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ALCN

Alcorn State 10 at Southern Miss 38

USM
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadALCN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreALCN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:43 · Corey McCullough 40 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+39.4Home team on offense+2.6Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Andrew Stein 19 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:43: De'Shawn Waller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Corey McCullough KICK) — ALCN win probability +6.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:26: Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 55 yds for a TD, (Z. Everett Run For Two-point Conversion) — USM win probability +4.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:54: Corey McCullough 44 yd FG GOOD — ALCN win probability +1.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:15: Jack Abraham run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ALCN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 7:33USM 4th & 3 at ALCN 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:43ALCN 4th & 8 at USM 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:43USM 4th & 13 at USM 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:29ALCN 4th & 16 at ALCN 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:21USM 4th & 1 at USM 15, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:26ALCN 4th & 18 at ALCN 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:22ALCN 4th & 13 at ALCN 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00USM 4th & 2 at ALCN 2, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:54ALCN 4th & 8 at USM 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:40ALCN 4th & 10 at ALCN 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:52USM 4th & 5 at ALCN 7, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:52ALCN 4th & 5 at ALCN 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:27USM 4th & 7 at USM 49, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:00ALCN 4th & 12 at ALCN 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ALCN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 10:43ALCN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:26USM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:15USM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALCNDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · -12 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.0%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 11 yds to the AlcSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
96.0%
ALCORN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AlcSt 31Similar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+7
96.0%
Noah Johnson run for 7 yds to the AlcSt 38Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
96.0%
Waller, D. rush left for no gain to the ALCN38 (LATHAM, S.), PENALTY ALCN personal foul (Anthony Jr., J.) 10 yards to the ALCN28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 18
OWN 28
-7
96.0%
Noah Johnson pass complete to De'Shawn Waller for a loss of 7 yards to the AlcSt 21Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 25
OWN 21
-8
96.0%
Noah Johnson sacked by Terry Whittington for a loss of 8 yards to the AlcSt 13Similar
Q1 14:46
4TH & 33
OWN 13
0
96.0%
Corey McCullough punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AlcSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 3:3996% → 95%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
95.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 8 yds to the AlcSt 34Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-8
95.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 2 yds to the AlcSt 32 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Tim Jones) to the AlcSt 42Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
95.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 43Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+14
95.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 14 yds to the AlcSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
95.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 17 yds to the AlcSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
95.7%
Jack Abraham run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 13Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+7
95.7%
ABRAHAM, Jack middle pass incomplete to TERRY, Trevor (Kinsler, Keyron), PENALTY ALCN roughing passer (Henderson, D.) 7 yards to the ALCN6, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
95.7%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 4Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
95.7%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 3Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.2%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
95.2%
Andrew Stein 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 4MISSED FG
17 plays · 52 yds · 7:505% → 6%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
De'Shawn Waller run for no gain to the AlcSt 25Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.0%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 6 yds to the AlcSt 31Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
95.0%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 10 yds to the AlcSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to De'Shawn Waller for no gain to the AlcSt 41Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
95.0%
De'Shawn Waller run for no gain to the AlcSt 41Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
95.0%
Johnson, Noah sideline pass incomplete, QB hurry by WHITTINGTON, T., PENALTY USM offside defense (WHITTINGTON, T.) 5 yards to the ALCN46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+7
94.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Nigel Wood for 7 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
94.9%
Niko Duffey run for 2 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+9
94.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 9 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
94.9%
Niko Duffey run for 9 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-1
94.8%
Niko Duffey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+3
94.9%
Noah Johnson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
94.8%
Noah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
94.8%
De'Shawn Waller run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
93.6%
Noah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
93.8%
Corey McCullough 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
93.8%
Dee Baker run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+1
93.7%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-5
93.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Zac Everett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Juan Anthony Jr. at the AlcSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
93.2%
De'Shawn Waller run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 45Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-3
93.1%
De'Shawn Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the AlcSt 42Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-7
93.4%
Noah Johnson sacked by Swayze Bozeman for a loss of 7 yards to the AlcSt 35Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
93.8%
Corey McCullough punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
92.9%
Steven Anderson run for 7 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+1
93.0%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+1
92.8%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
92.6%
Zac Everett punt for 45 yds, downed at the AlcSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 8INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:388% → 7%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
92.5%
De'Shawn Waller run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 41Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
92.6%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Niko DuffeySimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
93.2%
Noah Johnson pass intercepted Avery White return for no gain to the AlcSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.4%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Allen Bruce return for no gain to the AlcSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:057% → 7%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.2%
Waller, D. rush up middle for 7 yards to the ALCN27 (BOOTHE, Racheem), PENALTY ALCN illegal motion 0 yards to the ALCN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.2%
De'Shawn Waller run for no gain to the AlcSt 20Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
93.3%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 12 yds to the AlcSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
93.0%
De'Shawn Waller run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 33Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
93.1%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Chris BlairSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-9
92.8%
Noah Johnson sacked by Terry Whittington for a loss of 9 yards to the AlcSt 24Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 18
OWN 24
0
93.1%
Corey McCullough punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:0092% → 93%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
92.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 18 yds to the AlcSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
92.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 6 yds to the SoMis 41 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 19
OWN 44
+21
92.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 21 yds Jordan Mitchell fumbled, forced by Javen Morrison, recovered by AlcSt Javen MorrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
92.2%
De'Shawn Waller run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 38Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-10
92.0%
Johnson, Noah screen pass complete to Waller, D. for 13 yards to the USM49, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ALCN holding 10 yards to the ALCN28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+4
92.6%
Niko Duffey run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 32Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
