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USM

Southern Miss 47 at Troy 42

TROY
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:10 · Tyler Sumpter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense−28.2Garbage-time factor−10.6Score differential−9.8Pregame prior+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:11: Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USM win probability +22.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:40: Neil McLaurin pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 51 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +18.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:28: Andrew Stein kickoff for 49 yds , Reggie Todd return for 69 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +18.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:53: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 34 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +23.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:51: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 35 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +22.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 4 at USM 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:30TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 7 at TROY 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:09USM 4th & 28 at TROY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:36TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 15 at TROY 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    48.1%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:32USM 4th & 8 at TROY 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:46TROY 4th & 5 at USM 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−12.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:26TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−3.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:10TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 44, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:20USM 4th & 7 at USM 22, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:52TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 31, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:12USM 4th & 2 at TROY 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 5:30USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:04USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:42TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:09TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:40TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:11USM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:40USM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:28TROY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:15USM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:53TROY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:10USM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.8
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:51TROY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
55.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, OF (5 Yards) to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 44
0
55.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
55.0%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-2
55.0%
Kaleb Barker sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 43 Kaleb Barker fumbled, recovered by Troy J.L. Gaston , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
55.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
17 plays · 93 yds · 7:5245% → 49%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+16
55.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 16 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
55.1%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+28
55.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 28 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
55.0%
De'Michael Harris run for 7 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
54.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
55.0%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
55.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
55.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 4 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+7
55.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 7 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
54.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 7 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
54.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+6
55.0%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
54.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
54.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+4
55.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 4 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
54.9%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 5Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
50.7%
Jack Abraham run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.0%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
51.9%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Delmond Landry for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+10
51.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to B.J. Smith for 10 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
51.4%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 37 yds , Jaylond Adams returns for 5 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:3550% → 56%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+48
50.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 48 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
49.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+9
49.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 9 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.3%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 1:2245% → 52%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
45.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 3
OWN 14
0
45.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+13
45.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 13 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
45.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 16 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
51.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 57 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:4250% → 51%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
50.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
49.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+13
49.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 13 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
48.9%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
48.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+12
49.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 12 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
48.6%
Kevin Perkins run for 5 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
48.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 2 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-4
48.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
49.5%
Zac Everett punt for 36 yds, downed at the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
9 plays · 97 yds · 3:1049% → 61%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+16
48.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 16 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+38
48.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 38 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
51.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 5
OPP 38
0
51.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
51.3%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+27
51.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 27 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
52.3%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
52.3%
Barker, Kaleb deep pass incomplete to Todd, Reggie, PENALTY USM pass interference (MITCHELL, R.) 5 yards to the USM2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.1%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
54.6%
Jack Abraham run for 11 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+40
53.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 40 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
51.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
51.7%
De'Michael Harris run for no gain to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 13
OPP 26
-10
53.2%
Jack Abraham sacked by Travis Sailo for a loss of 10 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 23
OPP 36
-5
55.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 28
OPP 41
0
55.2%
Zac Everett punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
58.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 3 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-4
57.8%
Kaleb Barker sacked by D.Q. Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+14
56.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 14 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
58.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 6 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-5
58.8%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+6
58.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
57.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
57.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 1:0346% → 56%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
54.1%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-5
53.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+40
54.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 40 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
49.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 18 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
49.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
49.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 7 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+26
44.4%
Andrew Stein 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
48.3%
De'Michael Harris run for 4 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+39
47.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 39 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
44.0%
De'Michael Harris run for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-38
48.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-38 Yards) to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 38
0
46.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 38
0
48.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by O'shai FletcherSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 38
0
49.9%
Zac Everett punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:5949% → 66%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
49.1%
DK Billingsley run for 8 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+17
51.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 17 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+30
52.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 30 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
66.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:0838% → 41%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.1%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
61.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 25 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
58.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
59.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+4
58.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 4 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
58.3%
Steven Anderson run for 9 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-1
56.8%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
58.1%
Jack Abraham run for 6 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
56.8%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
57.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
58.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
59.2%
Andrew Stein 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:4661% → 63%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
61.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+14
61.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 14 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+42
62.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 42 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
66.4%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
66.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
65.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
62.9%
Tyler Sumpter 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3540% → 68%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
60.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 7 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
59.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
60.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 2 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+26
61.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
50
+33
56.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 33 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
54.2%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
54.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Kevin PerkinsSimilar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+19
32.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:4538% → 32%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
37.8%
DK Billingsley run for 8 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+9
38.7%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
38.7%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-11
38.7%
Barker, Kaleb deep pass incomplete to Geiger, Kaylon (SHOWERS, S.), PENALTY TROY holding 11 yards to the TROY22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 22
+1
37.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 1 yd to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 18
OWN 23
+7
32.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 7 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
31.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:0170% → 88%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
30.4%
Jaylond Adams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+15
30.6%
ABRAHAM, Jack deep pass incomplete to WATKINS, Quez, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Fletcher, O.) 15 yards to the USM49, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
11.7%
Neil McLaurin pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 51 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2217% → 42%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK Billingsley, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
17.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+12
17.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
50
0
18.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
50
0
18.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Tray EaffordSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 10
50
+15
14.9%
Barker, Kaleb middle pass intercepted by MABERRY, Darius at the USM44, MABERRY, Darius return to the TROY0, clock 09:38, PENALTY USM pass interference (KENNEDY, Darius) 15 yards to the USM35, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
17.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
41.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 34 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4373% → 92%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
27.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 10 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
25.9%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
25.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+64
8.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 64 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
10.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 19 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
11.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 10 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
12.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
12.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-8
11.2%
Kaleb Barker sacked by D.Q. Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 18
OWN 44
0
9.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylond Adams at the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0893% → 93%
Q4 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-4
7.4%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+6
7.2%
Jack Abraham run for 6 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
6.9%
Zac Everett punt for 55 yds, downed at the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 1:345% → 29%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
4.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 8 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 2
OWN 31
0
5.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
5.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+5
4.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 5 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
4.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 29 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
6.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
28.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 35 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3690% → 94%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
9.7%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
9.4%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
4.5%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+6
5.8%
Jack Abraham run for 6 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:53
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 34 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
+23.8
TD · Q3 0:11
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-22.3
TD · Q4 2:51
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 35 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
+22
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com