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ACU

Abilene Christian 31 at North Texas 51

UNT
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:01 · Sema'J Davis run for 7 yds to the AblCh 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:37: Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 49 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +2.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:45: Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 12 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:15: Tracy James 19 Yd Run (Blair Zepeda Kick) — ACU win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:01: - 37 kickoff for 61 yds , Deion Hair-Griffin return for 96 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:35: Tracy James 5 Yd Run (Blair Zepeda Kick) — ACU win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ACU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:44ACU 4th & 6 at ACU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50ACU 4th & 23 at ACU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:51UNT 4th & 11 at ACU 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:51ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:09UNT 4th & 1 at ACU 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ACU 4th & 10 at ACU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:25ACU 4th & 14 at ACU 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:27UNT 4th & 11 at ACU 39, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:15ACU 4th & 12 at UNT 26, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:47UNT 4th & 4 at ACU 4, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:47ACU 4th & 5 at ACU 30, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:38UNT 4th & 5 at midfield, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:35UNT 4th & 1 at midfield, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:17UNT 4th & 4 at ACU 11, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:57UNT 4th & 7 at ACU 41, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 14:44UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:50UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:37UNT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:45UNT Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:15ACU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:01UNT Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:35ACU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:57ACU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
92.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 32 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.4%
Tracy James run for 4 yds to the AblCh 29Similar
Q1 14:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
92.4%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
92.4%
Simon Laryea punt for 45 yds, downed at the NoTex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 1:0892% → 93%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+57
92.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 57 yds to the AblCh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
92.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the AblCh 17Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
92.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 17 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
92.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 14 yds to the AblCh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
92.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 14 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.3%
Billy McCrary run for no gain to the AblCh 48Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
92.4%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-5
92.4%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 43Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 15
OWN 43
-8
92.4%
Luke Anthony sacked by Jaxon Gibbs for a loss of 8 yards to the AblCh 35Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 23
OWN 35
0
92.4%
Simon Laryea punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:5992% → 93%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 10 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
92.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 10 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
92.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 6 yds to the AblCh 49Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
92.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the AblCh 47Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+13
92.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 13 yds to the AblCh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
92.4%
Nic Smith run for 9 yds to the AblCh 25Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
92.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the AblCh 25Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
92.4%
Loren Easly run for 1 yd to the AblCh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
92.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 4 yds to the AblCh 20Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+9
92.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 9 yds to the AblCh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
92.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 12Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
92.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
92.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
92.9%
Ethan Mooney 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
92.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 3 yds to the AblCh 18Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
92.8%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Tracy JamesSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
92.8%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
92.9%
Simon Laryea punt for 42 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for no gain to the AblCh 18 ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, kick catching interference (Qua'Shawn Washington) to the AblCh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5393% → 93%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
93.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 15 yds to the AblCh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
93.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 9 yds to the AblCh 21Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 1
OPP 21
-2
93.2%
Mason Fine sacked by Kameron Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 23Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
93.1%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds to the AblCh 21Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-2
93.4%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:047% → 7%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
92.9%
Luke Anthony run for no gain to the AblCh 23Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
92.9%
Billy McCrary run for 2 yds to the AblCh 25Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+11
92.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 11 yds to the AblCh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
92.8%
Tracy James run for 9 yds to the AblCh 45Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
92.6%
Tracy James run for no gain to the AblCh 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
93.0%
Tracy James run for 2 yds to the AblCh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
93.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-1
93.2%
Billy McCrary run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+3
93.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Javorian Miller for 3 yds to the AblCh 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
93.4%
Simon Laryea punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9INT
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+24
93.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 24 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
94.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
94.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 12 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.3%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Adonis Davis return for no gain to the AblCh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
93.4%
Kobe Clark run for 3 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+8
93.4%
Tracy James run for 8 yds to the AblCh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.3%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Tracy JamesSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-9
93.4%
Luke Anthony sacked by Dion Novil for a loss of 9 yards to the AblCh 23Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+5
93.5%
Billy McCrary run for 5 yds to the AblCh 28Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 14
OWN 28
+57
93.6%
Simon Laryea punt for 47 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 27 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NoTex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:3295% → 97%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
94.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 10 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
94.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+8
94.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
94.5%
Loren Easly run for 5 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
94.7%
Loren Easly run for 7 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
94.7%
Loren Easly run for 5 yds to the AblCh 49Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+49
96.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 49 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 9 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
95.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Josh Fink for 8 yds to the AblCh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
