2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Legion Field
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreUSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:55 · Jack Brooks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:33: Spencer Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +2.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- FG · Q1 0:00: Frankie Onate 27 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +1.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:02: Spencer Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +6.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:09: Tylan Morton pass complete to Tra Minter for 21 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST down — USA win probability +5.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:37: Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 11 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST down — UAB win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 1 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 15:00USA 4th & 6 at USA 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it20.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%average punt
- Q1 10:55USA 4th & 4 at USA 44, down 7Close callPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:00USA 4th & 6 at UAB 10, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snapGo for it17.5%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call17.7%88% to makePunt14.1%−3.6average punt
- Q2 9:02USA 4th & 5 at USA 19, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it11.9%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q2 4:09USA 4th & 20 at USA 15, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it9.2%−1.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q2 1:09UAB 4th & 2 at USA 23, up 25Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.1%57% to convertField goalTheir call95.0%−0.170% to makePunt93.1%−2.0average punt
- Q2 0:40USA 4th & 3 at UAB 49, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 5:35USA 4th & 4 at USA 31, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 1:30UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 30, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 14:29USA 4th & 8 at UAB 48, down 32Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 9:59USA 4th & 10 at USA 24, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:10UAB 4th & 6 at USA 15, up 32Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goal99.9%83% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:00UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.1%97% to makeGo for two79.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:33UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:02UAB Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.3%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:28UAB Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:17UAB Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSADrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
UABDrive 2TD3 plays · 80 yds · 1:5981% → 81%
USADrive 3PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
80.9%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 4 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
80.8%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 2 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
81.0%
Jack Brooks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4TD12 plays · 81 yds · 5:3081% → 84%
Q1 10:03
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+9
81.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 9 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+16
81.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 16 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+10
81.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 10 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.5%
Clock 04:54, PENALTY USA substitution infraction 1 yards to the USA1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FG14 plays · 65 yds · 4:3317% → 19%
Q1 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
83.1%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 1 yd to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
82.9%
Tra Minter run for 13 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, illegal use of hands (15 Yards) to the UAB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
82.1%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Will BolerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6TD12 plays · 74 yds · 5:5381% → 91%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
82.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 13 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
50
+33
83.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 33 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
83.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for no gain to the SAlab 17Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+12
83.6%
Tyler Johnston III run for 12 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-14
86.5%
Morton, Tylan pass incomplete to Wilson, Jared (WILDER, Noah), PENALTY UAB pass interference (WILDER, Noah) 3 yards to the USA28, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY, PENALTY USA unsportsmanlike conduct (Wilson, Jared) 14 yards to the USA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
88.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 33 , Myron Mitchell returns for no gain to the UAB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8TD3 plays · 67 yds · 1:2091% → 92%
USADrive 9PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:1912% → 12%
Q2 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
87.6%
Tylan Morton sacked by Jordan Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-7
87.2%
Tylan Morton sacked by Kristopher Moll for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
88.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10MISSED FG6 plays · 27 yds · 2:1193% → 93%
USADrive 11DOWNS6 plays · 28 yds · 0:2913% → 11%
UABDrive 12INT4 plays · 19 yds · 0:2096% → 96%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
95.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 11 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
95.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Jonathan Haden for 8 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
95.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted, touchback. Gus Nave return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 60 yds · 0:119% → 8%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
90.5%
Morton, Tylan pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen (DAWKINS, Will), PENALTY UAB pass interference (THOMAS V, S.) 15 yards to the UAB41, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
91.6%
Tylan Morton pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 21 yds to the UAB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14TD18 plays · 82 yds · 8:3897% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
96.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 4 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+10
97.0%
Clock 14:15, JOHNSTON III, T pass incomplete to MITCHELL, Myron (Reed, Travis), PENALTY USA holding (Reed, Travis) 10 yards to the UAB32, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
97.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Spencer Brown for no gain to the UAB 33Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+13
97.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Markus Grossman for 13 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
98.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 8 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
98.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 5 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+16
99.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:421% → 1%
UABDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:10100% → 100%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
99.6%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Rocel McWilliams for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 8Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+11
99.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Markus Grossman for 11 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-1
99.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Skylor Clinton for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 30Similar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+10
99.7%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 34 , Tra Minter returns for 10 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 15 yds · 1:510% → 0%
UABDrive 18INT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Clock 13:02, BROWN, Spencer rush for 11 yards to the USA20 (McDonald,Khalil), PENALTY UAB holding (MITCHELL, Myron) 0 yards to the USA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+13
99.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass intercepted Sterrling Fisher return for 3 yds to the SAlab 26 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SAlab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:380% → 0%
UABDrive 20DOWNS13 plays · 59 yds · 7:47100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21END OF GAME3 plays · 14 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:37
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 11 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST down
+6.9
TD · Q2 9:02
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
+6.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:09
Tylan Morton pass complete to Tra Minter for 21 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST down
-5.1