5334% → 33%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
33.7%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 23Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
33.6%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+15
33.4%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 15 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.3%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
34.0%
Isaiah Green run for 8 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+26
34.6%
Brenden Knox run for 11 yds to the MARSHALL 41 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Darrick Forrest) to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
34.3%
Isaiah Green sacked by Ethan Tucky for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 36 MARSHALL Penalty, intentional grounding (Isaiah Green) to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+4
33.6%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
33.4%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 32
0
32.8%
Isaiah Green punt for 26 yds, downed at the Cincy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
31.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 6 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-5
31.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+1
31.3%
Rashad Medaris run for 1 yd to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
31.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 8
OWN 8
+5
31.9%
James Smith punt for 52 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 5 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
32.7%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
32.6%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 46Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
32.2%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+8
31.8%
Robert LeFevre punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 12 , Ryan Montgomery returns for 8 yds to the MARSHALL 46 CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:4170% → 83%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
29.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 6 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+3
29.5%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
29.7%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+46
29.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 46 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
28.6%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+15
28.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 15 yds to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
17.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
20.3%
Brenden Knox run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 16Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
20.1%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Brenden KnoxSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+8
20.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Brenden Knox for 8 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+5
20.1%
LEFEVRE, Robert punt 40 yards to the CIN36, MONTGOMERY, R. return to the MAR45 (BEARDALL, Matt), PENALTY CIN roughing the kicker (SANDERS, Myjai) 5 yards to the MAR29, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
20.4%
GREEN, Isaiah pass complete to GAINES, Xavier for 3 yards to the MAR32 (FORREST, D.), PENALTY MAR illegal touching (GAINES, Xavier) 5 yards to the MAR24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+4
20.2%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+1
20.2%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 29Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+4
20.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 4 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
20.2%
Robert LeFevre punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5184% → 88%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
16.4%
Michael Warren II run for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
16.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
16.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 5 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
15.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 8 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+7
15.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
15.7%
RIDDER, Desmond pass incomplete to GEDDIS, Thomas, QB hurry by HAMES, Channing, QB hurry by EDWARDS, Jamare, PENALTY MAR pass interference (MCCLAIN-SAPP, J) 15 yards to the MAR24, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
15.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 12 yds to the Marsh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
15.4%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Marsh 9Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
15.4%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Marsh 7Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+2
12.0%
Josiah Deguara 2 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10END OF HALF
13 plays · 65 yds · 0:409% → 4%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
9.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Corey Gammage for 20 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
9.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Corey Gammage for 8 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
5.3%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
5.3%
Isaiah Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 1
OWN 0
0
3.9%
GREEN, Isaiah pass incomplete to GAINES, Xavier, QB hurry by VANN, Malik, PENALTY CIN pass interference off-setting, PENALTY MAR ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
4.1%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
4.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
4.3%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tavin Richardson, broken up by Coby BryantSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+33
4.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Brenden Knox for 33 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
7.9%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
7.7%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
7.6%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
7.8%
Robert LeFevre punt for 43 yds, downed at the Cincy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 5:1393% → 98%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
7.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 3
50
+5
6.2%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
7.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 5 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
6.8%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+7
6.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
6.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 6 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+11
6.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 11 yds to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
6.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Marsh 12Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+8
6.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
2.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.3%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
2.2%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
2.2%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Brenden Knox for 6 yds to the Marsh 33 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
2.2%
Robert LeFevre punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.0%
Ben Bryant run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
2.0%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
2.0%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
2.7%
James Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
1.7%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
1.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Brenden Knox for 3 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-4
1.6%
Isaiah Green sacked by Michael Pitts for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 20Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+6
1.6%
Robert LeFevre punt for 51 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 6 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:5599% → 99%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
1.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+38
1.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 38 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
1.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 8 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
1.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Marsh 14Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-1
1.2%
Tavion Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 15Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
1.0%
Sam Crosa 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.6%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Talik Keaton, broken up by Jarell WhiteSimilar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
0.6%
Brenden Knox run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 19Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
0.6%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Brenden KnoxSimilar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
0.6%
Robert LeFevre punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:3199% → 99%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+56
0.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 56 yds to the Marsh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.6%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:281% → 0%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.5%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
0.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 6 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.5%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+7
0.5%
Brenden Knox run for 7 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
0.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Willie Johnson for 23 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
0.6%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+10
0.5%
GREEN, Isaiah pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Willie, QB hurry by WHITE, Jarell, PENALTY CIN holding (GARDNER, Ahmad) 10 yards to the CIN13, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
0.5%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.4%
Sheldon Evans run for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
0.5%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
0.5%
Ben Bryant run for 9 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.5%
Ben Bryant run for no gain to the Cincy 40 Ben Bryant fumbled, recovered by Marsh Domenick MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
0.4%
Willie Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
0.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
0.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+3
0.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
0.6%
James Smith punt for 49 yds, downed at the Marsh 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
0.3%
Sheldon Evans run for 9 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-1
0.3%
Isaiah Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+16
0.3%
Sheldon Evans run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
50
0
0.3%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
50
0
0.3%
Sheldon Evans run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 10
50
+2
0.3%
Sheldon Evans run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
0.3%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
0.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryan Wright for 7 yds to the MARSHALL 45 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
0.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Blue Smith for 11 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
0.2%
Mike Kopaygarodsky run for 4 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-1
0.2%
Mike Kopaygarodsky run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 16Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+12
0.2%
Mike Kopaygarodsky run for 12 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
0.2%
Mike Kopaygarodsky run for 3 yds to the Marsh 1Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Michael Kopaygorodsky 1 Yd Run (Sam Crosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
0.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+1
0.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the Marsh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:45
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q1 2:53
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 17 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)
-5.4
TD · Q3 8:46
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Crosa KICK)
-4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com