95.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Branden Hohenstein for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 2
50
-5
95.6%
Luke Anthony run for a loss of 5 yards to the AblCh 38 Luke Anthony fumbled, recovered by NoTex Tyreke DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:4297% → 99%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Nic SmithSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
96.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for no gain to the AblCh 38Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-1
96.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 39Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 11
OPP 39
+26
96.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 26 yds to the AblCh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
96.9%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the AblCh 12Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
99.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 12 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:301% → 4%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Sema'J Davis run for 2 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+33
99.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Justus Lee for 33 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
98.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Billy McCrary for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
98.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Javorian Miller for 7 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+12
98.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Javorian Miller for 12 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
95.7%
Tracy James 19 Yd Run (Blair Zepeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
99.2%
Tracy James run for 35 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 1 yd to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+3
99.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Branden Hohenstein for 3 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+12
99.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 12 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.3%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Josh FinkSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-5
99.3%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+3
99.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 3 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
99.4%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Javorian Miller, broken up by Joe OzougwuSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
98.9%
Blair Zepeda 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.3%
Mason Fine run for 11 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.8%
Tracy James run for 6 yds to the AblCh 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
98.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 2 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
98.7%
Tracy James run for 3 yds to the AblCh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
98.8%
Kobe Clark run for 2 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
98.8%
Sema'J Davis run for 1 yd to the AblCh 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
98.8%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Javorian MillerSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+26
98.8%
Simon Laryea punt for 45 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 26 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:3699% → 100%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.4%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+54
99.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 54 yds to the AblCh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Alex LoftonSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.4%
Loren Easly run for no gain to the AblCh 4Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
99.5%
Ethan Mooney 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
Sema'J Davis run for 3 yds to the AblCh 28Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.3%
Billy McCrary run for 2 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete, broken up by Taylor RobinsonSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Simon Laryea punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 10 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
99.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+2
99.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Loren Easly for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 5
50
0
99.7%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kobe Clark at the AblCh 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
99.7%
Tracy James run for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 11Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+14
99.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 14 yds to the AblCh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Tracy James run for 5 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.7%
Javorian Miller run for 1 yd to the AblCh 31Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
99.6%
Billy McCrary 69 Yd Run (Blair Zepeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
99.7%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+27
99.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 27 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the AblCh 23Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Loren Easly run for 23 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:070% → 1%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+34
99.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 34 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.8%
Tracy James run for 3 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
99.8%
Billy McCrary run for 1 yd to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+15
99.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cam Johnson) to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Paxton Bergdoll for 3 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Sema'J Davis pass incomplete to Branden Hohenstein, broken up by Taylor RobinsonSimilar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+11
99.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 11 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
99.8%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+8
99.9%
Sema'J Davis run for 8 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.8%
Billy McCrary run for 1 yd to the NoTex 5Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.9%
Tracy James 5 Yd Run (Blair Zepeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 7:1899% → 100%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
99.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, IB (-15 Yards) to the NoTex 26Similar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+14
99.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 14 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+5
99.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 5 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
99.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 1
50
+12
99.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kyleb Howell for 12 yds to the AblCh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.2%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the AblCh 36Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+9
99.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 9 yds to the AblCh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
99.2%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the AblCh 26Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deion Hair-GriffinSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+9
99.2%
Loren Easly run for 9 yds to the AblCh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
99.2%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 7 yards to the AblCh 22 Mason Fine fumbled, forced by Kameron Hill,Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+2
99.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds to the AblCh 20Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 13
OPP 20
+9
99.2%
Mason Fine run for 9 yds to the AblCh 11Similar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
99.9%
Ethan Mooney 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
99.4%
Josh Fink 64 Yd pass from Luke Anthony (Blair Zepeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.4%
Jason Bean run for 4 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
99.4%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+8
99.4%
Nic Smith run for 8 yds to the AblCh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
99.4%
Jason Bean run for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 47 Jason Bean fumbled, recovered by NoTex Nic SmithSimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+6
99.4%
Nic Smith run for 6 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
99.3%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 38 yds, downed at the AblCh 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
99.5%
Tracy James run for 4 yds to the AblCh 7Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+3
99.5%
Tracy James run for 3 yds to the AblCh 10Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+3
99.5%
Tracy James run for 3 yds to the AblCh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 4 yds to the AblCh 17Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+7
99.5%
Sema'J Davis run for 7 yds to the AblCh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:01
- 37 kickoff for 61 yds , Deion Hair-Griffin return for 96 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 1:15
Tracy James 19 Yd Run (Blair Zepeda Kick)
-2.9
TD · Q2 2:45
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 12 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com