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TNST

Tennessee State 26 at Middle Tennessee 45

MTSU
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadTNST aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreTNST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:34 · Kaleb Mosley punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MIDDLETENN 45 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the MTnSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior+41.5Home team on offense−1.4Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:27: Micheal Hughes pass complete to Chris Rowland for 60 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK) — TNST win probability +7.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TNST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:00: DeMarco Corbin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TNST win probability +16.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 14:17: Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:10: Te'kendrick Roberson run for 26 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK) — TNST win probability +19.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 5:16: Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 28 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TNST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TNST 4th & 8 at MTSU 8, tied
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:11MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:34TNST 4th & 8 at TNST 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:55MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:11TNST 4th & 12 at TNST 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:09MTSU 4th & 11 at TNST 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:58TNST 4th & 15 at TNST 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:47TNST 4th & 1 at TNST 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:48TNST 4th & 2 at TNST 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:43TNST 4th & 12 at TNST 17, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TNST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:34TNST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:05MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:47MTSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:27TNST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:48MTSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:00TNST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:17MTSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:10TNST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:16MTSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:29MTSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TNSTDrive 1INT
15 plays · 65 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
95.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 3 yds to the TenSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
95.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 3 yds to the TenSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+8
95.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 8 yds to the TenSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
95.5%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Steven Newbold for 29 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
95.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+6
95.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
95.5%
Chris Rowland run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
95.5%
Cameron Rosendahl run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
95.5%
DeMarco Corbin run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
95.5%
TENNESSEE ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
95.5%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Chris Rowland for 1 yd to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
95.5%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Miles Cavitt for 4 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.5%
Cameron Rosendahl pass incomplete to Steven NewboldSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.5%
Chris Rowland pass intercepted, touchback. Reed Blankenship return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
94.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 17 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 1 yd to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
94.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
94.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
93.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:557% → 7%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 4 yds to the TenSt 24Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-20
93.4%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Cameron Rosendahl for a loss of 15 yards to the TenSt 9 TENNESSEE ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (Cameron Rosendahl) to the TenSt 4Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 26
OWN 4
+96
92.8%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Chris Rowland for 96 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
92.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for 18 yds to the TenSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
93.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds Ty Lee fumbled, forced by Ray Coggins, recovered by TenSt Dante' Ferguson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
92.6%
Shawn McColley run for 2 yds to the TenSt 25Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Cameron Rosendahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Cameron Rosendahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+40
92.8%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MIDDLETENN 45 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the MTnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ruben Garnett for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
92.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
91.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chris Rowland at the TenSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for no gain to the TenSt 25Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.5%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Steven Newbold for 6 yds to the TenSt 31Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
91.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 4 yds to the TenSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
91.4%
DeMarco Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the TenSt 33Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Cameron Rosendahl pass incomplete to Chris Rowland, broken up by Cody SmithSimilar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
91.6%
Cameron Rosendahl pass incomplete to Steven NewboldSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
91.7%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 35 yds, downed at the MTnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 4:2591% → 89%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
90.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 12 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
90.8%
Brad Anderson run for 15 yds to the TenSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
90.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 12 yds to the TenSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
91.0%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the TenSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-9
91.0%
Brad Anderson run for 6 yds to the TenSt 18 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the TenSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
91.0%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to BRUCE, Jocquez, PENALTY TSU offside (95) 5 yards to the TSU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+5
91.0%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to UPTON, Isiah (ARMSTRONG, N.), PENALTY TSU offside (BROWN, Mekhi) 5 yards to the TSU23, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
91.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 7 yds to the TenSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
91.0%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the TenSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
90.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds to the TenSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
91.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-1
91.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 13Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
88.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
88.9%
Crews Holt 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 9INT
18 plays · 83 yds · 5:4911% → 16%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
88.8%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 10 yds to the TenSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
88.7%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Chris Rowland for 4 yds to the TenSt 19Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-1
88.7%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 18Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+12
89.0%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Steven Newbold for 12 yds to the TenSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
88.4%
Seth Rowland run for 6 yds to the TenSt 36Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+38
88.2%
Seth Rowland run for 38 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
87.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-5
87.5%
TENNESSEE ST Penalty, false start (Chris Rowland) to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-10
83.9%
ROSENDAHL, C. pass complete to ROBERSON, T. for loss of 2 yards to the MT28 (SHEPHERD, Brett), PENALTY TSU holding (SIMMONS, L.) 10 yards to the MT36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+7
84.5%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Te'kendrick Roberson for 7 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
84.2%
Cameron Rosendahl pass incomplete to Chris Rowland, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+15
85.3%
ZITA, Antonio field goal attempt from 46 BLOCKED, recovered by MT TEAM at MT30, clock 05:20 (blocked by BROWN, Justin), out-of-bounds, TEAM for no gain to the MT30, PENALTY MT personal foul (THOMAS, DQ) 15 yards to the MT14, 1ST DOWN TSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
