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UCF

UCF 48 at Florida Atlantic 14

FAU
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:03 · Dylan Barnas 37 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior−33.2Home team on offense−6.3Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:01: Adrian Killins Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +5.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:51: Vladimir Rivas 48 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +1.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:07: Otis Anderson run for 39 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:08: Vladimir Rivas 31 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +8.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:37: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 74 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 12 of 14UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:23FAU 4th & 5 at UCF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:23FAU 4th & 21 at UCF 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:36FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:52UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:15FAU 4th & 8 at UCF 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:03UCF 4th & 13 at FAU 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:07FAU 4th & 16 at UCF 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:07UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:30FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:29UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:50FAU 4th & 20 at FAU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 9:56UCF 4th & 2 at FAU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.9%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:51FAU 4th & 18 at UCF 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:08FAU 4th & 10 at UCF 13, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−3.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 15:00FAU 4th & 18 at FAU 38, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−2.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 12:26UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 40, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:13FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 7:37FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 42, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 3:19FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 29, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 15:00UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 36, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:50UCF 4th & 5 at FAU 7, up 34
    Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:33FAU 4th & 13 at FAU 6, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:23UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:36UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:01UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:07UCF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:37UCF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:19UCF Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:30UCF Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:50FAU Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3787% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
12.9%
Greg McCrae run for 20 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
12.9%
Otis Anderson run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
12.9%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
12.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+23
12.9%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (James Pierre) to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
12.9%
Greg McCrae run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
13.3%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
50
+3
13.4%
Larry McCammon III run for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
13.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Larry McCammon III for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-2
13.4%
Larry McCammon III run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+8
13.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 8 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
13.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 13 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
13.5%
Larry McCammon III run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-10
13.5%
Chris Robison sacked by Landon Woodson for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 21
OPP 35
0
13.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 21
OPP 35
0
13.3%
Chris Robison punt blocked by TEAM blocked by TEAMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:2486% → 87%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
14.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+57
13.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 57 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.5%
Malcolm Davidson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
13.5%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
13.5%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
13.4%
Matthew Hayball punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
12.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
13.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
13.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
13.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.5%
Chris Robison run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
13.5%
Larry McCammon III run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
13.7%
Larry McCammon III run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
13.8%
Malcolm Davidson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
13.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Dante Cousart for 5 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
13.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris Harrison, broken up by Aaron RobinsonSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
13.8%
Larry McCammon III run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+4
13.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 4 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
13.7%
Matthew Hayball punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:5187% → 87%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
13.4%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
13.3%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+9
13.4%
Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+45
13.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 45 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
13.1%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-5
13.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 13
OPP 20
0
13.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
13.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre Nixon, broken up by Chris TooleySimilar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
13.5%
Dylan Barnas 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 3:5614% → 14%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
13.6%
James Charles run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
13.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+17
13.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 17 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
14.1%
James Charles run for 8 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
14.1%
James Charles run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
14.1%
Larry McCammon III run for 5 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
14.1%
Larry McCammon III run for 1 yd to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
14.1%
Malcolm Davidson run for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+16
14.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 16 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
14.8%
Malcolm Davidson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
14.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 23
-5
14.6%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Junior Diaz) to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 28
0
14.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Dante CousartSimilar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+46
14.2%
Vladimir Rivas 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
13.4%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
13.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
13.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
13.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
14.1%
Larry McCammon III run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+7
14.0%
Chris Robison run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
14.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
14.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
13.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
13.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
13.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre Nixon UCF Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
13.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
14.1%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+20
13.9%
Larry McCammon III run for 20 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
14.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Deangelo Antoine, broken up by Aaron RobinsonSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
14.4%
Malcolm Davidson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 11
OPP 42
-9
14.2%
Chris Robison sacked by Noah Hancock and Mason Cholewa for a loss of 9 yards to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 20
OWN 49
+3
13.8%
Matthew Hayball punt for 38 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 3 yds to the FLAATLANTC 48 UCF Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 3:5587% → 92%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
