2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:00 · Victor Santiago run for 4 yds to the UMass 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:57: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:36: Cooper Garcia 26 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +4.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:17: Jermaine Johnson Jr. 3 Yd pass from Andrew Brito (Cooper Garcia Kick) — CLT win probability +2.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jonathan Cruz 53 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:14: Ishod Finger run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 13:22MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q1 4:11MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 35, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q2 10:36MASS 4th & 9 at CLT 9, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call2.7%89% to makePunt0.9%−1.8average punt
- Q2 10:36CLT 4th & 14 at MASS 49, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.2%−0.419% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.6%average punt
- Q2 2:54MASS 4th & 13 at CLT 37, down 25Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.6%−0.221% to convertField goal5.7%40% to makePunt5.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:17MASS 4th & 3 at CLT 3, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.4%44% to convertField goal4.3%−0.193% to makePunt2.9%−1.5average punt
- Q3 15:00MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 34, down 21Close callPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it4.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%−0.3average punt
- Q3 10:14MASS 4th & 3 at CLT 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%52% to convertField goal0.4%−0.327% to makePunt0.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 8:07CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 42, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q3 5:18MASS 4th & 17 at MASS 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 15:00MASS 4th & 11 at midfield, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:26CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 13, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 12:07MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 39, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:18CLT 4th & 15 at MASS 17, up 35Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−0.115% to convertField goal99.9%80% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:39MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 24, down 35Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:10CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 44, up 35Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:22CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:25CLT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:11CLT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:57CLT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17MASS Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.7%97% to makeGo for two4.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:14CLT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:18CLT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:07CLT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1TD4 plays · 60 yds · 1:3893% → 93%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
93.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 46 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 13:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
93.1%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 5 yds to the UMass 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3TD14 plays · 84 yds · 7:0493% → 93%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
92.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Jacob Hunt for 5 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+9
92.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 9 yds to the Charl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
92.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cam Bent for 6 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+14
92.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Benny LeMay for 14 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
93.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 6 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+8
93.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 8 yds to the UMass 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+49
94.1%
Andrew Brito pass intercepted for a TD Henry Segura return for 49 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:006% → 6%
CLTDrive 6TD6 plays · 56 yds · 2:4395% → 98%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+39
95.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 39 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
95.0%
REYNOLDS, Chris rush for 5 yards to the UMASS12, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CLT illegal formation (EMMANUEL, D.) 5 yards to the UMASS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7FG12 plays · 66 yds · 3:213% → 7%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.4%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
97.2%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 7 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
97.4%
Andrew Brito sacked by Prince Bemah and Marquavis Gibbs for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
95.2%
Brett Kean sacked by Tyris Lebeau for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-4
95.1%
Brett Kean pass complete to Victor Tucker for a loss of 4 yards Victor Tucker fumbled, forced by Dennis Osagiede, recovered by Charl Victor TuckerSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
94.8%
Connor Bowler punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9TD22 plays · 88 yds · 5:565% → 7%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
94.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Larnel Coleman) to the UMass 37Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-15
93.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Ray Thomas-Ishman) to the Charl 44Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 20
OPP 44
+7
94.3%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Zak Simon for 7 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+23
94.8%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 23 yds to the Charl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.2%
Jermaine Johnson Jr. 3 Yd pass from Andrew Brito (Cooper Garcia Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10FG4 plays · 26 yds · 0:1795% → 98%
MASSDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
CLTDrive 12TD7 plays · 69 yds · 3:0298% → 100%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
97.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 17 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+21
97.6%
Chris Reynolds run for 17 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, illegal use of hands (4 Yards) to the UMass 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13DOWNS8 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.5%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 11 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+12
99.5%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Jessie Britt for 12 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
99.5%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Jessie Britt for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Andrew Brito pass incomplete to Samuel Emilus, broken up by Jacione FugateSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+8
99.5%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 8 yds to the Charl 44Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Andrew Brito pass incomplete to Jessie Britt, broken up by Nafees LyonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-10
99.6%
KEAN, Brett pass complete to ELDER, M. for 12 yards to the UMASS44 (RUANE, Mike), PENALTY CLT holding (RASUO, Dejan) 10 yards to the CLT34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+3
99.6%
Brett Kean pass complete to Benny LeMay for 3 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+19
99.6%
Connor Bowler punt for 39 yds , Isaiah Rodgers returns for 19 yds to the UMass 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
99.7%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 13 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
99.7%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Josiah Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 49Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 22
OWN 39
-5
99.7%
Andrew Brito sacked by Luke Martin and Prince Bemah for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 27
OWN 34
+10
99.7%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Zak Simon for 10 yds to the UMass 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16TD4 plays · 69 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
99.8%
Benny LeMay run for 3 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, illegal use of hands (Dennis Osagiede) to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
99.8%
Brett Kean pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 41 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.8%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 9 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-5
99.8%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Cam Roberson for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-5
99.9%
Andrew Brito sacked by Markees Watts and Timmy Horne for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
50
0
99.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nafees Lyon at the Charl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 0 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 12:26
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+42
99.9%
Connor Bowler punt for 29 yds , Isaiah Rodgers returns for 42 yds for a TD, (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19TD2 plays · 69 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Jessie Britt for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
99.9%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Kyle Horn for 15 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Jessie Britt for 3 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
99.9%
Andrew Brito sacked by Michael Kelly and Prince Bemah for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 39Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Andrew Brito pass incomplete to Samuel Emilus, broken up by Johnny RaySimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
99.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nafees Lyon at the Charl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 68 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q4 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-15
99.9%
RATLIFF, Dylan rush for 11 yards to the UMASS0, clock 07:18, PENALTY CLT face mask (ROBERSON, C.) 15 yards to the UMASS26, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:39
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
99.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Charl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q4 1:10
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Connor Bowler punt for 35 yds , Isaiah Rodgers returns for no gain to the UMass 22 Isaiah Rodgers fumbled, recovered by UMass Sadiq PalmerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 10:36
Cooper Garcia 26 yd FG GOOD
-4.3
FG · Q2 0:00
Jonathan Cruz 53 yd FG GOOD
+2.9
TD · Q2 13:57
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+2.5