83.3%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+6
83.6%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
83.6%
Cameron Rosendahl pass intercepted, touchback. Reed Blankenship return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
89.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 80 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 3:0710% → 10%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
90.4%
Seth Rowland run for 7 yds to the TenSt 18Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+3
90.2%
Seth Rowland run for 3 yds to the TenSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
90.3%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Chris Rowland for 5 yds to the TenSt 26Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
90.0%
Seth Rowland run for 6 yds to the TenSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
89.9%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Steven Newbold for 8 yds to the TenSt 40Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+2
89.3%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Chris Rowland for 2 yds to the TenSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.5%
Cameron Rosendahl pass incomplete to Dayron Johnson, broken up by Justin BrownSimilar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
89.7%
Cameron Rosendahl pass incomplete to Te'kendrick RobersonSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-5
90.1%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Te'kendrick Roberson for a loss of 5 yards to the TenSt 37Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
89.9%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 57 yds, downed at the MTnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
88.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+17
88.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
88.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 13 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
88.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
89.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 17 yds to the TenSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1387% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+43
87.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for 43 yds to the TenSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
88.8%
Yusuf Ali run for 1 yd to the TenSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-1
88.8%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 22Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
92.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 22 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 14TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 5:208% → 16%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
91.9%
Chris Rowland run for a loss of 4 yards to the TenSt 20Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+13
92.1%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 13 yds to the TenSt 33Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+7
91.8%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 7 yds to the TenSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
91.5%
Micheal Hughes pass complete to Chris Rowland for 7 yds to the TenSt 47Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
91.2%
Micheal Hughes run for 1 yd to the TenSt 48Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
91.3%
Seth Rowland run for 1 yd to the TenSt 49Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
91.6%
Micheal Hughes run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
50
0
91.1%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
50
-10
91.3%
HUGHES, Micheal pass incomplete to NEWBOLD, Steven (ANDERSON, D.), PENALTY TSU holding (CAVITT, Miles) 10 yards to the TSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+60
84.1%
Micheal Hughes pass complete to Chris Rowland for 60 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3985% → 93%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
85.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
86.5%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 13
OWN 0
0
84.8%
O'HARA, Asher pass complete to ENGLAND-CHISOLM for 62 yards to the TSU0, clock 06:19, PENALTY TSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MT holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+17
85.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 17 yds to the TenSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 2 yds to the TenSt 43Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
86.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the TenSt 36Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+6
86.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the TenSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
92.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 30 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.5%
Micheal Hughes pass complete to Miles Cavitt for 2 yds to the TenSt 37Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
91.2%
Micheal Hughes pass complete to Chris Rowland for 7 yds to the TenSt 44Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
90.9%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 43Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
91.7%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
92.0%
O'HARA, Asher rush for 18 yards to the MT33, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MT holding (GILCHRIST, Will) 7 yards to the MT8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 17
OWN 8
-7
92.0%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Rhashaun Epting for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 24
OWN 1
+15
91.9%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted Nick Harper Jr. return for 15 yds to the MTnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 18TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.5%
DeMarco Corbin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4383% → 94%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
82.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 21 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
84.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 16 yds to the TenSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
85.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 10 yds to the TenSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
85.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 13 yds to the TenSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
85.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 14 yds to the TenSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 20TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:078% → 30%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
92.1%
Micheal Hughes pass complete to Chris Rowland for 5 yds to the TenSt 33Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
91.8%
Seth Rowland run for 5 yds to the TenSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
91.6%
Micheal Hughes pass complete to Chris Rowland for 10 yds to the TenSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
91.3%
Seth Rowland run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
90.8%
Micheal Hughes pass incomplete to Chris Rowland, broken up by Reed BlankenshipSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
91.0%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
91.0%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+9
91.1%
Micheal Hughes pass complete to Dayron Johnson for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
90.1%
Micheal Hughes run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
70.5%
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 26 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:5483% → 96%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
83.0%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+10
82.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
83.4%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
82.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ Windham, broken up by Nick Harper Jr.Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+11
81.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
84.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 12 yds to the TenSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
85.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 17 yds to the TenSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
86.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 4 yds to the TenSt 28Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+28
96.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 28 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:335% → 4%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
95.1%
Chris Rowland run for a loss of 2 yards to the TenSt 17Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+5
95.2%
Cameron Rosendahl pass complete to Chris Rowland for 5 yds to the TenSt 22Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-5
95.2%
TENNESSEE ST Penalty, false start (Raekwon Allen) to the TenSt 17Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 12
OWN 17
0
95.3%
Cameron Rosendahl pass incomplete to Te'kendrick RobersonSimilar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
95.9%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 2:0597% → 99%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
96.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
96.8%
Brad Anderson run for 8 yds to the TenSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
96.9%
ANDERSON, Brad rush for 1 yard to the TSU42 (GREEN, Josh), PENALTY TSU offside 5 yards to the TSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+38
99.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 38 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
98.1%
Seth Rowland run for 17 yds to the TenSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
98.0%
Seth Rowland run for 4 yds to the TenSt 37Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
98.0%
Seth Rowland run for no gain to the TenSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:10
Te'kendrick Roberson run for 26 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)
-19.6
TD · Q3 1:00
DeMarco Corbin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-16.4
TD · Q4 5:16
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 28 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com