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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreNEV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:50 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:49: Treyvon Hughes run for 6 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +9.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:02: Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +12.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:23: Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +7.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:01: Kai Locksley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +19.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:22: Kelton Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton PAT BLOCKED) — NEV win probability +12.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snapGo for it79.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.0%average punt
- Q1 8:10NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snapGo for it74.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.3%average punt
- Q1 6:51UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snapGo for it26.0%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.4%average punt
- Q2 9:04UTEP 4th & 1 at NEV 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.9%71% to convertField goal31.8%−1.162% to makePunt29.4%−3.5average punt
- Q2 1:36UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snapGo for it23.7%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00UTEP 4th & 1 at NEV 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.1%71% to convertField goal23.4%−2.760% to makePunt17.5%−8.5average punt
- Q3 7:27UTEP 4th & 1 at NEV 2, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.5%60% to convertField goal23.8%−3.794% to makePunt13.9%−13.6average punt
- Q3 1:49NEV 4th & 10 at UTEP 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snapGo for it55.7%−2.424% to convertField goalTheir call58.1%88% to makePunt44.0%−14.1average punt
- Q4 13:22UTEP 4th & 17 at UTEP 43, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it16.7%−3.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q4 1:52UTEP 4th & 20 at UTEP 30, down 16Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−0.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 8:10UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.3%97% to makeGo for two25.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.1%97% to makeGo for two71.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:49UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.7%97% to makeGo for two40.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:02NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.6%97% to makeGo for two62.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:23NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.6%97% to makeGo for two74.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:01UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.1%97% to makeGo for two39.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:22NEV Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:08NEV Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%−0.297% to makeGo for two96.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEVDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
UTEPDrive 2TD10 plays · 70 yds · 6:0318% → 23%
Q1 14:13
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+13
18.0%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 13 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
UTEPDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 6:51
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-15
23.7%
JONES, Brandon crossing pass complete to BUSEY, Alan for 7 yards to the UTEP37, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (BUSEY, Alan) 15 yards to the UTEP15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+1
23.4%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 49 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for 1 yd to the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD11 plays · 73 yds · 3:5974% → 77%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
26.3%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 4 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+17
26.1%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 2 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Josh Ortega) to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
25.6%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Dominic Christian for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+27
26.3%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 27 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+15
25.1%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Dominic Christian for 15 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 1
OPP 0
0
25.0%
TAUA, Toa rush left for 6 yards to the UTEP1 (PRINCE, Justin), PENALTY NEV holding off-setting, PENALTY UTEP face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.8%
Kai Locksley pass intercepted Lawson Hall return for 2 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
UTEPDrive 8TD12 plays · 86 yds · 6:0527% → 42%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+37
26.9%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Jess Trussell for 37 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+9
30.3%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Jess Trussell for 9 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+8
31.9%
JONES, Brandon sideline pass incomplete to TRUSSELL, Jess, QB hurry by HAMMOND, Sam, PENALTY NEV roughing passer (HAMMOND, Sam) 8 yards to the NEV8, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4762% → 73%
UTEPDrive 10INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
33.6%
Brandon Jones pass intercepted Tyson Williams return for 14 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11TD3 plays · 22 yds · 0:2773% → 80%
UTEPDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:4722% → 23%
NEVDrive 13INT6 plays · 64 yds · 0:0078% → 81%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
20.8%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 7 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
20.2%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 9 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
19.6%
SOLANO, C. crossing pass incomplete to COOKS, Elijah (ROGERS, Justin), PENALTY UTEP pass interference (ROSS, Ykili) 15 yards to the UTEP31, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
19.0%
Cristian Solano run for 7 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, Defensive holding (Ykili Ross) to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
18.9%
Cristian Solano pass intercepted, touchback. Ykili Ross return for no gain UTEP Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ykili Ross)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15TD19 plays · 75 yds · 9:5923% → 50%
NEVDrive 16FG9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1261% → 67%
Q3 5:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
35.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the UTEP 2 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jake Nelson) to the UTEP 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17INT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
NEVDrive 18TD4 plays · 15 yds · 1:3871% → 83%
Q4 13:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.7%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 18 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q4 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
19.3%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 10 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
21.3%
Treyvon Hughes run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
50
-10
23.2%
Kai Locksley run for no gain to the 50 yard line UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (Ruben Guerra) to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 17
OWN 43
0
21.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to James Tupou for no gain to the UTEP 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:4486% → 99%
UTEPDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · -3 yds · 2:163% → 2%
Q4 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
3.3%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 11 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
3.4%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Josh Fields for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 39Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-9
3.3%
Brandon Jones sacked by Tristan Nichols for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 20
OWN 30
-8
2.4%
Kai Locksley sacked by Tristan Nichols for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:01
Kai Locksley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK)
+19.4
TD · Q4 13:22
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton PAT BLOCKED)
-12.3
TD · Q2 3:02
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
-12