13.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 8 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+19
13.1%
Greg McCrae run for 19 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
12.8%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+11
13.0%
Greg McCrae run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-1
12.9%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+4
13.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
12.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre Nixon, broken up by Chris TooleySimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
12.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
12.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
12.7%
GABRIEL, Dillon pass incomplete to ANDERSON, O., PENALTY FAU pass interference (GILBERT, Zyon) 14 yards to the FAU19, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
12.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
12.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+11
7.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:109% → 11%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 4 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
9.0%
James Charles run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
9.1%
ROBISON, Chris pass incomplete to BRYANT, Harriso, PENALTY UCF pass interference (CLARKE, Nevelle) 15 yards to the FAU46, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
9.7%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+32
9.6%
Malcolm Davidson run for 32 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
10.1%
Malcolm Davidson run for no gain to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-4
10.0%
Chris Robison sacked by Eric Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-4
9.5%
Chris Robison sacked by Brendon Hayes for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 18
OPP 30
+48
11.2%
Vladimir Rivas 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:4491% → 97%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
8.9%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+13
8.9%
Greg McCrae run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
8.7%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+39
3.1%
Otis Anderson run for 39 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 0:593% → 11%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
2.5%
Malcolm Davidson run for 28 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
2.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+14
2.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 14 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
3.0%
Larry McCammon III run for 5 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+11
2.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 11 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
2.6%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
2.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
2.2%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Antwan CollierSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
10.5%
Vladimir Rivas 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
7.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
8.4%
Larry McCammon III run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
8.2%
Chris Robison run for no gain to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+13
8.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 13 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
9.1%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-8
9.0%
Chris Robison run for a loss of 8 yards to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 38
0
8.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
8.2%
Matthew Hayball punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
5.5%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+21
5.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 21 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
5.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
5.3%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Akileis Leroy for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
5.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
5.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:347% → 4%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
6.6%
Chris Robison run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
6.6%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Harrison Bryant) to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
6.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John Mitchell, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+15
6.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Larry McCammon III for 15 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
7.0%
Larry McCammon III run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 34 Larry McCammon III fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Chris RobisonSimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+6
6.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Dante Cousart for 6 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
4.3%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
4.2%
Matthew Hayball punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
1.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 74 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
3.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 13 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
3.1%
Daniel Leconte run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
3.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Dante Cousart for 5 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-4
3.1%
Daniel Leconte run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
3.0%
Matthew Hayball punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:1399% → 100%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
1.1%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+32
1.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 32 yds to the FLAATLANTC 35 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
1.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
1.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+13
1.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 13 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.8%
Larry McCammon III run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
0.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris Harrison, broken up by Tay GowanSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
0.7%
Matthew Hayball punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1299% → 100%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
0.6%
THOMPSON, Ben. rush for 52 yards to the FAU16 (BROWN, Da'Von), PENALTY UCF holding (BACK, Kyle) 10 yards to the UCF22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 20
OWN 22
0
0.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+6
0.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+8
0.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for 8 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
0.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 43 yds, downed at the FlAtl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.3%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Tay Gowan return for no gain to the FlAtl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
0.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.3%
Daniel Leconte run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+21
0.3%
Daniel Leconte run for 21 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
0.3%
Larry McCammon III run for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+9
0.3%
Larry McCammon III run for 9 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
0.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 17 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
0.3%
Chris Robison run for 3 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-7
0.3%
Larry McCammon III run for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 14
OPP 21
+10
0.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John Raine, broken up by Dyllon Lester for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive holding (Dyllon Lester) to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
0.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 8 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
0.3%
Larry McCammon III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Robison pass to Dante Cousart for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29DOWNS
11 plays · 66 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
0.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 30 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
0.3%
Trilion Coles run for no gain to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-2
0.3%
Trilion Coles run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+15
0.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
0.3%
Quadry Jones pass complete to Ke'von Ahmad for 17 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
0.3%
Quadry Jones run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
0.3%
Trilion Coles run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
0.3%
Trilion Coles run for no gain to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 5
OPP 7
-2
0.3%
Quadry Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
0.1%
Tyrek Tisdale run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+6
0.1%
Tyrek Tisdale run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-5
0.1%
Justin Agner sacked by Stephon Zayas for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 13
OWN 6
0
0.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:08
Vladimir Rivas 31 yd FG GOOD
+8.3
TD · Q2 1:07
Otis Anderson run for 39 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q2 6:01
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com