92.7%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for no gain to the AlcSt 32Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
92.9%
Corey McCullough punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 1:3592% → 94%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
92.0%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
91.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+22
92.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 22 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
93.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+54
92.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 54 yds to the AlcSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
93.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 5 yds to the AlcSt 2Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.0%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
94.0%
Andrew Stein 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:176% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.7%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 7 yds to the AlcSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
93.4%
De'Shawn Waller run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.5%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Chris Blair, broken up by Torrence BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
93.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to De'Shawn Waller for a loss of 3 yards to the AlcSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+37
93.8%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 37 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
92.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+2
92.6%
Noah Johnson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+8
92.6%
Noah Johnson run for 8 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
92.6%
De'Shawn Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+1
92.8%
De'Shawn Waller run for 1 yd to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
86.0%
De'Shawn Waller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Corey McCullough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:1089% → 95%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
88.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 9 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 1
OWN 0
+6
88.6%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST down ALCORN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Neil McLaurinSimilar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+22
88.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 22 yds to the AlcSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-7
89.8%
Jack Abraham sacked by Creo Argue Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+55
94.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 55 yds for a TD, (Z. Everett Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 16FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:286% → 8%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
94.0%
Noah Johnson pass complete to De'Shawn Waller for 2 yds to the AlcSt 21Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+18
94.5%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Tim McNair Jr. for 18 yds to the AlcSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
94.1%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 6 yds to the AlcSt 45Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+8
93.8%
De'Shawn Waller run for 8 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.7%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Raidarious AndersonSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
93.9%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Chris BlairSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+18
94.2%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Niko Duffey for 18 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
93.2%
De'Shawn Waller run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
93.2%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Raidarious AndersonSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
93.8%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Chris Blair, broken up by Shannon ShowersSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
92.5%
Corey McCullough 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:3393% → 98%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Trevor TerrySimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
93.2%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+14
92.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 14 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
93.6%
Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds to the AlcSt 47Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 4
OWN 0
+15
92.6%
ABRAHAM, Jack SH pass complete to JONES, Tim for no gain to the ALCN47, PENALTY USM holding 10 yards to the USM43, NO PLAY, PENALTY ALCN personal foul 15 yards to the ALCN42, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
93.6%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 41Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
93.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+25
93.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 25 yds to the AlcSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
93.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 3 yds to the AlcSt 13Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
93.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 9Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-5
93.4%
Dee Baker run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 4 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Tim Jones) to the AlcSt 14Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
98.0%
Jack Abraham run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 18PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:353% → 1%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Tim McNair Jr.Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.1%
De'Shawn Waller run for 14 yds to the AlcSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Noah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-10
97.0%
Duffey, Niko rush left for 10 yards to the ALCN49, PENALTY ALCN holding (Ibrahim, M.) 10 yards to the ALCN29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Noah Johnson sacked by Santrell Latham for 0 yards to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+10
97.2%
Noah Johnson pass complete to LeCharles Pringle for 10 yds to the AlcSt 39Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+80
99.4%
Corey McCullough punt for 41 yds , Jaylond Adams returns for 80 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.4%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to De'Shawn WallerSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
99.4%
Jonathon Bolton run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 12 Jonathon Bolton fumbled, forced by Racheem Boothe, recovered by SoMis Eriq KitchenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.8%
Steven Anderson run for 7 yds to the AlcSt 5Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-2
99.7%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 7Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
99.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Trevor TerrySimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
99.9%
Andrew Stein 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Niko Duffey run for 8 yds to the AlcSt 33Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.9%
Niko Duffey run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Niko Duffey run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 36Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Noah Johnson run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 40Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Noah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+13
99.9%
Corey McCullough punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 34 , Jaylond Adams returns for 13 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Dee Baker run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+11
99.9%
Dee Baker run for 11 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Dee Baker run for no gain to the SoMis 46 Dee Baker fumbled, forced by Daylon Burks, recovered by SoMisSimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Dee Baker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Tate Whatley run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 47Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 3
OPP 47
-4
99.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Zac Everett punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Marquise Forman run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 24Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
100.0%
Felix Harper pass complete to Jerimiah Green for 1 yd to the AlcSt 25Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-7
100.0%
Felix Harper sacked by Hayes Maples for a loss of 7 yards to the AlcSt 18Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Corey McCullough punt for 50 yds, downed at the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
100.0%
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
100.0%
Jordan Kempf run for 8 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+7
100.0%
Jordan Kempf run for 7 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
100.0%
Dee Baker run for 15 yds to the AlcSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
100.0%
KEMPF, Jordan rush left for 37 yards to the ALCN0, clock 00:43, PENALTY USM illegal block (BARHAM, Barrett) 2 yards to the ALCN39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 12
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Dee Baker run for no gain to the AlcSt 39Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+5
100.0%
Jordan Kempf run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:43
De'Shawn Waller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Corey McCullough KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q3 8:26
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 55 yds for a TD, (Z. Everett Run For Two-point Conversion)
+4.8
TD · Q3 0:15
Jack Abraham run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com