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UNT

North Texas 27 at SMU 49

SMU
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:11 · Alvin Kenworthy punt for 73 yds for a touchback SMU Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense+8.0Score differential+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.8Pregame prior+5.4Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:21: Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shane Buechele pass to James Proche for Two-Point Conversion) — SMU win probability +5.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:30: Tre Siggers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +11.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:50: Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 31 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK) — SMU win probability +16.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:03: Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +12.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:37: Xavier Jones run for 10 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK) — SMU win probability +11.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:10UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:26UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:11UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:25SMU 4th & 3 at UNT 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−1.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:40SMU 4th & 5 at UNT 5, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:25SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:56UNT 4th & 25 at UNT 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:03SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:01UNT 4th & 7 at SMU 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:28UNT 4th & 3 at SMU 19, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.5%−0.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−5.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 32, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:53UNT 4th & 5 at SMU 29, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:50UNT 4th & 24 at SMU 38, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:15SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:26SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:21SMU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:30UNT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:50SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:03UNT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:37SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:50SMU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:59SMU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:54UNT Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4557% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.0%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
57.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.0%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
57.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
57.0%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to ROBERSON JR, Re (MOORE, Jameel), PENALTY UNT pass interference (MOORE, Jameel) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
57.0%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+8
57.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 8 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
57.0%
Shane Buechele run for 28 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
57.0%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
58.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-4
58.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+10
58.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 10 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 46 yds , James Proche returns for no gain to the SMU 17 James Proche fumbled, recovered by SMU James ProcheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:4759% → 64%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
59.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 8 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+2
59.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
59.1%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+12
59.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 12 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
59.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+6
59.5%
Shane Buechele run for 6 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
59.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 23 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
59.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+24
64.4%
Xavier Jones run for 24 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.5%
Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
62.0%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
62.3%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
62.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 6 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
62.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 45Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
62.2%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:1267% → 73%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the NoTex 45Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+40
67.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 40 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
67.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shane Buechele pass to James Proche for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:0528% → 26%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
72.4%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
72.4%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-5
72.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
74.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+73
74.2%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 73 yds for a touchback SMU Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:3074% → 79%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
74.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
74.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
75.3%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
75.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-1
77.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
79.3%
Shane Buechele punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8INT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
78.0%
FINE, Mason pass incomplete to LAWRENCE, M., QB hurry by NELSON, Patrick, PENALTY UNT holding (PRESTON III, T.) 10 yards to the UNT10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
78.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+3
78.3%
Tre Siggers run for 13 yds to the NoTex 23 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
78.3%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+19
78.4%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Patrick Nelson return for 19 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4681% → 81%
Q2 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
81.3%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the NoTex 5Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Jameel MooreSimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
81.4%
Russell Roberts 22 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cam JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1020% → 33%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+44
80.3%
Tre Siggers run for 44 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
78.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 7 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+25
78.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 25 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
78.0%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.8%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
72.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
71.9%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
71.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
70.8%
Warren Scott punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
70.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre Torrey, broken up by Zach AbercrumbiaSimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
70.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Jimmy Phillips Jr.Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-10
71.2%
Mason Fine sacked by Delontae Scott and Richard Moore for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 20
OWN 23
-5
71.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 18Similar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 25
OPP 0
0
70.5%
KENWORTHY, A. punt 41 yards to the SMU41, PROCHE, James return to the SMU47, out-of-bounds (MORRIS, Alex), PENALTY UNT face mask off-setting, PENALTY SMU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 25
OWN 18
0
71.6%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:4074% → 89%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
74.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+14
73.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 14 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
74.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-9
74.1%
Shane Buechele sacked by LaDarius Hamilton for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 20
OWN 48
+21
72.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 21 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
89.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 31 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:4115% → 27%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+45
84.8%
Tre Siggers run for 45 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.0%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+19
83.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 19 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
83.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
83.0%
SMU Penalty, offside defense (2 Yards) to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
83.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.0%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
73.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
80.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-2
80.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
79.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
78.6%
Warren Scott punt for 59 yds, downed at the NoTex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
78.3%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17FG
13 plays · 83 yds · 4:5520% → 21%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
80.3%
Tre Siggers run for 17 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.6%
Tre Siggers run for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
78.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
80.9%
Loren Easly run for 11 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
80.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 18 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
79.8%
Loren Easly run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+21
78.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 21 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
78.7%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+2
78.7%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
79.6%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
79.0%
Ethan Mooney 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:1580% → 93%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+35
80.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 35 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
81.6%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+6
81.8%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
81.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 9 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+1
81.3%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
81.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Judah Bell, broken up by Nick HarveySimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
81.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 8 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
93.0%
Xavier Jones run for 10 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:0910% → 10%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Brandon StephensSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.4%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
90.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, roughing passer (Turner Coxe) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
50
+2
89.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
89.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 7 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
89.2%
Loren Easly run for 5 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
89.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Patrick Nelson for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+14
89.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 14 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
88.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
88.7%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+5
89.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 5 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+36
89.9%
Ethan Mooney 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:3093% → 98%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
92.9%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+15
92.7%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to GRANSON, Kylen, PENALTY UNT pass interference (MOORE, Jameel) 15 yards to the SMU40, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
93.3%
CJ Sanders run for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
93.3%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+51
98.2%
Xavier Jones run for 51 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:442% → 2%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
98.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 7 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+15
98.0%
Loren Easly run for 15 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
98.2%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-9
98.2%
Mason Fine sacked by Demerick Gary for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
98.4%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:2299% → 100%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
98.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 15 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
98.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+33
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 33 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
98.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the NoTex 19Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
98.8%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to ROBERSON JR, Re (SANDERS, Makyle), QB hurry by NOVIL, Dion, PENALTY UNT holding (HARVEY, Nick) 10 yards to the UNT9, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
98.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the NoTex 8Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
98.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 11Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 11 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23DOWNS
16 plays · 25 yds · 5:030% → 0%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+15
99.9%
SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Rodney Clemons) to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Mason Fine run for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+9
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Tre Siggers for 9 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-1
99.9%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+5
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 5 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
99.9%
Mason Fine sacked by Demerick Gary for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 12
OPP 26
-12
99.9%
Mason Fine sacked by Patrick Nelson for a loss of 12 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 24
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24FUMBLE
1 play · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Brandon Stephens run for 4 yds to the NoTex 46 Brandon Stephens fumbled, forced by Taylor Robinson, recovered by NoTex Makyle SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
100.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 8 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+7
100.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 7 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Deion Hair-GriffinSimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
100.0%
Jason Bean run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+8
100.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Greg White for 8 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
100.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Greg White for 7 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+6
100.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 6 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
100.0%
Evan Johnson run for 6 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
TaMerik Williams run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.8%
TaMerik Williams run for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
TaMerik Williams run for 1 yd to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:50
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 31 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK)
+16.3
TD · Q2 2:03
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-12
TD · Q2 10:30
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com